Unbelievable statistic regarding our performance as double digit favorites

hawkfan2679 said:
This record has been brought up more than once on this message board in the past. The Gazette did a story on it prior to this year...regardless of what you think of the OP, don't you think this is something noteworthy?

I didn't go through as much trouble as Rico, but doing some analysis from the Gazette article prior to this year:

Iowa's losses as double digit favorites since 2006: 9
The entirety of the Big 10 losses as double digit favorites since 2006: 15
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So 1 team in the conference is carrying the flag for 60% of all egg-layings. Nice.

This is a stat I wish someone would ask KF about in a presser. "That's Football" I suspect would be the answer, though.
 
timberhawk said:
SpiderRico, you lead a pathetic life. Seriously, you spend this much time analyzing every single angle of KF to support your disdain for him. We get it, you want him gone. You think he is overpaid. You think the game has passed him by. He is the worst coach in the country. Blah, blah, blah.

Can you please go use your time to do something else for at least a few minutes today other than post on a message board?
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Apparently I've touched a nerve.

Stats are my thing....always have been. I'm intrigued by them and, over time, they can typically tell a pretty compelling story.

I'm sorry that you don't find 10 losses against teams that we were favored to beat by more than 2 scores. I'm sorry that you seem satisfied with the status quo while the program continues it's slide into irrelevance.

I like Kirk. I've met him a couple time and he's always been gracious and warm. I have always wished him nothing but the best.

But my love for the Hawkeyes is much deeper and stronger than my love for Kirk. And if it's a choice between Kirk and the Hawks, I'll pick the Hawks every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Thanks for taking the time, though, to point out my pathetic life. Then again, aren't we all pathetic for participating in message boards revolving around a sport played by college kids?
 
1977Hawkeye said:
So 1 team in the conference is carrying the flag for 60% of all egg-layings. Nice.

This is a stat I wish someone would ask KF about in a presser. "That's Football" I suspect would be the answer, though.
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It would be more like "I counter that question with, remember that 1942 movie starring Humphrey Bogart called Casablanca. What a great movie." Next question...
 
1977Hawkeye said:
So 1 team in the conference is carrying the flag for 60% of all egg-layings. Nice.

This is a stat I wish someone would ask KF about in a presser. "That's Football" I suspect would be the answer, though.
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I hope someone would have the balls to tell him that that is 8 times more then any other team in the B1G. And that over 90% of division 1 teams would disagree about that being football.
 
I'm as fed up with the Kool aid drinkers out there as I am with KF that jump in every post with a LOL. Seriously ,do you guys/gals have a brain in your head. You're perfectly happy with this coach's peformance? What the hell do you see in your blind faith in this man that things will get better? If we were talking about teacher performance and the astronomical amount they were being paid for underachieving results would you still blindly support the farce.

I am not asking for Big10 championships every year,but that we beat on our schedule who we are supposed to beat and upset the OSU's once in a while. For 4 mil a year,that should be the expectation.
 
SpiderRico said:
Apparently I've touched a nerve.

Stats are my thing....always have been. I'm intrigued by them and, over time, they can typically tell a pretty compelling story.

I'm sorry that you don't find 10 losses against teams that we were favored to beat by more than 2 scores. I'm sorry that you seem satisfied with the status quo while the program continues it's slide into irrelevance.

I like Kirk. I've met him a couple time and he's always been gracious and warm. I have always wished him nothing but the best.

But my love for the Hawkeyes is much deeper and stronger than my love for Kirk. And if it's a choice between Kirk and the Hawks, I'll pick the Hawks every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Thanks for taking the time, though, to point out my pathetic life. Then again, aren't we all pathetic for participating in message boards revolving around a sport played by college kids?
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Spreads aren't stats. And they don't tell you who is supposed to win. They tell you who people are betting on. Maybe gamblers over-value Iowa for some reason. What difference does that have to do with winning and losing?
 
pmchawk said:
Kirk became ultra conservative after the 1st 7 years
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So true, very conservative.

I point to several situations, in the bowl game we lost to Florida in maybe 2006 season the hawks tried a blocked kick that turned into roughing and a second bad personal foul penalty and a TD for FL right before halftime. We used to block alot of kicks and since then we hardly try it. Ultra conservative on special teams is part of it.

