The Breakdown: Hawkeyes’ Comeback Falls Short at Minnesota

[ModebaSan]

In a nutshell this is what this team lacks is a defensive stopper at the point. We also lack an elite rebounder/shotblocker. Hopefully Joe Toussaint can provide that at the point next year. I don’t understand why Iowa doesn’t get in the mix for Chol Marial. He is 7’2” tall, friend of Peter Jok. His presence in the post would automatically change the trajectory of shots for anyone coming into the paint. This guy’s upside is really high and has room to grow 2 more inches. He can also shoot the 3 pointer. The kid is a 4 star and yet still unsigned. If I was Fran, I’d be all over this kid and have Jok in his ear to come to Iowa. Imagine having him and the Xman playing in the same frontcourt for years to come! Iowa teams that had success in the past have always had twin towers and were some of the nations leaders in rebounding.

 

[MWS604]

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Wins against Iowa State, UConn, Pitt, Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, are a good start to an NCAA berth. Win against Michigan and play .500 the rest of the way, they deserve a berth. Finish below .500 lose all the games against top 25 teams, not even an NIT team.

If they win only one more game, they are a lock for the NIT based on their current resume and having a winning record (17-16). It's more likely that they will win at least 2 more games out of the 3 winnable home games (Northwestern, Rutgers, and Indiana). Of the ten B1G games played, eight times our opponents scored 80+ points. Unless we magically get better on defense or several teams miss a ton of open 3s, I just don't see us doing better than 8-12.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I agree we have zero bad losses, which is undeniably a good feather in the cap for any program. But we also don't have that many good wins and I'm saying that with a straight face. Ohio State and Iowa State were nice, and maybe that's an understatement. But you won't find me bragging about Iowa's W-L record, at this point in the season.. We played a ridiculously soft non-conference schedule, filled with college after college that I had seriously never heard of.

You've never heard of Oregon, UConn or Pitt? Oregon was supposed to be very good. And UConn is usually a quality program. Pitt is up and down.

It's not Iowa's fault that these 3 aren't that good this year. We don't have to apologize for Oregon and UConn being down and drawing Pitt in the Big 10 ACC Challenge. And of course you mentioned ISU and UNI is often a tough game...just happen to be bad this season.

With a 20 game conference schedule and the 5 mentioned games I don't blame Iowa for scheduling a few easy games. Again...it's not our fault Oregon, UConn and Pitt aren't turning out to be good non conference games.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Connor doesn't shoot 3's very well, he's only 1 out of 12 for the season. Actually JB doesn't either, he's only making 38% of his three's.

The problems with JB at the point is on the defensive end, he is not quick enough to stop a good penetrating PG and Connor isn't much better. Yes our record is nice but the weaknesses at the point is glaring.

It's not just about 3 points shooting. Connor does a lot of things very well. And 12 shots is not a large enough sample size...especially when he's not hunting his shot. He's trying to facilitate on offense.

Everyone has a different opinion on 3 point shooting. I'm fine with 38%. That's the equivalent of 57% from 2. Cook leads the team at 57.9% from 2. So that's all a matter of opinion/taste. Also, JB started very slow this season due to injury. Throw out the first half dozen games or so and he's over 40%. IIRC he was even missing FTs early in the year.

I think JB is healthier and quicker this year. He's not elite. And he's not going to stop an elite PG. But I think we are "fine" with him running the point with Connor sharing minutes allowing JB to play some 2. I do hope the incoming PG is quicker, stronger and able to defend an opponent's elite level PG.

 

[ssckelley]

It's not just about 3 points shooting. Connor does a lot of things very well. And 12 shots is not a large enough sample size...especially when he's not hunting his shot. He's trying to facilitate on offense.

SSS, yes, but you literally said we had 2 guards who can hit an open 3. Connor has not shown that ability yet and he passes up a TON of wide open 3's.

