The Hawkeyes Will be Dogs: Six 2013 point spreads involving Iowa

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Phil Steele shared some early season betting lines on his blog late in the week and it would seem as though Vegas is not high on the Hawkeyes this year.

Yeah, yeah, I know that the betting lines are there to try to get equal action on both teams so the house can win on the juice. Still, the expectations for Iowa will be low. Here were some of the early lines I saw on Steele’s blog and there are more lines for other ‘marquee’ games this year:

Iowa at Iowa State (-4): I don’t believe Iowa has been the underdog in this game since 2000 or something like that. This game could wind up being one of the marquee Pillow Fights of the year as I don’t expect either team to finish over .500 this year. If I were forced to make a wager at this juncture, I’d take Iowa State and give the four. There are too many questions surrounding Iowa’s defensive line and whomever wins the quarterback battle for Iowa will be making their first ever road start in a stadium that doesn’t get as much credit for being hostile as it deserves. The 5pm start will make it all the more raucous. The one thing I like for Iowa at this point is they will have had two games under their belt to just one for Iowa State.

Michigan State (-9) at Iowa: Holy cow bells, how far has Iowa’s star fallen? Up until the start of the 2011 season, Iowa had gone over 40 games without having lost by double-digits. That ‘streak’ is long gone now but this line seems way too generous. I’d take the points and put my pretend dollars on Iowa to cover.

Iowa at Ohio State (-23): This might be the lock of the year that I have seen so far, and I will admit that I haven’t spent too much time on betting lines just yet. But if I were forced to wager, I’d lay the 23, take Ohio State, go outside and mow my yard, the neighbors yard, come it at halftime to see the Buckeyes had this number covered already. I think this game is going to be horrifically ugly, as in Ohio State could score 60 or more.

Northwestern (-12) at Iowa: Wow. The Cats as a 12-point favorite in Iowa City? While I am not high on this year’s Iowa team I’d certainly wager a 12 pack of Mt Dew on that one, taking the Hawkeyes. I’d hope Iowa could cover that number at home. If it doesn’t, I’ll link back to this item and wave the white flag.

Michigan (-10-5) at Iowa: So the Golden Nugget Casino likes Northwestern better than Michigan this year and lumps MSU, NW and Michigan in a similar area as they all visit Iowa City and you can throw a blanket over the point spreads in those three games.

Iowa at Nebraska (-14): I am surprised to see this line so low…perhaps they are taking into account the moribund angles to the last two meetings between these teams and how a below average Iowa defense was able to gum up the Husker works last year in Iowa City. I would have expected a higher number than this, however, given the three totals we see for Iowa’s home games listed above.
 
Depressing.

Historically, this team seems to perform better under KF when they are under the radar though (can't get much further under the radar than this).
 
The only ways I see them avoiding another sub .500 season is if the defensive line is a year ahead of what I expect (I think they can be pretty good next year) and if the QB isn't a turnover machine. That, and Kirk staying out of the way and let Greg Davis run what he wants to run. That is no guarantee that it will work with the personnel Iowa has, but I am convinced last year's offensive nightmare was because Kirk wanted certain things included and Davis had to mesh it with what he likes...the result was the worst offense of the Ferentz era and one of the Top three worst offense since Hayden Fry arrived.
 
I think the Hawks will cover most of those since it looks like Iowa's conservative nature may be a blessing in disguise this season, relying heavily on the running game and ball control...how well that will work when no one's going to respect the passing game, I can only imagine, but I'm a Kool-Aid drinker and still hold out hope that this is just the type of season to start Iowa's climb back up the ladder as we've seen in the past under Kirk.
 
Basketball season can't get here fast enough. Imo, it looks like another 4-8 season at best, and we all know Ferentz will not let Davis run his offense. So it will be another disaster on offense, especially with no experienced QB on the squad.
 
The only ways I see them avoiding another sub .500 season is if the defensive line is a year ahead of what I expect (I think they can be pretty good next year) and if the QB isn't a turnover machine. That, and Kirk staying out of the way and let Greg Davis run what he wants to run. That is no guarantee that it will work with the personnel Iowa has, but I am convinced last year's offensive nightmare was because Kirk wanted certain things included and Davis had to mesh it with what he likes...the result was the worst offense of the Ferentz era and one of the Top three worst offense since Hayden Fry arrived.

+1000 and makes me wonder if Davis knew he would be shackled coming in.
 
The only ways I see them avoiding another sub .500 season is if the defensive line is a year ahead of what I expect (I think they can be pretty good next year) and if the QB isn't a turnover machine. That, and Kirk staying out of the way and let Greg Davis run what he wants to run. That is no guarantee that it will work with the personnel Iowa has, but I am convinced last year's offensive nightmare was because Kirk wanted certain things included and Davis had to mesh it with what he likes...the result was the worst offense of the Ferentz era and one of the Top three worst offense since Hayden Fry arrived.

I dont think any of these QBs will be a turnover machine but I would prefer to go in that direction compared what we saw last year (from a risk/reward perspective). Here's INT's by Iowa QB since 2007. JC and JVB were the best at not thowing INT's. Incidentally Colt McCoy threw 18 int's in 2007 but he also averaged 254 ypg and 7.8 ypa. Vince Young threw 11 and 10 in 2004 and 2005.

