The next big move in realignment?
- Thread starter spliff45
- Start date
eyekwah
Well-Known Member
I am suspicious of any more realignment because it will seemingly never end. Long story short what the sports media is yearning for is a conference of 25 to 30 teams. Here is a possible list based on two sports; mens bball and football:
PAC - USC, UCLA (BBall), Arizona (BBall), Oregon
Big 12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas (BBall)
SEC - Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Auburn
B1G - tOSU, Michigan, MSU (BBall), Penn State, Nebraska
ACC - FSU, UNC (BBall), Miami, Duke (BBall), Clemson
Independent - Notre Dame, BYU
If you listen at all to national sports networks it it usually about the above culprits. Right now the pundits are all salivating over Jim Harbaugh going to Michigan and what it means. They are already dicing the division setups in some conferences because one division appears weaker than another. They want to talk about Penn State playing Alabama not PSU playing Indiana. The College Super Division is the sports media's big wet dream.
PAC - USC, UCLA (BBall), Arizona (BBall), Oregon
Big 12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas (BBall)
SEC - Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Auburn
B1G - tOSU, Michigan, MSU (BBall), Penn State, Nebraska
ACC - FSU, UNC (BBall), Miami, Duke (BBall), Clemson
Independent - Notre Dame, BYU
If you listen at all to national sports networks it it usually about the above culprits. Right now the pundits are all salivating over Jim Harbaugh going to Michigan and what it means. They are already dicing the division setups in some conferences because one division appears weaker than another. They want to talk about Penn State playing Alabama not PSU playing Indiana. The College Super Division is the sports media's big wet dream.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
I don't think it will happen because the property that the ACC is peddling is worth far less than what the SEC is peddling and the commishes know it. The B1G needs to strike its deal soon because the air is going to let out of the sports content bubble soon - but right now there is still time because FS1 and NBCSN are desperate for content. There was an article in today's WSJ about ESPN cutting costs. They have lost over 3 million subscribers bince May 2014. Given that they contribute 1/4th of Disney's profit, this is a huge deal for them. http://www.wsj.com/articles/espn-tightens-its-belt-as-pressure-on-it-mounts-1436485852
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Well folks, my suspicions of a content bubble bursting came too early, but with Bally Sports (a huge regional sports network that carries almost a third of the games broadcast by MLB, NBA and NHL) likely filing for bankruptcy in the coming weeks, I think the bursting of the sports content bubble may be imminent. Warner Brothers Discovery (the company formed when AT&T spun off Warner/HBO/CNN to Discovery) has also announced they are getting out of the regional sports game.
There are huge payments owed to MLB at stake here. As in teams are getting shorted now or will get shorted before the end of March. This also has repercussions for the ACC as Bally owns some lower tier rights for ACC events.
I think really high end content, like Michigan-Ohio State, the Super Bowl, the NCAA tournament, etc. will still warrant big dollars, but the bottom is gonna fall out of the market for second and third tier content. The ACC is in the midst of an insurrection where Florida State is demanding something be done. This morning Clemson joined this. I don't know where this ends up, but the whole ACC is tied together by a grant of rights agreement that runs through 2036 and now that the writing is on the wall that these past few deals the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 got are so much ahead of the ACC's deal they're starting to have major seller's remorse and are desperate to try to catch the knife before it falls.
Everyone jumped into the sports content game not too long ago. They all saw the money Disney was making off ESPN and wanted a piece of that pie. NBCSN is already toast. The Warner thing is toast. Bally's will soon be toast in all likelihood. The number of bidders for content has fallen. Interest rates are way up. Someone is going to wind up holding a massive bag of crap when this thing unwinds.
Fryowa
Administrator
Anything that expedites the end of TV blackouts is cool with me...which this is going to do.
I pay for MLBtv every year and I'm happy to do it...no complaints because I'm a 3rd generation Braves fan and it's the only way to watch their games now that TBS baseball ain't a thing anymore. But I also like the Twins and I can't watch them play because antiquated blackout rules say I should go to the game instead.
I live 3 and a half hours away.
Blackouts maybe made a little sense when it was broadcasted about 25 miles via antenna and games cost 5 bucks to get into and a couple bucks for a hot dog and a beer. But if you go to an MLB game today, between tickets, parking, gas to get there, and concessions, you better set aside three hundos minimum for two people.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
I think I have heard back some time that the areas of Iowa and Las Vegas are the two worst for getting screwed by the blackout games. As you point out, all major cities are at least 3.5 hrs away. F'ing ridiculous. It's isn't like you could be at work on a Thursday or Friday and say F'it, I'm going to take the afternoon off and hit a game. Ain't like your gunna hit up a handful of co-workers to take in an afternoon game.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
The MLB is gonna get raked so hard on this it ain't funny. They're gonna have to do a new media rights deal because WBD and Bally's are almost half the freaking content. It's insanity. It will probably inure to their benefit in the long run if enough people are willing to pay for the content and they can cut out the middle man. Excuse me, middle person. Sorry for the microggressive language in there.
I'm honestly surprised that the MLB teams haven't looked at the Chicago Blackhawks as an example of the folly of blackouts. When you have dozens of home games per year and then black a bunch of them out, you aren't selling more tickets. All you're doing is slowly eroding the brand equity of your product. The notion of protecting the gate is very antiquated. At the end of this I would be shocked if the MLB retains blackouts or if they do I would be surprised if they extend much beyond Kane County in the case of the Cubs or the equivalent for the Twins.
The reason I had a feeling Bally was doomed is that my neighbor is a die hard Braves fan. Die hard. Flag goes up everyday. Game on every night. He was so pissed off at Bally that he started listening to them on the radio and this was the year they won the World Series. If you have guys 150 miles outside of Atlanta abandoning watching the Braves home games you got problems because that is a majorly loyal and huge fanbase.
Fryowa
Administrator
I think MLB are the ones who'll actually come out smelling like roses. Baseball is hyper regional when it comes to fanbases, and those home markets are the ones getting hosed. If they open it up the advertising revenue is going to be probably double per franchise/network what it is now. Even though Bally's is big, there's no vacuum in the world of advertising. That and all the overhead (broadcasting equipment, announcers, etc) is already there, it'll just have a different logo on it for a slightly lower revenue point. That revenue point will be more than made up for if they shit can blackouts.
Baseball's problem has been that it's needed a face-saving excuse to finally push itself over the edge on blackouts and get rid of 'em. This will be it.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
They will eventually, but in the short run this is gonna get ugly because a bunch of teams are gonna get stiffed on what they thought was guaranteed money. And when they go to bid those rights back out it's gonna yield a fraction of what they got on the last deal. It will be a boon to MLB TV but they're gonna have to rework that deal and will wind up with a big fight because the Yankees, Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc. aren't gonna forego any of that pie to true up the Pirates, Rockies, Rangers, etc. But I agree, that distribution model is gonna require getting rid of the blackouts. You're gonna make out like a bandit!
Amen to every damn word of this... Blackouts have hurt the spread of the game as much as anything. I grew up listening to radio way more then watching anything on TV. John Gordan and Herb Carniel for my Twins. Back then they played more day games it seemed like I remember listening to games in the tractor on the weekends in the 90s during the day too. They don't play many of those anymore. Everything is about squeezing more $ out of fans and sponsors.
Only the really well off with both time and $ to kill can afford to go to games often. That sure as hell wasn't me.
