The 'Iowa Can't Stop the Spread Offense' Myth

[olivecourt]

I agree with this poster's sentiments regarding taking the quality of teams into account. Iowa could probably shut out City High, too, even if they ran the spread.

A better method would be to compare the number of points allowed to spread teams of a given quality to the number of points allowed to non-spread teams of a comparable quality. Perhaps categorizing opponents by W-L record would give a reasonable approximation of quality.

You're complicating the simple. Iowa's defense hasn't allowed more than 31 points to anyone since September 2007. Any scheme, any quarterback. It is exceptionally rare for the Iowa D to give up more than 24 points. Again, any team, any scheme-- the vast majority of them are getting a couple of TDs and a couple of FGs per game if they are lucky.. This is in an era where spread offenses are supposedly revolutionizing the college game. I don't know what else you can ask for.

 

[cibula11]

Last year I looked at ave. Point difference in wins vs. Losses and found that in wins Iowa won by a margin of almost 24 and in losses the avg. Was around 6. These were compiled from the last four years. Big won or close loss. I pick big win this weekend.

 

[lightning1]

Iowa doesnt struggle against the spread offense.
Iowa gives up more yards, against spread offenses, with mobile QBs that can be patient enough to take the 5yrd pass plays we leave open.
That doesnt mean we give up more points, or lose to those teams.

Fitz has a hard on for Iowa, so NW always comes out like their hair is on fire.
Its the Danny Mac syndrome all over again.
They lost 3 straight, after last season's win over Iowa. I guess they couldnt keep up that kind of intensity, to close the season out strong.

 

[JugadorHawk]

Iowa doesnt struggle against the spread offense.Iowa gives up more yards, against spread offenses, with mobile QBs that can be patient enough to take the 5yrd pass plays we leave open.That doesnt mean we give up more points, or lose to those teams.Fitz has a hard on for Iowa, so NW always comes out like their hair is on fire.Its the Danny Mac syndrome all over again. They lost 3 straight, after last season's win over Iowa. I guess they couldnt keep up that kind of intensity, to close the season out strong.

Or Persa tore his Achilles tendon on the game winning touchdown to beat us?

 

[lightning1]

Or Persa tore his Achilles tendon on the game winning touchdown to beat us?

True enough but that only backs up my theory of the QB position being more important than the scheme.
NW struggled without Persa's ability to judge when to pass and when to run.
In fact, probably more so, in the spread offense.

 

[notafan]

If the offense held up their end and moves the chains at least 40% of the time, the defense isn't on the field as much. The final third of last year was on the offense, or lack there of. Iowa went from a 52% 3rd down converting offense through eight games and getting off the field on defense more than 68% of time on third to an offense that converted just 32% of thirds and defense allowing over 50%. The d was gassed because they were out there too quickly, too often. It's pretty academic.

As for yards between the 20's...the game is won or lost by points scored and allowed. The Iowa defense has more than done it's part

This tends to happen when the schedule get harder. Take the 3 cupcakes off those first 8 games and compare them again. I'm guessing the results would be alot closer together in numbers.

 

[FML]

Iowa does a good job of limiting the scoring of all teams, spread and non-spread teams. However, good spread teams move the ball very well against Iowa. They may not always be scoring, but they are controlling the clock and by doing that, they are not only wearing out the D, but also putting more pressue on our O.

 

[JugadorHawk]

Or Persa tore his Achilles tendon on the game winning touchdown to beat us?

True enough but that only backs up my theory of the QB position being more important than the scheme.NW struggled without Persa's ability to judge when to pass and when to run.In fact, probably more so, in the spread offense.

I agree with you. Fitzgerald has had some smart, tough and über-patient QB's in Evanston to go along with a very opportunistic defense.

 

[DexterMorgan]

Meh, this is kind of dishonest Jon, you are comparing how our defense did against spread teams, sure, but mostly against bad teams as well.

My thoughts exactly. Stats are skewed by non conference cupcakes.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

What about the amount of yards being gained between the 20's having a correlation to the amount of time the defense spent on the field?

That's the one thing I also would throw out there if I had a criticism of the defense.

I'd have to see some stats on this, but it seems like we give up an awful lot of 3rd and long conversions. Maybe not more than anyone else, I don't know, but that's my impression.

We're always stout against the run, but once it goes to 3rd and 7, 3rd and 9, that's when I get nervous because it seems like once the ball goes in the air, that's when we get gouged. Either that, or we sell out to stop the pass on on 3rd and long and we totally forget to contain the QB, who tucks it away and picks up 13 yards and a first down.

I realize it's all about scoring more points than your opponent, but bend-don't-break keeps our defense on the field quite a bit longer than if we could force a 3 and out. That wears out the D, and means fewer chances for our offense.

But I DO agree with the overall sentiment of Jon's post.. I've been saying for yours that even with our defense as-is, we're just a good offense away from having 2002 type seasons most every year. The offense is our real weakness.

