The game Iowa fans SHOULD be talking about ...

[homerHAWKeye777]

... the Michigan State game.

Think about it ... just think about it. What sort of O has the best chance to move the ball on Iowa's vaunted D? Which Big 10 QB is arguably one of the most underrated? Which Big 10 team is arguably the most stacked across the board at the skill positions?

Cousins makes me exceptionally nervous.

Furthermore, initially I wasn't as concerned about the Spartan D. However, the more I inspect their roster and depth chart, the more I realize how smart Dantonio was to move more to a 3-4 in 2010.

Michigan State is freakin' loaded at the LB position ... they have more than enough fire-power on the DL to be dangerous (just look at the year Worthy had last year) ... and they return plenty of proven talent in the secondary.

While the Michigan State D will not necessarily be elite in the same category as '09 PSU, Iowa, and tOSU Ds ... they're loaded with talent, they have more than enough experience, AND they're well coached.

I know that folks like to point to the historical trends that MSU has seemed to follow ... however, I would argue that last year was probably a bit more of an anomaly for a Dantonio-coached team. There were several off-field distractions that impacted the Spartans in a negative way, the Spartans got injured at a number of important spots, and they also contended with a QB competition. Do you recall the sort of season Iowa put up after they overcame similar issues in '07?

The top games I'm now worried about (in order of least to most) are ....

- Arizona/Wisconsin
- Michigan State
- Ohio State

 

[hoopthemottle]

Please do NOT worry about Arizona. The rest are worthy. AZ is NOT.

 

[HAWKEYESTATE4ever]

I personally think we could lose any game on the schedule with the exception of E. Illinois, Iowa State and Ball State (Minnesota is right there too). The other nine are all very winnable, but we could slip up any given Saturday. I still think we go 9-3/10-2 at worse though. GO HAWKS!

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Please do NOT worry about Arizona. The rest are worthy. AZ is NOT.

The concern about UA has more to do with Iowa's typical play early in the season AND the fact that it's our first away game of the season. Also, their O is pretty darn good AND Stoops is a good defensive-minded head-coach.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

I personally think we could lose any game on the schedule with the exception of E. Illinois, Iowa State and Ball State (Minnesota is right there too). The other nine are all very winnable, but we could slip up any given Saturday. I still think we go 9-3/10-2 at worse though. GO HAWKS!

We certainly could slip up any given Saturday. Given the increased parity in the college game, that is now the nature of the beast (at least for the majority of teams).

However, that said, I truly believe that Iowa fans have been grossly overlooking the Michigan State game.

Instead, many Iowa fans have been worried more about Arizona or Wisky. However, Wisky features a more run-oriented attack that we're better geared to slow/stop. In contrast, Cousins is a passing QB who is far more dangerous that Tolzien ... and he has even more weapons in his passing arsenal than Tolzien ... and Wisky is pretty loaded on the O too.

 

[hoopthemottle]

The concern about UA has more to do with Iowa's typical play early in the season AND the fact that it's our first away game of the season. Also, their O is pretty darn good AND Stoops is a good defensive-minded head-coach.

Arizona has two new coordinators, plus their losses on their O-line make them very vulnerable. We will roll them.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Arizona has two new coordinators, plus their losses on their O-line make them very vulnerable. We will roll them.

Explain. They return Grant and Baxter on the OL ... both of whom are excellent. They also started a kid last year named Dotsy who should great potential. Lastly, they have a few other guys who own career starts. On top of that, they have a number of decent former JUCO guys who are now SRs who help to bolster their depth.

All in all, the Arizona OL isn't nearly as vulnerable as you suggest. Furthermore, Stoops is on record being very positive about the status and depth of their OL.

As for dealing with 2 new coordinators ... that certainly COULD have an impact. However, usually the biggest problem with having new coordinators is that they usually bring new schemes with them. However, that will not be the case for Arizona. Stoops is a defensive-minded coach and their D already followed his philosophy there anyhow. As for on O, they hired another guy who was from the Leach/***** coaching tree ... so there won't be any change of scheme there either.

The BIGGEST things that impact UA are the following:

- A lot of youth and first-year starters on the D
- Their #2 or 3 WR (Dean) seemed to have gotten kicked off the team earlier in the summer

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Arizona has two new coordinators, plus their losses on their O-line make them very vulnerable. We will roll them.

FYI, I used to be of that opinion too ... that is, until I did my homework on our adversary.

Don't get me wrong, I fully anticipate an Iowa victory. However, I also anticipate that Arizona is VERY capable of giving the Hawks one heck of a tussel.

 

[jfish06]

We certainly could slip up any given Saturday. Given the increased parity in the college game, that is now the nature of the beast (at least for the majority of teams).

