Somewhat surprised, I thought that these magazines tried to look smart by putting a large emphasis on strength of schedule and using that to help predict regular season records.
If they looked at Iowa's schedule and thought they wouldn't have a terrific record, that says this is a bad team. I have a tough time imagining how any Iowa team of the past 25 years wouldn't have a very good record against this ridiculously easy schedule. No OSU, MI, MSU or PSU and WI and NE at home with a joke preseason schedule and known BIG cupcakes.
It should be a season with a great record (not necessarily a great team). Go Hawks!
The schedule is certainly favorable, but I wouldn't go so far as to say if Iowa doesn't have a terrific record, they are a bad team. What is a terrific record? 8 + wins? 9? 10 or more?
The way I look at the schedule is in different buckets:
Almost sure win
Heavy favorite
Favorite
Pick-em
Slight underdog
Heavy underdog
And here's how I see each opponent
Northern Iowa - favorite to heavy favorite. UNI has good QB and skill positions and first game for at least 5 new starters in the back 7 for Iowa. I could see UNI moving the ball.
Ball State - Favorite. Yes, this is a MAC team but Ball State was also 10-3 last year. They were at 70 last year in the Sagarin ratings (Iowa State was 72). So a game Iowa should win, but not automatic.
Iowa State - Favorite. Some will say Iowa should be a heavy favorite but I don't see it. Iowa led by 20 in the fourth quarter last year but won by 6.
@ Pitt - Pick-em. Pitt is not great, but they were 7-6 last year and finished 55 in the Sagarin ratings. Cosgrove is a good coach and he has some talent at Pitt. First road game, Iowa will be by far the highest profile non-con team Pitt plays. They will be ready. In 2008 a much more talented Iowa team went out there and got beat. Yes, there were mitigating circumstances with the Christensen/Stanzi situation not worked out, but crazy crap happens on the road. Pitt is a legitimate opponent who can physically fight back.
@ Purdue - Favorite. Yes, Iowa won last year at WL by a 38-14 score but it was 14-7 with Purdue's ball in the third quarter. Total crapshoot as to how good/bad Purdue will be in Year 2 under Hazell.
Indiana - Favorite. At home against a team with no defense, Iowa should win. But Indiana's offense is good, and of Iowa bumbles around on offense this could be a game.
@Maryland - Pickem to favorite (slights) . Maryland is a decent team (7-6 last year) and at their place.
Northwestern - Pickem to favorite. It took Northwestern gifting the ball to us at the end of regulation and a great stand by the D to win in OT last year. No Colter is good for Iowa, but Venric Mark is back and Fitz know how to play against Iowa.
@ Minnesota - Slight underdog or pickem, depending upon how both teams have done up to this game. Kill has Iowa marked on the schedule, and Gophers try to do what Iowa does, be physical. Will not be easy.
@ Illinois - Favorite i suppose. Who knows what Illinois will be by this time. Team could be phoning in the end of the Beck era or showing improvement.
Wisconsin - Pick em. Badgers lose a lot, but still have capable people and a good coach.
Nebraska - Pickem or slight favorite. All depends on what each team has and what's at stake. If Nebraska is playing a guy like Kellogg III again I like Iowa's chances.
No games on the schedule that are "highly unlikely" wins, like @OSU last year or against MSU at home. But I see 0 games where Iowa is a shoe-in for a win, even if Iowa shows up not ready to play the Hawks will still win. I put Western Michigan and Missouri State last year as those types of games. Iowa played perhaps its worst game of the year against Missouri State and still won by 14 points. No opponents this year at that level.
Really the season (to me) comes down to health on the offensive line and how rapidly the back 7 on defense can sort things out. Iowa's first 5 on the OL I believe will be really good. But if Scherff/Donnal/Blythe go down with an injury, we are in trouble against good teams. Iowa has quality (not elite) depth at RB, TE, WR and are capable at QB. The offense will be good (by Iowa's standards) if the OL stays healthy.
On defense, the DL is good (not great). I like the athletes at LB but they will not be at Morris/Kirksey/Hitchens level, especially out of the gate. They will need game experience. I like the athletes/possibilities in the secondary, but again Lomax at safety and whoever the other corner is need to play.