 

[LG210]

You're complicating the simple. Iowa's defense hasn't allowed more than 31 points to anyone since September 2007. Any scheme, any quarterback. It is exceptionally rare for the Iowa D to give up more than 24 points. Again, any team, any scheme-- the vast majority of them are getting a couple of TDs and a couple of FGs per game if they are lucky.. This is in an era where spread offenses are supposedly revolutionizing the college game. I don't know what else you can ask for.

I understand that Iowa's defense is generally and as a whole a good defense, and has been for most of the KF era. However, if you don't categorize the teams by quality, you cannot have a true comparison of how Iowa fares against the spread-type offense relative to a pro-style offense.

Taking it to the extreme for purposes of example: If Iowa played Eastern Illinois all 12 games of the season, we'd say that Iowa's defense dominates the spread offense. However, the fact of the matter is, Iowa would dominate Eastern Illinois' offense regardless of scheme because Iowa has vastly superior football players. If Iowa played Rodriguez-era Michigan for 12 games a year (or God forbid, Northwestern), we'd say that Iowa stinks up the stadium against the spread offense.

My guess is this. If you categorized by quality of opponent, you'd see that Iowa fares equally well against the spread and pro-style offenses for all inferior-quality opponents and struggles against the spread relative to the pro-style offense against higher quality opponents.

That is just a guess based off of anecdotal evidence, but I'd be interested to find out if it is true.

 

[JonDMiller]

This tends to happen when the schedule get harder. Take the 3 cupcakes off those first 8 games and compare them again. I'm guessing the results would be alot closer together in numbers.

Generally speaking, yes.

The third down stats I posted were through 8 games...half the big ten season as well...and three of the worst defenses in the league were among Iowa's final four opponents.

Last year, the offense let the team down. Also didn't help that the MVP to that point, Adam Robinson, was never the same and barely played again, and the 1st and 2nd string RG were done...and Nielsen was done for the year, Iowa's best cover LB, going into the portion of the schedule where his cover skills would have certainly had some third down impact.

Most Ferentz teams have been who they are going to be by the November 1st mark, which is where Iowa was through eight games last year...the attrition in all the wrong places finally caught up to them

 

[racerhawk]

I understand that Iowa's defense is generally and as a whole a good defense, and has been for most of the KF era. However, if you don't categorize the teams by quality, you cannot have a true comparison of how Iowa fares against the spread-type offense relative to a pro-style offense.

Taking it to the extreme for purposes of example: If Iowa played Eastern Illinois all 12 games of the season, we'd say that Iowa's defense dominates the spread offense. However, the fact of the matter is, Iowa would dominate Eastern Illinois' offense regardless of scheme because Iowa has vastly superior football players. If Iowa played Rodriguez-era Michigan for 12 games a year (or God forbid, Northwestern), we'd say that Iowa stinks up the stadium against the spread offense.

My guess is this. If you categorized by quality of opponent, you'd see that Iowa fares equally well against the spread and pro-style offenses for all inferior-quality opponents and struggles against the spread relative to the pro-style offense against higher quality opponents.

That is just a guess based off of anecdotal evidence, but I'd be interested to find out if it is true.

\


I hear what you're saying, and my personal opinion, based upon seeing all of the losses in person last year, is that our offense beat us. Certainly, the defense had a few let downs, but let's not kid ourselves. To beat the spread, your offense has to score more than 21 points per game (in general).

I am going to make the assumption (some may disagree) that Northwestern is a good, or at least decent, spread offense. On the road, Iowa had them beat, and we were into the fourth quarter allowing only 7 points! Stanzi threw a bad pick, and then when we did get the ball back again, we couldn't convert. NW was able to run about 50 plays in the second half. Certianly our tired defense had something to do with the fact that they ran 50 plays, but our defense wouldn't have been so tired if the offense could manage to convert! It's a chicken and egg argument, I suppose, but Iowa wins by being a complete team. The D tries to keep everything in front of it, and the offense needs to convert and control TOP. Our offense really failed at that last year, IMHO.

Most teams could score more than 17 or 21 points on NW. Why couldn't Iowa? Same with Indiana or Minny last year. The defense had its issues, for sure, but the offense should've been able to score over 30 on all three of those opponents.

 

[imported_ankle23]

\


I hear what you're saying, and my personal opinion, based upon seeing all of the losses in person last year, is that our offense beat us. Certainly, the defense had a few let downs, but let's not kid ourselves. To beat the spread, your offense has to score more than 21 points per game (in general).

I am going to make the assumption (some may disagree) that Northwestern is a good, or at least decent, spread offense. On the road, Iowa had them beat, and we were into the fourth quarter allowing only 7 points! Stanzi threw a bad pick, and then when we did get the ball back again, we couldn't convert. NW was able to run about 50 plays in the second half. Certianly our tired defense had something to do with the fact that they ran 50 plays, but our defense wouldn't have been so tired if the offense could manage to convert! It's a chicken and egg argument, I suppose, but Iowa wins by being a complete team. The D tries to keep everything in front of it, and the offense needs to convert and control TOP. Our offense really failed at that last year, IMHO.