2007 JC - 6 int's
2008 JC - 1 int
2008 RS - 9 int's
2009 RS - 15 ints
2010 RS - 6 int's
2011 JV - 7 int's
2012 JV - 8 int's

BTW, Chuck Long had 10,12,13 and 15 int's in '82, '83, '84 and '85, respectively. I think HF understood risk/reward properly as it relates to the QB position.
 
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The only ways I see them avoiding another sub .500 season is if the defensive line is a year ahead of what I expect (I think they can be pretty good next year) and if the QB isn't a turnover machine. That, and Kirk staying out of the way and let Greg Davis run what he wants to run. That is no guarantee that it will work with the personnel Iowa has, but I am convinced last year's offensive nightmare was because Kirk wanted certain things included and Davis had to mesh it with what he likes...the result was the worst offense of the Ferentz era and one of the Top three worst offense since Hayden Fry arrived.

Thank you, Jon.

Now will you ferentz defenders please stop being offended when the rest of us give you reasons as to why want him the heck out of the way?

FreedComanche
 
Freed you exaggerate about everything. Not a single "Ferentz defender" has suggested he is innocent in all of this. In fact, most have been pretty critical of him. There's no doubt he needs to make changes. The coaches have acknowledged that much. The only time people feel the need to defend Ferentz is when ridiculous accusations are made like he isn't trying to win games.
 
Hmmm...last year we had a ton of inexperience in the DL and were expected to be terrible defensively. Essentially, we were out of 3 games last year. Now, with essentially a very good nucleus of OL and DL back, we are expected to be double digit underdogs in three home games (one to MSU who we actually beat last year in East Lansing). I get MSU has a ton of returning players...but so do we. How that's a 10 point line. The way both offensives play...both teams may not score 10 points total.

I know we have a QB with no Division one snaps...but it isn't like they are Freshmen/RS Freshmen or whatever. The best position on the team is going to be the OL. If they play well, and we can run the ball, the QB's job gets easier.

Nebraska wasn't exactly scarey last year either...and ISU, well, we will have an advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches...I just don't think we lose that game.
 
Freed you exaggerate about everything. Not a single "Ferentz defender" has suggested he is innocent in all of this. In fact, most have been pretty critical of him. There's no doubt he needs to make changes. The coaches have acknowledged that much. The only time people feel the need to defend Ferentz is when ridiculous accusations are made like he isn't trying to win games.

Or that he doesn't care...or show emotion...
 
These are very early lines that will probably come down to earth. I think way too much is being made of them, but then again, what the hell else is there to talk about right now. While there are certainly question marks, I also think there are a lot of positives to focus on going into the season that are largely being ignored.

BTW, Miller, maybe you and Deace should just make it a communal "mow the yard Saturday" over here when we play OSU and not even bother to come in and check the score at halftime. Don't do anyone any favors. I'm sick and tired of your negativity. It's almost like you are pulling for it to be ugly in some weird way.
 
He's just giving his opinion, however harsh it may be. OSU is going to be very good, and Braxton Miller has the ability to toy with Iowa's defense much like Devin Gardner did last year. Plus people learn from past mistakes. Jon picked Iowa to be undefeated a couple years ago and still hears about it. If anything, that has probably made him be much more conservative in his predictions. At least that way when you are wrong no one really remembers it.
 
As much as I have been supportive of KF since his hire I have to say that anything less than five wins is grounds for termination this up coming season. I honestly hope we get much better this season then many are expecting. To see less than five wins will begin to seriously deminish from KF's image as Iowa's head coach. Flying this low under the radar is where KF had always been the most dangerous. That's what I am hoping for. I have not lost total faith yet in KF like I did Steve Alford after Steve's fourth season. The writing was on wall for Alford clear back then. After this upcoming season some writing should begin to appear on the wall for the legacy of KF......... I hope it is positive and not negative. I hope five years from now we are talking about what an amazing turn around KF made in the program once again and how we are in the national spot light. Then again I'd like to win the lottery some day but will be lucky to just get three out of the six numbers right.
 
BTW, Miller, maybe you and Deace should just make it a communal "mow the yard Saturday" over here when we play OSU and not even bother to come in and check the score at halftime. Don't do anyone any favors. I'm sick and tired of your negativity. It's almost like you are pulling for it to be ugly in some weird way.

My bad. The Hawks are going to win in the shoe this year. I just have a feeling.

How's that?
 
Jon picked Iowa to be undefeated a couple years ago and still hears about it. If anything, that has probably made him be much more conservative in his predictions. At least that way when you are wrong no one really remembers it.

Nah...that would be disingenuous to start making picks differently...I do things the same way in that regard. I look at Iowa's schedule and think of how many games will they be favored in and that is my baseline for my prediction.

In the summer of 2010 looking ahead to the schedule, I felt they'd be favored in every single game on the schedule, so of any year to pick them to win it all, that was it. So I did it. Lo and behold, Iowa was the betting favorite in every game that year save the Ohio State game where they were a field goal dog..but that was late November and they had already lost a few games.
 

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