The path to 10 B1G Wins
- Thread starter NikeHawk21
- Start date
eledmonster
Well-Known Dog
That one is excellent. Perhaps this?
And therefore Phase 5 Silent Bob....and bicty, bucket, fing, bam and following this path Iowa is NIT bound.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46205122/MI1.0.0.gif)
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
That Wisconsin loss really stings. If you look at this schedule a different way, you can say we have 10 home games and 10 road games (9 of each remaining)
9 home games include Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Maryland and Indiana. I’d say 3 losses there at least, say 6-4 at Carver.
9 road games Iowa would need to find 4 wins on the road. Rutgers, NW, Penn State, and Minnesota are possible, but my guess is we will be underdogs in all but the Rutgers game.
9 home games include Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Maryland and Indiana. I’d say 3 losses there at least, say 6-4 at Carver.
9 road games Iowa would need to find 4 wins on the road. Rutgers, NW, Penn State, and Minnesota are possible, but my guess is we will be underdogs in all but the Rutgers game.
In a year like this, we would be better off if we had all of our tough games on the road and just chalk them up as losses, then have a bunch of easy teams at home.
We really need to get to 7-3 at home somehow.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I didn’t like this schedule from the beginning.
If we could instead play @ Mich and @ Maryland and have Minny and Penn State at home, that would increase our expected wins by close to 2 games.
If this team gets to the tournament, they will have earned in the toughest league in the country.
koralakers
Well-Known Member
Yep, feels like this. We “shot” our way past a good ISU team. We are not that good of a shooting team. Don’t see that happening again much. BIG is pretty loaded. With a minimum of 21 games vs BIG, don’t have much confidence we can get more than a handful of wins
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I think Iowa is a good shooting team. They aren’t going to shoot like they did against Iowa State every night but I think they’ve actually shot worse than expected this year, primary due to Bohannon being over 100 points below his normal 3pt %.
Ree4
Well-Known Member
I think we've undershot, especially against Wisconsin and MSU (not like that would have mattered), and believe that we're a good shooting team. We missed a lot of open shots in the two games that we lost.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
I agree with this. 4 of the 5 starters are legit threats from deep. Baer also appears to be back to his normal self after poor shooting last season.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Exactly.
JBo has two full season over 40% while shooting a ton of threes. He’s an elite shooter.
Moss and Dailey were both over 38% last year. Baer was 39% as a sophomore. Garza is at 35% on his career.
Then you add a guy like Weiskamp who can also stroke it. We have plenty of shooting.
Again the problem I’ve seen is we just haven’t been able to get enough open looks in our offense. That’s likely because we don’t have many drivers who can collapse the defense.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Agreed. One solution to the lack of slashing/penetrating ability is to feed the post and work inside out. Which is a position of strength for Iowa. There have been several times this year where the team has gone away from it and failed to get the ball inside with good positioning. Why they go away from trying to feed the post at times is beyond me. Maybe it's due to a team fronting or Iowa's lack of being versatile in it's set plays designed to get the post feed open....
I've said this before but I'll say it again, I really wish Fran would implement the use of some/more post isolation plays for Cook/Garza when opposing teams are playing man. There are way too many times where the team actually gets them the ball but the opposing team swarms to them before they can make a move. Spacing the floor better to get the passer and post player as the only 2 on the same side of the court could allow the needed separation. Make this a go to when in a drought and the shooters are not getting open.
Its not a reach to W & L the Hawks the rest of the way & project 11-2 before restart of Big10 conference schedule(don't stumble & lose to Panthers Saturday.) Then, go 10-8 in remaining Big10 games. That's 21-10 going into Big10 tourney. A win & loss there puts them at 21-11 on Selection Sunday. In past years, that record wasn't probably good enough, but this year it would be. Factor in their SoS from rugged Big 10 and good wins vs Oregon & UConn. Also, very good win vs ISU & some good to great wins in Big10, hopefully. See them as a #6-#7seed(admittedly somewhat optimistically) and beating a #10 or #11 seed in 1st round & then beating a #14 or #15seed(hey, upsets happen!) to get to Sweet 16.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
The problem is our team struggles mightily feeding the post, and that’s where the lions share of our turnovers seem to come from. That’s both on the passer and the post man.
The issue is a few teams have pressured the heck out of our guards and tried to front and side front Cook and Garza, and it has been extremely effective. If you don’t fear a guard going by you this is an effective strategy (That’s how UMKC gave us a game and Pitt).
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
True and that's where screening the post player open in a post isolation set can create the passing lane (cross screen and clear out). It doesn't need to necessarily be the PG that feeds the post. Find the mismatch whether it's Connor at PG or Wieskamp/Baer with a smaller guard on him and reverse/get them the ball to that wing for him to dump inside once Cook/Garza come off the cross screen and have either their man or the guy that switched to them on the screen one on one. If teams try to double off the cross screen, the wing player can reverse the ball to an open shooter as the perimeter should be spread out enough for somebody to be open for a 3.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Sure, but again the ball pressure can disrupt the timing of a play like that. Also if the defense is trying to deny the ball from getting into the post chances are they might just switch the cross screen and continue to front. From the wing it’s a pretty hard spot to throw it over the fronter, ideally you would reverse to the top and throw it over, again if they are denying that reversal and pressuring this gets difficult.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Now we're getting deep into situations.
If they are hell bent on fronting and switching, don't cross screen or do to get the best matchup. Get the post player to position himself at the elbow vs the low post. As long as the backside is cleared out, the over the top pass should be there from the wing. This is less of a timing play so the guard pressure at the top of the key shouldn't effect this too much.
If they are denying the reversal, that's when you need to cut to the hoop. The post player can clear out to the corner to allow an open gap for a cutter.
I
Ian Pike Hammer
Guest
JBo has already forced a bunch of bad passes into the interior, which resulted in turnovers. What is his assist to T.O. ratio?
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
1.47 Assist / Turnover ratio
Last year he was at 2.57
Freshman year he was at 2.31
Part of it is he has been off the ball a lot more this year, and part of it has been he’s just not playing that well.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
While I agree the loss hurts, please enlighten us on how Wisconsin is mediocre.