Most teams could score more than 17 or 21 points on NW. Why couldn't Iowa? Same with Indiana or Minny last year. The defense had its issues, for sure, but the offense should've been able to score over 30 on all three of those opponents.

Why? There head coach is a defensive guy who hates iowa. there's a start. he gets them amped up ala McCarney and that starts on D.

like i've said earlier - the recent NW series has little to do about their offense.

 

[racerhawk]

Why? There head coach is a defensive guy who hates iowa. there's a start. he gets them amped up ala McCarney and that starts on D.

like i've said earlier - the recent NW series has little to do about their offense.

It has everything to do with our offense...and maybe their defense.

I don't think we disagree...?

My point is that our defense actually does okay against spread teams. Our offense shouldn't struggle mightily against NW, Ind, Minn, should it? As I noted earlier, this was the case against teams like INDY and MINNY too.

Edit: Hating a team should only get you so far. Beyond that, you have to execute. I agree that NW has played lights out against Iowa, and that Fitzgerald's hate of Iowa has motivated them. Having said that, Iowa was up 17-7 in the fourth and our offense did nothing. That's on Iowa's offense.

 

[notafan]

Generally speaking, yes.

The third down stats I posted were through 8 games...half the big ten season as well...and three of the worst defenses in the league were among Iowa's final four opponents.

Last year, the offense let the team down. Also didn't help that the MVP to that point, Adam Robinson, was never the same and barely played again, and the 1st and 2nd string RG were done...and Nielsen was done for the year, Iowa's best cover LB, going into the portion of the schedule where his cover skills would have certainly had some third down impact.

Most Ferentz teams have been who they are going to be by the November 1st mark, which is where Iowa was through eight games last year...the attrition in all the wrong places finally caught up to them

Good point, injuries certainly are a factor later in the season as well. My only point was that I'm sure E.Illinois, ISU, and Ball St. "padded" the stats there. But to counter that, one could also say Arizona, Penn St., and Michigan St. were all much stiffer tests that Iowa still had relative success with. Exeption being the Arizona game there, but those were all ranked teams when the Hawks played them.

 

[ICHawk24]

For all of you ripping on the stats that Jon has presented...

Please post your own stats showing Iowa struggling against the spread. If you want to claim Iowa struggles against the spread, the burden of proof is on you.

 

[olivecourt]

It has everything to do with our offense...and maybe their defense.

I don't think we disagree...?

My point is that our defense actually does okay against spread teams. Our offense shouldn't struggle mightily against NW, Ind, Minn, should it? As I noted earlier, this was the case against teams like INDY and MINNY too.

Edit: Hating a team should only get you so far. Beyond that, you have to execute. I agree that NW has played lights out against Iowa, and that Fitzgerald's hate of Iowa has motivated them. Having said that, Iowa was up 17-7 in the fourth and our offense did nothing. That's on Iowa's offense.

We were up 17-7 and driving for what seemed like a certain score. Stanzi throws the pick, and then our D stepped up and stopped Northwestern again to give the offense the ball back, still up by 10. I believe they went 3-and-out at that point.

 

[imported_ankle23]

It has everything to do with our offense...and maybe their defense.

I don't think we disagree...?

My point is that our defense actually does okay against spread teams. Our offense shouldn't struggle mightily against NW, Ind, Minn, should it? As I noted earlier, this was the case against teams like INDY and MINNY too.

Edit: Hating a team should only get you so far. Beyond that, you have to execute. I agree that NW has played lights out against Iowa, and that Fitzgerald's hate of Iowa has motivated them. Having said that, Iowa was up 17-7 in the fourth and our offense did nothing. That's on Iowa's offense.

no, we agree.

but you can get a long way with emotion on D - that being my point. their D has been us (along with our mistakes on O and special teams - see onside kick and fumbled punt). Fitz is an emotional guy, a D guy, and you can bet he gets their team up ala McCarney for the Iowa game.

 

[olivecourt]

Good point, injuries certainly are a factor later in the season as well. My only point was that I'm sure E.Illinois, ISU, and Ball St. "padded" the stats there. But to counter that, one could also say Arizona, Penn St., and Michigan St. were all much stiffer tests that Iowa still had relative success with. Exeption being the Arizona game there, but those were all ranked teams when the Hawks played them.

We had a ton of success defensively against Arizona. They scored 34 points, 14 of which were scored by their defense and special teams, and another 7 of which were scored on a whopping 8-yard drive after a blocked punt. Beyond that, their offense had exactly one touchdown drive. It was a killer because it was at the end of the game, yes, but if your defense only allows one touchdown drive on the road, you should be fine.