However, that said, I truly believe that Iowa fans have been grossly overlooking the Michigan State game.

Instead, many Iowa fans have been worried more about Arizona or Wisky. However, Wisky features a more run-oriented attack that we're better geared to slow/stop. In contrast, Cousins is a passing QB who is far more dangerous that Tolzien ... and he has even more weapons in his passing arsenal than Tolzien ... and Wisky is pretty loaded on the O too.

HH777...I usually agree with you like 99% of the time...your replies are very well thought out and analytical...no such thing as an irrational response from you.

However, I really think MSU falls to about 5 or 6 on the "games to worry about" radar behind AZ, PSU, @ UM, OSU, and Wisky...not to mention jNWU.

I understand that their defense may be slightly better but it's not like they've ever shut us down or been able to run up a scoreboard on us. We played about as conservatively as we could have last year and I see us improving while they stay at the same level or drop off a level. I don't see their defense holding us to less than the 15 points we scored last year and I certainly don't see them scoring a lot of points on our defense.

Is it a concern?? Well, he|| yeah, every game is for a team like Iowa and MSU always plays us tough. But MSU is far down the list of the games that worry me the most. I respect and like Dantonio but I think KF can outcoach him every day of the week, especially with the talent that we have in KINNICK this fall.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I do find it comical on all those who feel we roll Arizona. That is foolish talk. Never and I mean never disrespect a roadie, especially one at this level. This is going to be a difficult game and it's going to test Iowa Big Time.

I will be shocked if Iowa goes on the road and rolls Arizona, just shocked!

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

HH, I think I'm with you. Michigan State has some talent. One of my co-workers is a fan, and he made the argument that MSU always has the talent to win a game or two they shouldn't, but always has enough holes to drop a couple they should win.

Beyond the talent, what worries me is that at some point, Iowa will be emotionally and physically worn down and be flat for a game. I think it makes sense that it will happen at Kinnick. The previous three games to MSU are Penn State in Kinnick, at Michigan, and hosting Wisconsin.

I think we'll be up for Penn State (still early), and I don't see us losing at Michigan. It's the one big conference road game for our veterans. They'll relish winning in front of 100,000+...our physical defense playing off the big crowd and Stanzi and DJK performing best on the big stage (like always).

Wisconsin should be our most intense game of the year before the Buckeyes. Physically, mentally, emotionally...I think we take Wisconsin's best shot, but I'm worried how much it takes us out of us. The next game is MSU...just seems like a possibility we'll be flat, while they'll come out ready for payback.

We'll see.

 

[tm3308]

HH, I think I'm with you. Michigan State has some talent. One of my co-workers is a fan, and he made the argument that MSU always has the talent to win a game or two they shouldn't, but always has enough holes to drop a couple they should win.

Beyond the talent, what worries me is that at some point, Iowa will be emotionally and physically worn down and be flat for a game. I think it makes sense that it will happen at Kinnick. The previous three games to MSU are Penn State in Kinnick, at Michigan, and hosting Wisconsin.

I think we'll be up for Penn State (still early), and I don't see us losing at Michigan. It's the one big conference road game for our veterans. They'll relish winning in front of 100,000+...our physical defense playing off the big crowd and Stanzi and DJK performing best on the big stage (like always).

Wisconsin should be our most intense game of the year before the Buckeyes. Physically, mentally, emotionally...I think we take Wisconsin's best shot, but I'm worried how much it takes us out of us. The next game is MSU...just seems like a possibility we'll be flat, while they'll come out ready for payback.

We'll see.

I think that the Michigan State game is going to be the key game (after Arizona). If they can come through that 4-week stretch unscathed, they can kind of recharge against Indiana for the stretch run.

I think the key in that game is going to be getting out to a quick lead. Just jump on them, then lock down defensively and just try to progressively add some points. Take some early shots downfield.

 

[DFaceHawkeye]

HH, I think I'm with you. Michigan State has some talent. One of my co-workers is a fan, and he made the argument that MSU always has the talent to win a game or two they shouldn't, but always has enough holes to drop a couple they should win.

Beyond the talent, what worries me is that at some point, Iowa will be emotionally and physically worn down and be flat for a game. I think it makes sense that it will happen at Kinnick. The previous three games to MSU are Penn State in Kinnick, at Michigan, and hosting Wisconsin.

I think we'll be up for Penn State (still early), and I don't see us losing at Michigan. It's the one big conference road game for our veterans. They'll relish winning in front of 100,000+...our physical defense playing off the big crowd and Stanzi and DJK performing best on the big stage (like always).

Wisconsin should be our most intense game of the year before the Buckeyes. Physically, mentally, emotionally...I think we take Wisconsin's best shot, but I'm worried how much it takes us out of us. The next game is MSU...just seems like a possibility we'll be flat, while they'll come out ready for payback.

