On a side note, once again Connor took over late in the game. It wasnt going to end in a loss anyway, but he made some good plays down the stretch. Most importantly, he went hard after two rebounds that probably weren't supposed to be his. To me that shows that he is a gamer and when its crunch time, his head is in the game and he's gunna do whatever he can to make a play. He's going to win us a lot of close games over the next few years .
The Official Western Carolina...Who?....Game Thread
- Thread starter HaydenHawk56
- Start date
From what little bit they showed of the crowd last night it looked like you could hear a pin drop in there.. I didn't like seeing that. I'm sure that'll change after the holidays and we get into league play again. We'll need all the home court advantage we can get once that gets goingOhio State was losing at home to Youngstown St (#289 in RPI) last night at halftime. It happens. I am not saying Iowa is a great team, but this is the hard part of the season to try and grind through with lesser opponents, low crowd energy (and actual people) and the holidays. Get the wins, get some work in, and get to conference play.
The kid is a gamer. Has a bit of an edge to him. He's not going to jump over anyone or outrun anyone out there but he isn't backing down either. If anything I'd like to see him look for his jumper a little more often. He is quick to pass and keep the ball moving but I want him to show he's a threat at hitting those too more often.
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
I actually am Alright with the team right now.....
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NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
We looked painfully bad against Pitt, especially in the 1H. If we played like that against any team in the B1G we lose. I do not think we played well against Wisconsin.
Right now we have the resume’ of an NCAA team, and I certainly think we have that potential.
The problem is our schedule. I said the week of the Wisconsin game that game was close to a must win game, and I think that might end up being the truth.
Here’s an idea at just how tough our B1G schedule is. Massey ratings rates us as the 29th best team in the country. They are projecting Iowa to begin B1G play at 1-11.
https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3540&s=305972
Now we certainly aren’t going to begin 1-11, but the next portion of our B1G schedule is brutal. Our next four home games are Neb, OSU, MSU, and Michigan. We might be slim favorites against Neb and OSU and will be dogs against the Michigan’s. Barring something major, we will be underdogs in nearly every road game besides Rutgers.
The issues with starting with a poor record is two fold. It can hurt team morale, and other teams will also be smelling blood in the water when they play Iowa.
Just judging off the schedule in front of them I wouldn’t bet on this team getting enough conference wins to dance.
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1-11! Have you seen our last 5 games? There is a good chance we will go 1-4.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I didn’t make the computer model, it was just a reference point to show how difficult our schedule is to start the year.
A 4-8 or 3-9 start is not out of the question. Where does a team’s psyche go from there? As I said other teams will be smelling blood in the water when they play Iowa looking for a conference win. Iowa’s last four conference games include road games at OSU, Neb, and UW so ideally we’d have 9 wins by the time we got to that stretch. This schedule is brutal.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_187_Men.html
Here’s another computer model that has Iowa starting 1-11. Again, Iowa won’t start 1-11 in B1G play, but the schedule is not forgiving.
First of all, it doesn't matter where they go from there because their season will be over. Second of all, I would argue that it's easier to beat a team when you have a bad record because the opponent doesn't take you seriously. You say they smell blood in the water. I say they smell a game they can coast and win.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
The good news is if Iowa can somehow navigate the start of this schedule at 5-7 or 6-6, 5 of their final 8 games are very winnable contests.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
If they go 5-5 their next 10 in B1G play that puts them at 5-7. Should be favored to win NW, at Rut, Maryland, and Indiana, then beat Rutgers at home to get to 10 wins. Maryland and Indiana aren’t exactly gimmies though.
The problem is we will likely be underdogs in at least 7 of our next 10 B1G games, so we will have to pull a few “upsets” to get to 5-5.
I look at the next 7 and think it's not bad at all. Other than Purdue, most are really close to 50/50.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Agree. Michigan State being the other really tough one, but we gave them a game at Carver last year.
Should make for some exciting games to watch. Hopefully we can pull a few out at the end.
Didn't mean to count them. I thought they were later. That one is more 60/40 at best.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
It's all going to come down to those close games. We've averaged about nine a year in the Fran era. And won about 2.5 of them. Eek out two more wins in conference play in close games than we've averaged and it would make a huge difference.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
It’s very easy to form bad habits against these crappy teams. Many of us noticed that against Alabama St and it carried over into the 1H if the Pitt game. Hopefully playing these crappy teams doesn’t lead to bad habits that carry over into Purdue or further.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Well that puts us at 4-8 in the league with games at OSU, at Nebraska, and at Wisconsin remaining on the schedule. Not ideal if our goal is to make the dance.It depends how you look at the Massey projections. I read it as they are projected to win 41% of their next 10 conference games or go 4-6.
(25%+49%+39%+47%+37%+80%+33%+44%+26%+32%)/10 = 41.20% * 10 = 4.12 wins.
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