The imbalance in the division is actually a really good thing for every team in the West. If you're looking to improve your lot in life, this is the place to be. Wisconsin already had a well-established brand and it has increased in value since 2014 when the divisions split. Since 2014, the Badgers are 29-5 in Big 10 play winning the division three times in four years. However, the Badgers are only 2-5 against the East Divisions Big 4 (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State) with one of those victories coming against what ended up being the weakest Michigan State team in over a decade. While the gaudy record and division championships haven’t translated to a Big 10 Championship in those 4 seasons, they have allowed the Badgers to play in high profile bowl games. In these bowl games, the Badgers have taken advantage, which has helped them advance their brand. As a result, the Badgers have advanced into the national conversation as they have come into the 2017 and 2018 seasons as trendy playoff picks by prognosticators. Under the old division alignment, the Badgers would be competing in division with Urban Meyer’s Ohio State Buckeyes and James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions annually and would likely have zero trips to Indianapolis, a less impressive conference record, and appeared in less high profile bowl games as a result. Without the division realignment, the perception of Wisconsin is that they are still an annual Big 10 Championship contender, but the talk of them being a potential playoff contender probably doesn’t happen.
The benefit of division realignment has obviously helped Wisconsin, but how does it help the other six teams in the division? Simply put, would you rather be wrestling with one 800 lbs gorilla on an annual basis or multiple 800 lbs gorillas? While there is an established hierarchy in the division, the hierarchy is somewhat fluid because none of the other six teams has a stranglehold on aow ny of the other spots with the exception of Illinois being the current bottom feeder. To illustrate this point, there are the Big 10 regular season records of the other six teams and their records against the teams immediately below or higher than them.
Iowa 22-12 vs. Wisconsin 1-3 vs. NW 2-2
Northwestern 21-13 vs. Iowa 2-2 vs. Nebraska 2-2
Nebraska 17-17 vs. NW 2-2 vs. Minnesota 2-2
Minnesota 14-20 vs. Nebraska 2-2 vs. Purdue 3-1
Purdue 7-27 vs. Minnesota 1-3 vs. Illinois 3-1
Illinois 7-27 vs. Purdue 1-3
If you believe the hierarchy is somewhat fluid, then it isn’t too hard to see any of these programs being able to get on a solid 2-3 year run and establish themselves as the new #2 or a stronger #2 in the case of Iowa. If you are the new #2, then theoretically you have a punchers chance to climb to #1 and get yourself to Indianapolis and advancing your brand even further the way Wisconsin has. When you look at the last round of hot shot coaching hires in the Big 10, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska ended up with PJ Fleck, Jeff Brohm, and Scott Frost while Indiana and Rutgers ended up with guys like Tom Allen and Chris Ash. So although the Big 10 West has a deservedly bad reputation as of today, the programs within the division have higher ceilings than the bottom half of the Big 10 East. This makes the Big 10 West jobs more attractive to prospective head coaches either as places where they can build and settle or as stepping stones to bigger jobs. This could be the sort of rising tide that raises all boats in the division and brings it to an overall level of respectability over the next decade.
The losers in the Big 10’s current division alignment are not in the West, they are in the East. Specifically they are Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, and surprisingly Michigan State over the long term. With the established big brands in the Big 10 East, I probably don’t need to explain why the ceilings for Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers are low. But how much more staying power does Michigan State have? It has been quite awhile since all three of the major Big 10 East brands (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan) have had it all clicking simultaneously. This created a void, which Michigan State has filled and filled quite well. However, times are changing and the Big 3 appear to be rising again. While most would agree that Ohio State is certainly higher and Penn State is trending higher than the Spartans in regards to the Big 10 East hierarchy, I believe the Wolverines will pass them as well after this season. I know a lot of people don’t like Jim Harbaugh, but it’s hard to objectively look at the direction of the Michigan program and say it’s not in the best place it’s been in over a decade in terms of what it’s doing and where it could be going. Having four annual power brokers in the same division would be unprecedented territory for any division in any conference so the house might be too crowded in the Big 10 East. Projecting forward, the Spartans appear to tbe odd man out and we could see them slipping to more of a 7-8 wins per year type of team as opposed to 9-10 wins.
In the end, while the West will probably never be as strong as the East at the top, it could be a lot more competitive year to year top to bottom and the overall imbalance will somewhat correct itself (as much as it reasonably can anyway) once one of their Big 4 inevitably falls back.
The benefit of division realignment has obviously helped Wisconsin, but how does it help the other six teams in the division? Simply put, would you rather be wrestling with one 800 lbs gorilla on an annual basis or multiple 800 lbs gorillas? While there is an established hierarchy in the division, the hierarchy is somewhat fluid because none of the other six teams has a stranglehold on aow ny of the other spots with the exception of Illinois being the current bottom feeder. To illustrate this point, there are the Big 10 regular season records of the other six teams and their records against the teams immediately below or higher than them.
Iowa 22-12 vs. Wisconsin 1-3 vs. NW 2-2
Northwestern 21-13 vs. Iowa 2-2 vs. Nebraska 2-2
Nebraska 17-17 vs. NW 2-2 vs. Minnesota 2-2
Minnesota 14-20 vs. Nebraska 2-2 vs. Purdue 3-1
Purdue 7-27 vs. Minnesota 1-3 vs. Illinois 3-1
Illinois 7-27 vs. Purdue 1-3
If you believe the hierarchy is somewhat fluid, then it isn’t too hard to see any of these programs being able to get on a solid 2-3 year run and establish themselves as the new #2 or a stronger #2 in the case of Iowa. If you are the new #2, then theoretically you have a punchers chance to climb to #1 and get yourself to Indianapolis and advancing your brand even further the way Wisconsin has. When you look at the last round of hot shot coaching hires in the Big 10, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska ended up with PJ Fleck, Jeff Brohm, and Scott Frost while Indiana and Rutgers ended up with guys like Tom Allen and Chris Ash. So although the Big 10 West has a deservedly bad reputation as of today, the programs within the division have higher ceilings than the bottom half of the Big 10 East. This makes the Big 10 West jobs more attractive to prospective head coaches either as places where they can build and settle or as stepping stones to bigger jobs. This could be the sort of rising tide that raises all boats in the division and brings it to an overall level of respectability over the next decade.
The losers in the Big 10’s current division alignment are not in the West, they are in the East. Specifically they are Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, and surprisingly Michigan State over the long term. With the established big brands in the Big 10 East, I probably don’t need to explain why the ceilings for Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers are low. But how much more staying power does Michigan State have? It has been quite awhile since all three of the major Big 10 East brands (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan) have had it all clicking simultaneously. This created a void, which Michigan State has filled and filled quite well. However, times are changing and the Big 3 appear to be rising again. While most would agree that Ohio State is certainly higher and Penn State is trending higher than the Spartans in regards to the Big 10 East hierarchy, I believe the Wolverines will pass them as well after this season. I know a lot of people don’t like Jim Harbaugh, but it’s hard to objectively look at the direction of the Michigan program and say it’s not in the best place it’s been in over a decade in terms of what it’s doing and where it could be going. Having four annual power brokers in the same division would be unprecedented territory for any division in any conference so the house might be too crowded in the Big 10 East. Projecting forward, the Spartans appear to tbe odd man out and we could see them slipping to more of a 7-8 wins per year type of team as opposed to 9-10 wins.
In the end, while the West will probably never be as strong as the East at the top, it could be a lot more competitive year to year top to bottom and the overall imbalance will somewhat correct itself (as much as it reasonably can anyway) once one of their Big 4 inevitably falls back.
