The Race for the Roses

[NattyBumppo]

Trying to figure out how much help each of the conference's top four need to capture the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid (and probably a trip to the Rose Bowl)... is this correct?

Mich St: Win Out.

Wisconsin: Win out + 1 loss for Mich state + 1 loss for Ohio state (both at Iowa most likely) OR 2 losses for Mich State

Ohio State: Win out + 2 losses for Mich state + 1 loss for Wisconsin (but see ties)

Iowa: Win out + 1 loss for Wisconsin (at Michigan most likely)


Most likely ties without head-to-head tiebreakers:

Mich St and Ohio St both go 7-1 after OSU wins out and MSU and Wisconsin both drop 1 game (to Michigan and Iowa probably).

MSU, OSU, and UW all 7-1 after OSU and UW win out and MSU drops 1 game (at Iowa likely).

In both above cases the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the automatic bid. If I know my human voters this would probably be OSU.

If Iowa, MSU, and UW all finish 7-1 after Iowa and UW win out.
Iowa is eliminated because of their non-conference loss and MSU gets the nod due to head-to-head W against Wisky.

 

[ThunderHawk]

Trying to figure out how much help each of the conference's top four need to capture the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid (and probably a trip to the Rose Bowl)... is this correct?

Mich St: Win Out.

Wisconsin: Win out + 1 loss for Mich state + 1 loss for Ohio state (both at Iowa most likely) OR 2 losses for Mich State

Ohio State: Win out + 2 losses for Mich state + 1 loss for Wisconsin (but see ties)

Iowa: Win out + 1 loss for Wisconsin (at Michigan most likely)


Most likely ties without head-to-head tiebreakers:

Mich St and Ohio St both go 7-1 after OSU wins out and MSU and Wisconsin both drop 1 game (to Michigan and Iowa probably).

MSU, OSU, and UW all 7-1 after OSU and UW win out and MSU drops 1 game (at Iowa likely).

In both above cases the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the automatic bid. If I know my human voters this would probably be OSU.

If Iowa, MSU, and UW all finish 7-1 after Iowa and UW win out.
Iowa is eliminated because of their non-conference loss and MSU gets the nod due to head-to-head W against Wisky.

If Iowa wins out, we are likely going to a BCS game. That's the way I see it. I think Michigan State losing to us will kill their chances, and they aren't taking OSU above Iowa if Iowa has beaten them. Plus we'd be rolling, finishing strong.

I could be wrong (and God knows these BCS jerks don't care about what's fair or right) but that's the way I see it.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Trying to figure out how much help each of the conference's top four need to capture the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid (and probably a trip to the Rose Bowl)... is this correct?

Mich St: Win Out. Correct

Wisconsin: Win out + 1 loss for Mich state + 1 loss for Ohio state (both at Iowa most likely) OR 2 losses for Mich State Needs MSU to lose twice since they already beat OSU

Ohio State: Win out + 2 losses for Mich state + 1 loss for Wisconsin (but see ties) Needs Wisconsin to lose 1 more

Iowa: Win out + 1 loss for Wisconsin (at Michigan most likely) Correct


Most likely ties without head-to-head tiebreakers:

Mich St and Ohio St both go 7-1 after OSU wins out and MSU and Wisconsin both drop 1 game (to Michigan and Iowa probably).

MSU, OSU, and UW all 7-1 after OSU and UW win out and MSU drops 1 game (at Iowa likely).

In both above cases the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the automatic bid. If I know my human voters this would probably be OSU.

If Iowa, MSU, and UW all finish 7-1 after Iowa and UW win out.
Iowa is eliminated because of their non-conference loss and MSU gets the nod due to head-to-head W against Wisky.

 

[iowamike21]

The Rose Bowl is waiting. Iowa still has its fate mostly in its own hands. Win out and the odds are good that the Rose Bowl is the reward. It's not too difficult to imagine Michigan's spread scoring a ton of points on the Badgers, or NW either. And the Badgers aren't built for a shootout, so at least one Badger loss is at least possible.

I'm old, so I well remember 1981. Iowa was upset at home by Minnesota, then lost to Illinois, and it looked like the magical Rose Bowl run was over. All Michigan had to do was beat Ohio State and Michigan was Rose Bowl bound. But a "down" Ohio State team upset the Wolverines at the same time Iowa was manhandling MSU. I'll never forget the chants of "Rose Bowl! Rose Bowl! Rose Bowl!" as fans listening to the OSU-Michigan game on the radio heard that one go final. Could a similar scenario happen this year? It could...

 

[NattyBumppo]

Hawkeyescott: Thanks. I follow you on Wisconsin.. They just simply need MSU to lose twice. I must have been thinking they had the IA/MSU/WI tiebreaker, but that would go to MSU (as I stated at the end of my post).

I'm failing to see what was wrong with my OSU line however... they won't have a tiebreaker against MSU (who they don't play) or WI (who beat them) so they need both teams to have two losses to win the big ten outright don't they?

