HomerChampless
Well-Known Member
No. The Iowa coaches have made no changes. When is comes to the defense, some Hawkeyenation posters are completely disregarding that.. The defense is, evidently, sacred.
Unbelievable statistic regarding our performance as double digit favorites
- Thread starter SpiderRico
- Start date
HomerChampless
Well-Known Member
I can explain some of these 'mysterious' losses: Now, both ISU and Indiana pass the ball. ISU is also spread.
Can't explain the losses to Minny.
Can't explain the losses to Minny.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I'll be the first to say that I think the defenses have been the main reason why KF has had much success at all, at Iowa. That said, I have to say that I have NEVER liked the "bend, don't break" philosophy. True, it helps prevent big plays, and it makes your opponent execute the underneath stuff consistently to move down field on you. Problem is, that seems to give our opponents a LOT of plays, which wears down our defense, and that can show up late in games. See 2010.
Not that our offense usually does a lot with the ball when it's out there, but first of all, they can't score when they're cooling their heels on the sidelines.
Not to mention, when they do get back on the field after the other team has a 12 play, 6:30 minute drive (even if it only results in 3 points), they will be facing a rested defense. And from what little I really know about X's and O's, offense also seems to be a lot of about rhythm, and it's hard to find that standing around on the sidelines.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Yeah, can you say "James Hardy". That guy ate us alive.
KnightHawk9
Well-Known Member
We're both just trying to come up with reasons why Vegas has done a poor job in predicting Iowa's results. I guess I don't see why your argument is holy ground and mine is "pure folly".
Makavelihawk
Well-Known Member
Yours is folly because Vegas has been right at a mid 90's % clip and you're arguing about their skills at picking winners. That's why it's folly.
Good stuff. I don't suppose you want to take the time to show all the numbers for the last 5 years or so like you did for 1012
Makavelihawk
Well-Known Member
A 5%...hell even a 10% outlier could be argued. 20 freaking percent? How does anyone in their right mind even attempt to argue that Iowa is losing because of garbage coaching?
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Well, Vegas has done a pretty good job, apparently, of picking other Big Ten teams when they say they are favored by 10+ points, as those teams almost always win.
Do you think it's more likely that Vegas is just botching their picks ONLY when it comes to Iowa, or that it's Iowa who has a habit of crapping the bed when they're favored by 10+? I have a hard time believing it's a Vegas issue.
Those Vegas guys are pretty smart tho. They think of things like when a good pass offense goes up against a bad pass defense. If they didn't, betters would eat them alive.
There is no way I want KF gone. Most of the negative crap I read about him on this site makes no sense at all. But, the picture painted by the stats Rico reports has been a picture I have been disturbed about for a long time. I remember sipping a beer after many games and thinking, "...if KF would just win the games he is clearly supposed to win, or at least a high percentage of them, we would not be discussing his future as the Iowa head football coach." Also, I think I have seen some stats on how often Iowa wins when they are underdogs...my memory is that we don't look so good in that column either. anyone?
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Ask and you shall receive......
I took the last 7 years of data since those are the 7 years that KF's tenure has seemed to have taken a fall.
In the last 7 years, there have been a total of 2289 college football games where the favorite was favored by 10 or more points. 604 of them were road favorites by more than 10 points and the remaining 1685 were home favorites by more than 10 points.
Of those 2289 games, the favorite won straight up a total of 2030 times, or 89% of the time (the win% is virtually the same regardless if it's a road or home favorite).
ATS, the 10 point favorites covered 1173 of the 2290 games, or 52% of the time.
Here are some other stats related to that:
1. Over the last 7 years, Iowa is tied for 25th in terms of the number of times favored by 10 or more points. Iowa's actual straight up win % is actually 65.5% because I included 5 games against FCS teams that they would be favored by more than 10 points but there's actually no line. The next worst straight up win% is Florida State at 82.4%.
2. Of all 120 FBS teams, there are only 7 teams that have a worse straight up win % against teams they were favored by 10 or more points than Iowa: Army, UAB, Tulane, Western Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico State and Ball State. The total number of times those 7 teams combined were favored by more than 10 was 30 times. Iowa, by itself, was favored 29 times.
3. Here are some other B1G records over the last 7 years against teams they were favored by 10 or more points:
Wisconsin: 36-0
Penn State: 30-0
Indiana: 7-0
Michigan: 28-1
OSU: 50-2
Nebraska: 34-3
Northwestern: 11-1
MSU: 22-3
Illinois: 12-2
Purdue: 16-2
Minnesota: 2-2
Iowa: 19-10
Others:
Iowa State: 4-0
LSU: 45-1
Alabama: 46-3
Notre Dame: 27-3
Oregon: 43-5
Oklahoma: 49-6
Thanks man. Couple things I noticed. The part where you added in the 5 FCS schools, did that help Kirk's cause or hurt it? Also not doing it for all the other schools affects the numbers. You obviously can't do it for all the other schools so maybe it's best to leave those out for Iowa. The other thing was the fact that teams are so close to 50% ATS over that long of a period really shows how much Vegas knows what they're doing.
After thinking about it I assume we went 3-2 in those 5 games so it probably didn't change Iowa's percentage much. I assume if you used FCS schools in every other teams calculations it would raise their percentages quite a bit tho so that would hurt Kirk's numbers in comparison. Is that correct?
Galling and terrible stats. Great stuff spider. I luv the numbers also. If you set up several null hypotheses on various factors that might cause this or might predict the outcome I think you would definitely find out that Iowa's offensive scoring output is highly correlated to these outcomes. which makes sense because you have to score more points to cover a large spread.
So again, Iowa needs more offense, they need to get more agressive. And we play a lot of bad bad opponents.
If you look at this as a quality management point of view I bet our 71 % is way outside the 3 combined standard deviations of the norm as you mentioned.
Anyone doing this type of work in the real world would get fired. I and the people I work with have very high qualtity approachign 100% and then do extra for customers.
I know we are talking about a game, football games, but with high stakes you have to have a high level of gamesmanship. I dont think KF has the gamesmanship anymore because there is no surprise in his approach.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Actually, he won all those 5 games....UNI twice, Tenn Tech, Maine, Eastern illinois and one other thats slipping my memory (dont have data in front of me now). When i was looking at just iowa at the beginning of the thread, it was easy to include them separately. Cant do it for all teams because my data set doesnt include FCS lines or results. But because of the large data set of over 2000 games, those results wont really move the needle all that much....
Just know this....our record in games when favored by double digits is horrendous!
FreedComanche
Banned
Makavelihawk
Well-Known Member
Ok um...so.......wait......ummm.....
