The game Iowa fans SHOULD be talking about ...

meh...good post and all...

my prediction...72-10 hawkeye victory. MSU scores on a 37 yard pass...iowa rolls after that.

how does that grab ya? lol
 
if we haven't learned by now the only game we should really worry about and the one I worry about every year is Northwestern.....
 
I think Nebraska fans might be more delusional than Iowa fans.

They are in an extremely weak division, meaning they play the Big 12's easiest teams every season, and they think that now they are going to come in and dominate a conference where you don't get to dodge the toughest teams AND your record gets measured up against every team in the conference's record.

Even after the split. Nebraska in a division with Iowa and Wisconsin is much much more difficult than the joke that was the Big 12 North. They will have real competition now. They only won the B-12 North twice in the last decade.
 
I can explain ... no problem. First off, to shut down the parallel that some are drawing between MSU's White and Minny's Decker ... there was a huge differential in production between Decker and the #2 WR in terms of production. In contrast, there were only 300 yards between White and Decker. Furthermore, last year alone, with first-year starters at QB ... MSU still managed to have FOUR GUYS with 400+ yards. Furthermore, they had FIVE GUYS with 20 or more receptions. That implies that MSU is capable of distributing the ball. They are FAR from being a 1-trick poney on O.

Over the past 2 seasons, Dell and Cunningham have consistently been among MSU's top 3 WRs. Furthermore, Dell and Cunningham had off-field "distractions" that probably impacted their performance last year. If they actually can keep their nose clean and remain focussed, they could potentially pull off MONSTER seasons.

And it should also be noted that Keshawn Martin is perhaps the most dynamic playmaker on the MSU squad. The guy has great "wiggle" and he has very nice speed ... he's basically a big play waiting to happen. Once he becomes more consistent, he could very easily become their top WR. As it is, he still accounted for 411 yards on 18 receptions. He obviously won't keep up that YPR, however, what sort of productivity could he put up on 50 receptions?

On top of the HIGH quality guys that MSU has at WR ... it pains me to admit that they have the absolute BEST DEPTH at TE in the Big 10. Gantt and Linthicum are both EXTREMELY good and very experienced ... and Celek and Sims also have high ceilings and have seen quality game action. As the Iowa coaches can attest ... having quality TEs puts added pressure on the opposing D. It simplifies what opposing Ds can do.

Most importantly, having all those quality receiving targets means little if the QB isn't any good. However, Cousins has definitely proven himself to be an EXCELLENT passing QB. Cousins is capable of winning games with his arm. I know that many folks like to claim that Tolzien is an underrated QB ... however, Tolzien was far more of a game-manager. When the going got tough, Tolzien always had the benefit of having a strong running game to help him out. Cousins enjoyed no such luxury ... and that is a big reason why Cousins developed into a far more dangerous QB (than Tolzien). In fact, unless Pryor really surprises me with his progress throwing the ball, Cousins actually concerns me more than Pryor does.

As for what all this means in the context of our beloved Hawkeyes .... it means that Iowa's back 7 will have to work awfully hard in coverage. Mind you, I think that Iowa will be VERY good against the pass in 2010 .... however, MSU just so happens to have a passing attack that should be able to move the ball pretty well on the Hawks. I know that fans love to bring up how MSU performed against our D last year ... however, what relevance does that have on the 2010 season? The last time I checked, the MSU running game will be more dangerous in 2010 now that they're more experienced. The last time I checked, Cousins is a year more veteran and now is the undisputed starting QB. The last time I checked, Cunningham and Dell are no longer surrounded by off-field controversy. Furthermore, MSU will be able to play the "underdog" card and be able to use that for extra motivation. MSU will also play with great confidence against our Hawks. After how close they played us last year, they very well may end up having "revenge" on their minds.

Overlook MSU if you will .... but it will be a mistake.

You do a nice job of breaking down the personnel and providing stats, but you fail to mention what I think is the most important aspect of breaking this game down and that is scheme. Michigan State under Dantonio runs a more traditional, power style offensive scheme. They can spread it out when they need to, but that is not their preference. Iowa historically stacks up very well against an offense like that. Which is why last year's game is very relevant in looking at how we performed against that style of offense.

Also, you say Michigan State should have an improved running game, but we should have a much improved run defense. I think Ballard and Klug are going to really take another big step this year and be very formidable against the run. Yes Michigan State has talent, that has never been the problem, but this is the most talented and deep Iowa team that I have ever seen, so I'm not too concerned that MSU also has talented WRs, TEs, LBs, etc.

I very much look forward to this game because I think Dantonio is really taking that program in the right direction, but I will be shocked if Iowa loses this game. This is not the type of game Iowa has lost under KF's tenure and I would bet very confidently that the Hawks win this year.
 
Considering the game went down to the last play the last 3 games, I would say it is pretty hard to overlook the Spartans.
 
Any list of our toughest games of the year begins with Ohio St. They are a legitimate NC contender, and have won the big 10 five consecutive years. Also we could lose to Arizona, and lose a Big10 game, and more than likely as long was we beat Ohio St. we will win a share of the Big10 and by virtue of tie breaker go smell the Roses!