Iowamike21: I agree that Iowa isn't sitting that poorly at all. When all is said and done they will likely control their own destiny as you said... that's all you can really ask for at this point.

 

[TChawk]

Race for the Roses is over for Iowa....the minute Wisky made out defense look silly.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Hawkeyescott: Thanks. I follow you on Wisconsin.. They just simply need MSU to lose twice. I must have been thinking they had the IA/MSU/WI tiebreaker, but that would go to MSU (as I stated at the end of my post).

I'm failing to see what was wrong with my OSU line however... they won't have a tiebreaker against MSU (who they don't play) or WI (who beat them) so they need both teams to have two losses to win the big ten outright don't they?

Iowamike21: I agree that Iowa isn't sitting that poorly at all. When all is said and done they will likely control their own destiny as you said... that's all you can really ask for at this point.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Hawkeyescott: Thanks. I follow you on Wisconsin.. They just simply need MSU to lose twice. I must have been thinking they had the IA/MSU/WI tiebreaker, but that would go to MSU (as I stated at the end of my post).

I'm failing to see what was wrong with my OSU line however... they won't have a tiebreaker against MSU (who they don't play) or WI (who beat them) so they need both teams to have two losses to win the big ten outright don't they?

Iowamike21: I agree that Iowa isn't sitting that poorly at all. When all is said and done they will likely control their own destiny as you said... that's all you can really ask for at this point.

Other than needing Wisconsin to lose 1 more OSU needs MSU to probably only lose once because if MSU and OSU tie at 7-1 with no head to head meeting and the same overall record then the highest ranked in the final BCS standings goes to the Rose Bowl and if Iowa beats MSU this weekend OSU will probably jump them and MSU probably can't pass them if both would win out after this weekend.

 

[masoncityhawkeye]

If Iowa wins out, we are likely going to a BCS game. That's the way I see it. I think Michigan State losing to us will kill their chances, and they aren't taking OSU above Iowa if Iowa has beaten them. Plus we'd be rolling, finishing strong.

I could be wrong (and God knows these BCS jerks don't care about what's fair or right) but that's the way I see it.

Hate to burst your bubble but even if we beat OSU and they finish 10-2 they will go to the BCS over us. We need them to lose another game.

I think the Rose is the only likely BCS game chance for us unless OSU goes 9-3.

 

[hawkfarmer]

Trying to figure out how much help each of the conference's top four need to capture the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid (and probably a trip to the Rose Bowl)... is this correct?

Mich St: Win Out.

Wisconsin: Win out + 1 loss for Mich state + 1 loss for Ohio state (both at Iowa most likely) OR 2 losses for Mich State

Ohio State: Win out + 2 losses for Mich state + 1 loss for Wisconsin (but see ties)

Iowa: Win out + 1 loss for Wisconsin (at Michigan most likely)


Most likely ties without head-to-head tiebreakers:

Mich St and Ohio St both go 7-1 after OSU wins out and MSU and Wisconsin both drop 1 game (to Michigan and Iowa probably).

MSU, OSU, and UW all 7-1 after OSU and UW win out and MSU drops 1 game (at Iowa likely).

In both above cases the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the automatic bid. If I know my human voters this would probably be OSU.

If Iowa, MSU, and UW all finish 7-1 after Iowa and UW win out.
Iowa is eliminated because of their non-conference loss and MSU gets the nod due to head-to-head W against Wisky.

The only thing that is wrong, is that Wisconsin just needs to win out and 2 MSU losses. They don't need OSU to lose since they won the head to head, and if MSU only loses one they still have the head to head over Wisky, so they need to win out and MSU to lose 2.

Also, OSU also just needs MSU to lose one and Wisky to lose again, and obviously win out. If OSU and MSU have one loss a piece, OSU will have the advantage in the BCS due to the time of the loss. They will need Wisky to lose again.

 

[hawkfarmer]

Hate to burst your bubble but even if we beat OSU and they finish 10-2 they will go to the BCS over us. We need them to lose another game.

I think the Rose is the only likely BCS game chance for us unless OSU goes 9-3.

Not necessarily, that game is very close to selection time and that game will ring out. If Iowa wins out and OSU's only loss is to Iowa, both will be 10-2 and it's a toss up for the bowls so I'd say Iowa has a great shot. I still think the Rose is the best shot, if Iowa wins out, and Wisky loses it's theirs.

 

[DuffMan]

Just so I'm clear the Rose Bowl must still select the B10 champion UNLESS the B10 champion plays in the NC game correct?

That said I think the easiest way to disect our Rose Bowl hopes (remember even if we tie for the best record we are considered co-champs) is provided we win out we win the tiebreakers against MSU (by virtue of head to head). We lose the tiebreaker to Wisky (by virtue of head to head). We also loose a 3 way tie breaker by virtue of BCS rankings.