We'll see.

This is exactly what I was thinking last year... I'm thinking we have enough leadership, to not come out flat in any game this next year. I really think our D will set the tone, and they bring it every game ('cept UNI).

Homer- Do you think we'll see a big drop off in our ability to defend the pass? I believe we were better (national rankings) defending the pass than the run last year. I'm of the impression, that by the MSU game, the the db's will be pretty solid with Hyde stepping in for Amari.

 

[JHHawk]

I agree that MSU is very dangerous. Obviously,last year was a tossup. Now, we do seem to have their number a bit(cept for 09 when we should have won),and they tend to not be as good on the road, but I respect Cousins,and their rbs are going to be good. They lost White but always have WRs.

Now, they did have to resort to the hook and ladder to score late last year,so our defense basically did shut them down well....so I think we still win in Kinnick. If Jake could lead us back to an improbable OT win vs a more talented team at kinnick in 07, I think Ricky can find a way. Throw it on the pile of many tough games this year.

 

[OlePeep]

I understand that their defense may be slightly better but it's not like they've ever shut us down or been able to run up a scoreboard on us. We played about as conservatively as we could have last year and I see us improving while they stay at the same level or drop off a level. I don't see their defense holding us to less than the 15 points we scored last year and I certainly don't see them scoring a lot of points on our defense.

Re-read that paragraph. There is some serious internal consistency there. MSU did pretty much shut us down last yr. When Stanzi went under center to start the last drive in that game, he had 78 yds passing w/ 1:30 left in the game. We had 9 pts.

To the point of the thread, I think given that the game is in Kinnick makes it slightly further down the list, but only slightly. I think they'll be a tougher out than PSU. I don't understand why PSU is always so highly regarded. When was the last time they beat anybody? They don't even have a starting QB yet. This is not good in high-major CFB.

 

[TecmoSuperHawk]

Homer please explain why Michigan State has the type of O that has the best chance to move the ball on Iowa's D? They scored 13 points at home last year on us and lose their best WR. I too like Kirk Cousins, but I think they have exactly the kind of offense that our defense shuts down. Much like Wisconsin. Couple that with the fact that Iowa does not lose to Michigan State in Kinnick Stadium, period, and I think this is one of the games to least worry about.

 

[CAARHawk]

Not only do they lose their best wide receiver, this guy was a huge part of their offense. Really pretty much like Decker at Minny.

 

[burky247]

I do find it comical on all those who feel we roll Arizona. That is foolish talk. Never and I mean never disrespect a roadie, especially one at this level. This is going to be a difficult game and it's going to test Iowa Big Time.

I will be shocked if Iowa goes on the road and rolls Arizona, just shocked!

I agree. If you're not worried about the Arizona game, you haven't done your homework. I will be happy just to get out of there with a win. The only chance we have of "rolling" AZ is if our defense and special teams score multiple touchdowns.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Homer please explain why Michigan State has the type of O that has the best chance to move the ball on Iowa's D? They scored 13 points at home last year on us and lose their best WR. I too like Kirk Cousins, but I think they have exactly the kind of offense that our defense shuts down. Much like Wisconsin. Couple that with the fact that Iowa does not lose to Michigan State in Kinnick Stadium, period, and I think this is one of the games to least worry about.

I can explain ... no problem. First off, to shut down the parallel that some are drawing between MSU's White and Minny's Decker ... there was a huge differential in production between Decker and the #2 WR in terms of production. In contrast, there were only 300 yards between White and Decker. Furthermore, last year alone, with first-year starters at QB ... MSU still managed to have FOUR GUYS with 400+ yards. Furthermore, they had FIVE GUYS with 20 or more receptions. That implies that MSU is capable of distributing the ball. They are FAR from being a 1-trick poney on O.

Over the past 2 seasons, Dell and Cunningham have consistently been among MSU's top 3 WRs. Furthermore, Dell and Cunningham had off-field "distractions" that probably impacted their performance last year. If they actually can keep their nose clean and remain focussed, they could potentially pull off MONSTER seasons.

And it should also be noted that Keshawn Martin is perhaps the most dynamic playmaker on the MSU squad. The guy has great "wiggle" and he has very nice speed ... he's basically a big play waiting to happen. Once he becomes more consistent, he could very easily become their top WR. As it is, he still accounted for 411 yards on 18 receptions. He obviously won't keep up that YPR, however, what sort of productivity could he put up on 50 receptions?

On top of the HIGH quality guys that MSU has at WR ... it pains me to admit that they have the absolute BEST DEPTH at TE in the Big 10. Gantt and Linthicum are both EXTREMELY good and very experienced ... and Celek and Sims also have high ceilings and have seen quality game action. As the Iowa coaches can attest ... having quality TEs puts added pressure on the opposing D. It simplifies what opposing Ds can do.