 

[The Big LeHAWKski]

The one common factor of all successful NCAA teams over the past 20 years is stellar guard play.
Look at every Final four team over the past 20 years and you'll find every one of them had exceptional guards and even more common - they had exceptional guards who were Juniors or Seniors.
Yes, having "Twin Towers" sounds great, but the college game has changed greatly since those days. When looking at the 4 and 5 position, it's far more important that they defend the goal, alter and block shots than be counted on as potential down low scoring machines.
Until we can recruit all-B10 level guards, what we have now is all we're gonna get.

 

[WindsorHawk]

SSS, yes, but you literally said we had 2 guards who can hit an open 3. Connor has not shown that ability yet and he passes up a TON of wide open 3's.

I'm guessing it was inadvertent but you have misquoted me. Below is what I said...an aside to the PG conversation. You left out a pretty important word "starting." I am talking about JB and Moss...currently shooting 46.2% from 3.

And I love having 2 starting guards that can make 85% of their FTs and hit an open 3. How far back do we have to go to find an Iowa team that had this.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Not being mean or trolling, this is a solid NIT team, nothing more

Not trolling? Since Game 4 of the season I have not seen a projected NCAA field that did not include Iowa. I suppose there could have been one. But I didn't see it. I will bet a 5 year ban from this board that Iowa will make the NCAA this year.

 

[ssckelley]

I'm guessing it was inadvertent but you have misquoted me. Below is what I said...an aside to the PG conversation. You left out a pretty important word "starting." I am talking about JB and Moss...currently shooting 46.2% from 3.

And I love having 2 starting guards that can make 85% of their FTs and hit an open 3. How far back do we have to go to find an Iowa team that had this.

Ok, but we were talking about point guards.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Ok, but we were talking about point guards.

I don't know what to say. It was a clearly set apart comment and said starting. And neither the FT or 3 comment applies to Connor...unfortunately.

 

[Northside Hawk]

If they win only one more game, they are a lock for the NIT based on their current resume and having a winning record (17-16). It's more likely that they will win at least 2 more games out of the 3 winnable home games (Northwestern, Rutgers, and Indiana). Of the ten B1G games played, eight times our opponents scored 80+ points. Unless we magically get better on defense or several teams miss a ton of open 3s, I just don't see us doing better than 8-12.

Our 3pt fg% defense was key in several January wins. The last four games, starting with Penn State, have shown some leaks in the levee. It's time to reverse that trend and get teams back to around 30% or less from distance. Friday would be a good night to start.

 

[MWS604]

Not trolling? Since Game 4 of the season I have not seen a projected NCAA field that did not include Iowa. I suppose there could have been one. But I didn't see it. I will bet a 5 year ban from this board that Iowa will make the NCAA this year.

I am not one to go from one extreme or the other. After seeing 21 games so far this year, the team is definitely better than last year; we just disagree on how much better. In the first half of the B1G, we ended up winning one more game that I thought we would - OSU. That was based on their rankings earlier in the season. OSU is sitting at 3-6 in the conference right now, so it's not that I misjudged how good Iowa is, it turned out the OSU is not that good of a team similar to Oregon.

I think the Hawkeyes will finish the second half of the B1G at 3-7 (wins over NW, Indiana, and Rutgers at home), win the first game of the B1G tourney and finish the season at 20-13. With that, I don't think we have a good enough resume to be invited. But I could be wrong.

My guess is you see Iowa winning a few more games in the second half of conference play based on what you have seen in the first 21 games. As a fan I hope we do. But I just don't see it in the cards based on performance to date.

 

[MWS604]

Our 3pt fg% defense was key in several January wins. The last four games, starting with Penn State, have shown some leaks in the levee. It's time to reverse that trend and get teams back to around 30% or less from distance. Friday would be a good night to start.

I need to correct something - it was only 6 out of 10 games where our opponents scored more than 80 points. I agree that we need guard folks on the perimeter during the first 8 minutes. It seems that when opponents have clean looks early in the game they get in a groove and make them later in the game even if they are well-covered.

