To defer or not??

[dagdaj]

That is a nice summary of your analysis.

With the bolded part, this relates even more to Iowa. Our offense isn't really the type of offense to come out firing on all cylinders. It just seems to me when you have a very good defense, and a pretty slow starting offense, why not defer?

I admit, I was kind of shocked by that. Not shocked. More shocked that this isn't all common knowledge. And seeing that is what really put me over the top and wiped out any ambivalence I had. I'd really love to know the actual data for college. Especially knowing that offenses are highly scripted in the early going of games in college it seems it might have an even stronger impact.

I know there's coaches who have tried with limited success taking numbers games out to their max. Going for it on 4th anytime you're near midfield. Frequent onside kicks/etc. Or even in basketball doing the Grinnell thing.

But I don't think there's a whole lot of data that shows that kind of stuff works when you deploy it regularly and all the time.

I think the numbers that an amateur numbers guy like me can see (assuming it's all valid data)....it's clear as day. Regardless of the qualifiable things (wind/crowd). That data is in the quantifiable 5%. That's literally a +1 win a year figuring that you only win the toss 50% of the time. Probably MORE if you consider that a 5% bump doesn't help you in the same way against OSU as it does Minnesota.

Something else coming in to play that I just dug around on. Home field advantage is a 6-7% bump. And you figure you lose the coin toss 50% of the time. The deferral is worth almost half of home field advantage.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

That is a nice summary of your analysis.

With the bolded part, this relates even more to Iowa. Our offense isn't really the type of offense to come out firing on all cylinders. It just seems to me when you have a very good defense, and a pretty slow starting offense, why not defer?

It also kind of depends on your team makeup which can change in college. For example, when Tory Taylor was here or when Iowa has a very solid punt game, one can argue that they could take the chance at taking the ball when winning the coin toss. Not I admit, Iowa's offense and QB play was not the best in that era, but I am just making a point about how a team can afford to take the ball with great special teams.
I mean, take the ball and if the offense can get 30 yards and if have to punt, you could have a punter who could pin the other team inside the 5-10 yrd line. You will field position from the start and set the tone.

I also think there is a legit point about taking the ball in the 2nd half, but the point about giving a team consecutive possessions (end of first half & start of 2nd) is moot. That is not always guaranteed and prob happens 50% of the time.

The NFL for years has the team winning the toss taking the ball first. I presume there is a reason for that, but college and the college atmospheres is different than in the NFL so I get it.