Most importantly, having all those quality receiving targets means little if the QB isn't any good. However, Cousins has definitely proven himself to be an EXCELLENT passing QB. Cousins is capable of winning games with his arm. I know that many folks like to claim that Tolzien is an underrated QB ... however, Tolzien was far more of a game-manager. When the going got tough, Tolzien always had the benefit of having a strong running game to help him out. Cousins enjoyed no such luxury ... and that is a big reason why Cousins developed into a far more dangerous QB (than Tolzien). In fact, unless Pryor really surprises me with his progress throwing the ball, Cousins actually concerns me more than Pryor does.

As for what all this means in the context of our beloved Hawkeyes .... it means that Iowa's back 7 will have to work awfully hard in coverage. Mind you, I think that Iowa will be VERY good against the pass in 2010 .... however, MSU just so happens to have a passing attack that should be able to move the ball pretty well on the Hawks. I know that fans love to bring up how MSU performed against our D last year ... however, what relevance does that have on the 2010 season? The last time I checked, the MSU running game will be more dangerous in 2010 now that they're more experienced. The last time I checked, Cousins is a year more veteran and now is the undisputed starting QB. The last time I checked, Cunningham and Dell are no longer surrounded by off-field controversy. Furthermore, MSU will be able to play the "underdog" card and be able to use that for extra motivation. MSU will also play with great confidence against our Hawks. After how close they played us last year, they very well may end up having "revenge" on their minds.

Overlook MSU if you will .... but it will be a mistake.

 

[burky247]

I can explain ... no problem. First off, to shut down the parallel that some are drawing between MSU's White and Minny's Decker ... there was a huge differential in production between Decker and the #2 WR in terms of production. In contrast, there were only 300 yards between White and Decker. Furthermore, last year alone, with first-year starters at QB ... MSU still managed to have FOUR GUYS with 400+ yards. Furthermore, they had FIVE GUYS with 20 or more receptions. That implies that MSU is capable of distributing the ball. They are FAR from being a 1-trick poney on O.

Over the past 2 seasons, Dell and Cunningham have consistently been among MSU's top 3 WRs. Furthermore, Dell and Cunningham had off-field "distractions" that probably impacted their performance last year. If they actually can keep their nose clean and remain focussed, they could potentially pull off MONSTER seasons.

And it should also be noted that Keshawn Martin is perhaps the most dynamic playmaker on the MSU squad. The guy has great "wiggle" and he has very nice speed ... he's basically a big play waiting to happen. Once he becomes more consistent, he could very easily become their top WR. As it is, he still accounted for 411 yards on 18 receptions. He obviously won't keep up that YPR, however, what sort of productivity could he put up on 50 receptions?

On top of the HIGH quality guys that MSU has at WR ... it pains me to admit that they have the absolute BEST DEPTH at TE in the Big 10. Gantt and Linthicum are both EXTREMELY good and very experienced ... and Celek and Sims also have high ceilings and have seen quality game action. As the Iowa coaches can attest ... having quality TEs puts added pressure on the opposing D. It simplifies what opposing Ds can do.

Most importantly, having all those quality receiving targets means little if the QB isn't any good. However, Cousins has definitely proven himself to be an EXCELLENT passing QB. Cousins is capable of winning games with his arm. I know that many folks like to claim that Tolzien is an underrated QB ... however, Tolzien was far more of a game-manager. When the going got tough, Tolzien always had the benefit of having a strong running game to help him out. Cousins enjoyed no such luxury ... and that is a big reason why Cousins developed into a far more dangerous QB (than Tolzien). In fact, unless Pryor really surprises me with his progress throwing the ball, Cousins actually concerns me more than Pryor does.

As for what all this means in the context of our beloved Hawkeyes .... it means that Iowa's back 7 will have to work awfully hard in coverage. Mind you, I think that Iowa will be VERY good against the pass in 2010 .... however, MSU just so happens to have a passing attack that should be able to move the ball pretty well on the Hawks. I know that fans love to bring up how MSU performed against our D last year ... however, what relevance does that have on the 2010 season? The last time I checked, the MSU running game will be more dangerous in 2010 now that they're more experienced. The last time I checked, Cousins is a year more veteran and now is the undisputed starting QB. The last time I checked, Cunningham and Dell are no longer surrounded by off-field controversy. Furthermore, MSU will be able to play the "underdog" card and be able to use that for extra motivation. MSU will also play with great confidence against our Hawks. After how close they played us last year, they very well may end up having "revenge" on their minds.

Overlook MSU if you will .... but it will be a mistake.

Are ya happy now Tecmo?? This is why we never ask Homer to explain anything.