 

[IowaTeddy]

You've never heard of Oregon, UConn or Pitt? Oregon was supposed to be very good. And UConn is usually a quality program. Pitt is up and down.

It's not Iowa's fault that these 3 aren't that good this year. We don't have to apologize for Oregon and UConn being down and drawing Pitt in the Big 10 ACC Challenge. And of course you mentioned ISU and UNI is often a tough game...just happen to be bad this season.

With a 20 game conference schedule and the 5 mentioned games I don't blame Iowa for scheduling a few easy games. Again...it's not our fault Oregon, UConn and Pitt aren't turning out to be good non conference games.

On the national scene, I'll always stick up for Iowa and praise what we're about. But on this board and among die-hard fellow Hawk fans, I'm admittedly more critical. I'm here because I want to discuss the good, the bad, excitement, frustrations, etc. I'm not the blind fan screaming "if you don't think we're the best damn team, get out!".

My comments about the non-conference schedule (in both football and men's basketball..) were that Iowa would do better with more early challenges. I know this is highly debatable, because you might be trading wins for learning/growing experiences. And at the end of the day, what's really valuable to a team? I contend, that in college basketball, Iowa should challenge themselves more early in the season. Because of the length of the bball season, and the limited extent to which 1 good loss hurts you, Iowa would greatly benefit from early season games against top 20 opponents (like Michigan State plays every year). Iron sharpens iron, as they say. And, I'm simply talking about the team development side of this equation. Think about the recruiting and national exposure benefits of bettering the non-conference schedule?

And no, it's not Iowa's fault that Oregon, UCONN, and Pitt are somewhat softer than normal this year - slightly devaluing those three quality wins for Iowa. When criticizing Iowa's non-conference schedule, my mind doesn't go to the 3 best teams we played. It goes to the 6 or so exhibition quality games we played against NOBODY teams. I'm all for a few of these games. Getting 2-3 games under your belt, scoring +100 and winning by 50 is cool. But I wish they would more quickly transition into a challenging slate of games.

 

[ModebaSan]

On the national scene, I'll always stick up for Iowa and praise what we're about. But on this board and among die-hard fellow Hawk fans, I'm admittedly more critical. I'm here because I want to discuss the good, the bad, excitement, frustrations, etc. I'm not the blind fan screaming "if you don't think we're the best damn team, get out!".

My comments about the non-conference schedule (in both football and men's basketball..) were that Iowa would do better with more early challenges. I know this is highly debatable, because you might be trading wins for learning/growing experiences. And at the end of the day, what's really valuable to a team? I contend, that in college basketball, Iowa should challenge themselves more early in the season. Because of the length of the bball season, and the limited extent to which 1 good loss hurts you, Iowa would greatly benefit from early season games against top 20 opponents (like Michigan State plays every year). Iron sharpens iron, as they say. And, I'm simply talking about the team development side of this equation. Think about the recruiting and national exposure benefits of bettering the non-conference schedule?

And no, it's not Iowa's fault that Oregon, UCONN, and Pitt are somewhat softer than normal this year - slightly devaluing those three quality wins for Iowa. When criticizing Iowa's non-conference schedule, my mind doesn't go to the 3 best teams we played. It goes to the 6 or so exhibition quality games we played against NOBODY teams. I'm all for a few of these games. Getting 2-3 games under your belt, scoring +100 and winning by 50 is cool. But I wish they would more quickly transition into a challenging slate of games.

Couldn’t agree with you more. There are plenty of good teams nearby that we can schedule either home and away or on a neutral site. Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas, Tennesee for example. Or schedule a couple of tourneys where you know some of the bluebloods are gonna show up. Nobody is really playing their best ball early in the season, and although there is a possibility of a “good loss”, it is also a possibility to pick up a “good win”. A win over a blueblood program early in the season would go farther as far as confidence, experience, recruiting, and rankings, in the long run. Even a “good loss” can be beneficial also. I know it’s a long season, but if you put yourself out there on the national stage by at least two more games, it can improve the overall perception of your program.

