If Iowa's goal is to win the Big Ten and qualify for the CFP, the Iowa State game makes no sense at all for the following reasons:
1. Iowa State is rarely, if ever, ranked when we play them, so a win is expected and therefore doesn't move the needle for Iowa. I'm guessing over the last 40 years Iowa has been FAVORED over Iowa State at least 95% of the time, including last fall, If I recall correctly.
2. We don't need to play Iowa State for strength of schedule. Playing in the Big Ten accomplishes that for us.
3. If you LOSE the game because Iowa State is punching above their weight (which can happen), it can COST you the CFP.
Bottom line, we have everything to lose and nothing to gain from the ISU game. Two obvious illustrations:
1. In 2002, ISU stages a miraculous comeback, beats Iowa 36-31, and therefore we finish 11-1. Ohio State (a team that may have been inferior to Iowa in 2002), squeaks out 12-0 and then wins the national championship. Would we have been in the national championship game that year at 12-0? Possibly. Could we have defeated an overrated Miami of Florida team that year in the national championship game? Possibly.
2. In 2015, Iowa beats ISU, goes 12-0, and comes within a few inches of beating MSU, which would have put Iowa in the CFP. If Iowa had lost to ISU in 2015, no way they would have qualified for the CFP, even with a win over MSU.
I know the ISU-Iowa series will continue, but the game makes zero sense in the current CFP playoff format. Zero. I love the bragging rights and it is thrilling to beat ISU, but there is all down side and no up side for Iowa.
If a team is serious about the CFP and you are in the Big Ten, you are better off to play 3 MAC teams. I know that is a boring thought for Iowa fans, but it is reality. Go 3-0 in your nonconference with no injuries, go 8-1 in the Big Ten, win the conference championship game, and you may qualify for the current 4 team CFP. The Big Ten is a brutal conference, so playing tough non-conference games makes no sense. It is the same reason why Penn State doesn't play Pitt every year.