The matchup against Mich. St. while it will be a tough game, it doesn't strike me as our toughest matchup. I like the fact they went to a 3-4 as this OL might have a hard time moving 4 upfront guys, but they should excel at getting downfield. I think we could potentially have some HUGE running lanes against a 3-4 D. Their offense doesn't concern me much. They don't run the ball well and they managed a late TD against us because of a hook and ladder, and then a deep seam pattern. If they beat us through the air, kudos to them. That means they kept our front 4 off the QB, and beat one of the better secondaries in the country. Lets just say I like our matchups there.....
 
Michigan St. is just as dangerous as Wisconsin in my opinion and I think we match up against a Wisconsin style offense better than we do against Michigan St. who is more potent in the passing game.

I just don't see them coming into Kinnick Stadium and beating us though. I don't think they'll be able to run on us well enough to open up the full potential of our their passing game.

Defensively I think they do a good job against us just like they did last year. It will be a close game.

Scariest games for me are
1. Ohio State
2. @ Arizona
3. @ Michigan
4. @ Northwestern
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan St.
7. Iowa State
8. Penn St.
 
You do a nice job of breaking down the personnel and providing stats, but you fail to mention what I think is the most important aspect of breaking this game down and that is scheme. Michigan State under Dantonio runs a more traditional, power style offensive scheme. They can spread it out when they need to, but that is not their preference. Iowa historically stacks up very well against an offense like that. Which is why last year's game is very relevant in looking at how we performed against that style of offense.

Also, you say Michigan State should have an improved running game, but we should have a much improved run defense. I think Ballard and Klug are going to really take another big step this year and be very formidable against the run. Yes Michigan State has talent, that has never been the problem, but this is the most talented and deep Iowa team that I have ever seen, so I'm not too concerned that MSU also has talented WRs, TEs, LBs, etc.

I very much look forward to this game because I think Dantonio is really taking that program in the right direction, but I will be shocked if Iowa loses this game. This is not the type of game Iowa has lost under KF's tenure and I would bet very confidently that the Hawks win this year.

LOL! You caught me there. Improvements made by the Iowa DL against the run along with the fact that MSU lost some quality O-linemen are among the reasons why I originally didn't worry quite as much about the MSU game.

The thing is this ... MSU IS "built" very similarly to Iowa. However, no offense to my beloved Hawks ... but MSU arguably has even more talent than Iowa. Of course, Iowa enjoys somewhat better coaching and typically more disciplined execution ... so many of the disparities tend to even out in the wash. Anyhow, the very fact that there are such similarities and the very fact that Iowa is traditionally built to match up against such schemes only ensures that Iowa will be able to prevent MSU from running away with the game. However, reciprocally, MSU is comparably capable of ensuring that Iowa won't run away with the game either. Thus, while Iowa fans might think that the Hawks "should" roll ... the match-ups also favor MSU in terms of being able to keep things close too. And, whenever you can keep a game close ... you always have a chance to win it. And, that means that that affords MSU the opportunity to beat Iowa ... even though Iowa will likely be favored ... and possibly heavily favored.

One thing that I recall from last season is that Baker broke some really nice runs on Iowa. I'll be very curious to see how MSU's running game fares against us in 2010. Furthermore, I'll be excited and interested to see if Iowa's DL will be able to exploit the perceived differential between their experience and MSU's (lack of) experience.

To reiterate the primary factors that give me concern are:
- I'm very impressed with the upside of their D
- Cousins is FAR MORE than just a game-manager
- MSU's passing game is capable of taking what Iowa's D can give them ... and yet also wield the threat of the run (just look at what Northwestern can do against us without the threat of the run)
 
I respect and like Dantonio

I felt the same way until last year. He publicly stated the he basically thought the refs cost him the Iowa game and that they deserved to win. In actuality the only reason it was an issue was because a couple wild trick plays happened to work for him at the end so they gained the lead. Fortunately, Stanzi saved the day and sent him home crying..
He lost a lot of class points if you ask me, but there isn't much of that around east lansing anyway.
 
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if we haven't learned by now the only game we should really worry about and the one I worry about every year is Northwestern.....

Contain Persa in the running game and make sure you do a good job of covering Dunsmore ... Dunsmore is freakin' impressive. Fortunately Iowa is capable of doing both. Also, force Northwestern to move the ball on the long field ... again, that's something that Iowa's D and punting game is capable of doing.

If the Iowa squad can remain healthy through the entire game, Iowa will most likely win. I don't see Stanzi giving them as many "gifts" as he gave them over the past 2 seasons at Kinnick.
 
I felt the same way until last year. He publicly stated the he basically thought the refs cost him the Iowa game and that they deserved to win. In actuality the only reason it was an issue was because a couple wild trick plays happened to work for him at the end so they gained the lead. Fortunately, Stanzi saved the day and sent him home crying..
He lost a lot of class points if you ask me, but there isn't much of that around east lansing anyway.

I don't respect Dantonio anymore either ... however, that doesn't mean that he's not a very good coach. My beef with him has more to do with how he's handled off-field transgressions by his players.
 
One thing working against Michigan State is that they are at Northwestern the week before traveling to Iowa City. One of the hardest things to do is go on the road and win two weeks in a row.
 
I 100% agree with you Homer. If you look at the defensive battle that was last years game, this year will be no different. I had never seen a defense play as physical as the MSU defense did when they faced us last year. This year will be no different. I think MSU is highly underrated, and will more than likely be the sleeper team this year in the BigTen.
 

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