And the other situation was KF calling timeout late in the first half against NW in 05 or 06 when we were ahead and Brodell fumbled the punt, NW scored on the short field and we fumbled the opening kick of second half and NW scored quick again to barely beat us when we were ahead.

KF doesnt take any chances anymore, special teams are not exciting, KF also makes other game day decisions that lead to a couple of losses per year. This is why we dont cover the spread and lose a couple extra games a year. This is not even x's and o's but a conservative philosophy issue.
 
KnightHawk9 said:
Spreads aren't stats. And they don't tell you who is supposed to win. They tell you who people are betting on. Maybe gamblers over-value Iowa for some reason. What difference does that have to do with winning and losing?
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While spreads themselves aren't stats, a team's performance against the spread is a stat. But to think they are meaningless as it relates to who is supposed to win is naive. The lines aren't set by guys who are randomly picked off the street.
 
Makavelihawk said:
Your reading comprehension is as poor as your posts. He's 24-10 outright regardless of spread genius. What that means, so that you can understand it is that he's lost 10 games in the last 7 years against horrible teams in which we were favored by over 10 pts. I hope this helps, but I doubt it.
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I've got enough reading comprehension to know his record when a double digit favorite is 44-10, but keep raging brah.
 
KnightHawk9 said:
Spreads aren't stats. And they don't tell you who is supposed to win. They tell you who people are betting on. Maybe gamblers over-value Iowa for some reason. What difference does that have to do with winning and losing?
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I think it's safe to say that Iowa losing a game when they are a heavy favorite according to Vegas can be considered the same as Iowa losing a game that they were "supposed to win". Unless you're saying Iowa being favored by 10 or more doesn't mean they should win that game. Clearly, Iowa has done a very poor job of winning these kinds of games the past 6 or 7 years. To argue otherwise is pure folly.
 
DuffMan said:
I've got enough reading comprehension to know his record when a double digit favorite is 44-10, but keep raging brah.
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The point is that after the first 20 of those games, Iowa is 24-10 since then. Something definitely changed around 2005/06. What or why, is up for debate.
 
DuffMan said:
I've got enough reading comprehension to know his record when a double digit favorite is 44-10, but keep raging brah.
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That is, far and away, the worst mark in the B1G over that time period and it's not even close. And it's even worse when you start from the year he experienced his first loss as a double digit favorite, 2006, until now. 24-10 is a 71% winning %. Everyone else in the B1G is over 80% and most are at 100% or only 1 loss.

As I mentioned earlier, had he won those games at the same clip as the rest of his peers, our regular season records would like as follows:

2006: 8-4
2007: 9-3
2008: 9-4
2009: 11-1
2010: 10-2
2011: 8-4

All of a sudden, we're having a whole other discussion by simply winning the games that everyone else in the conference and pretty much everyone else in the country wins.

For example, in 2012 alone, there were 225 games where a team was favored by 10 points or more. The favorite straight up won 206 of them, or 92%. Yet, for the last 7 years, we've averaged 71%.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
The point is that after the first 20 of those games, Iowa is 24-10 since then. Something definitely changed around 2005/06. What or why, is up for debate.
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Higher (EDIT: maybe too high) expectations of the Hawks, maybe? Is that so bad?

2nd EDIT: offenses in the B1G, as of the mid-2000's, have become more complex. Heck, as a staple for their offense, even Penn State is throwing the ball.
 
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bcl20 said:
How is this unbelievable?
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It's unbelievable because it's so far off the bell curve that it's not even close.

Double digits favorites typically win around 92-94% of their games straight up and cover about 54% of the time. Over the last 7 years, Iowa has straight up won 71% of those games and covered in only 35% of them. Both of those numbers are about 20% away from the "norm". That's crazy.
 
HomerChampless said:
Higher (EDIT: maybe too high) expectations of the Hawks, maybe? Is that so bad?

2nd EDIT: offenses in the B1G, as of the mid-2000's, have become more complex. Heck, as a staple for their offense, even Penn State is throwing the ball.
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Expectations are good. Problem is, these losses are still against teams like Indiana, Minnesota, ISU, etc. Expectations or not, Iowa has lost to some downright BAD teams.

Regarding your 2nd edit, that's where Iowa needs to adapt to the changing game. Have our coaches done that?
 
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