 

[InGoodCo]

Couldn’t agree with you more. There are plenty of good teams nearby that we can schedule either home and away or on a neutral site. Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas, Tennesee for example. Or schedule a couple of tourneys where you know some of the bluebloods are gonna show up. Nobody is really playing their best ball early in the season, and although there is a possibility of a “good loss”, it is also a possibility to pick up a “good win”. A win over a blueblood program early in the season would go farther as far as confidence, experience, recruiting, and rankings, in the long run. Even a “good loss” can be beneficial also. I know it’s a long season, but if you put yourself out there on the national stage by at least two more games, it can improve the overall perception of your program.

Literally none of the 6 teams you mentioned would schedule a home and away game with Iowa or likely not even neutral. Like, not impossible, but so highly unlikely its laughable to assume they would. Set your sights lower... like, say Cincinnati. Which Iowa already has scheduled next season to replace UNI. Those 6 schools you mentioned get absolutely nothing by beating a program like Iowa even on their home court, let alone taking a risk of coming to Iowa City for a loss. Would you play Iowa if you were in their shoes? No. The only way Iowa faces those teams in the OOC is thru an exempt tournament, the ACC/B1G challenge or the Gavitt Tip Off.

I agree with you, Iowa needs to get some better cupcakes in to play, but they are playing 24 of their 31 games against power 5 conference opponents and they also played UNI. You'll struggle to find other teams outside the B1G playing more than that, so why would or should Iowa make it harder on themselves than everyone else? That's a bad business model for success.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Literally none of the 6 teams you mentioned would schedule a home and away game with Iowa or likely not even neutral. Like, not impossible, but so highly unlikely its laughable to assume they would. Set your sights lower... like, say Cincinnati. Which Iowa already has scheduled next season to replace UNI. Those 6 schools you mentioned get absolutely nothing by beating a program like Iowa even on their home court, let alone taking a risk of coming to Iowa City for a loss. Would you play Iowa if you were in their shoes? No. The only way Iowa faces those teams in the OOC is thru an exempt tournament, the ACC/B1G challenge or the Gavitt Tip Off.

I agree with you, Iowa needs to get some better cupcakes in to play, but they are playing 24 of their 31 games against power 5 conference opponents and they also played UNI. You'll struggle to find other teams outside the B1G playing more than that, so why would or should Iowa make it harder on themselves than everyone else? That's a bad business model for success.

Agree. And like I said. It's not our fault UConn, Pitt and Oregon aren't good this year. And UNI used to be good.

 

[IowaTeddy]

I agree with you, Iowa needs to get some better cupcakes in to play, but they are playing 24 of their 31 games against power 5 conference opponents and they also played UNI. You'll struggle to find other teams outside the B1G playing more than that, so why would or should Iowa make it harder on themselves than everyone else? That's a bad business model for success.

It's not about an early season win or loss. It's about battling and learning how to play in close games, learning how to come from behind, learning how to maintain a lead, how to handle a full court press (late in a tight game), etc.

Not to go too far off on a tangent... but this is so true for both football and basketball. For football in particular, an early season test would do Iowa so much good. How many times in the last decade have we seen Iowa Football lose a close game late, because they simply cannot execute a 2 minute offensive drive. They find themselves midway through the season, in their first tough conference game, and they have no idea how to manage a 2 minute offense. An early season test - forcing them to run a 2 minute drill - would do a world of good.

This is also how I think about the basketball schedule. It's not about an early win or loss. I literally don't care. It's about speeding up the learning curve. I wish this year's Iowa basketball team learned how to play team defense (both man and zone) back in November. Instead, we're hoping that they learn in February. That's dangerous and it means they're leaving a lot on the table.

 

[InGoodCo]

It's not about an early season win or loss. It's about battling and learning how to play in close games, learning how to come from behind, learning how to maintain a lead, how to handle a full court press (late in a tight game), etc.

Not to go too far off on a tangent... but this is so true for both football and basketball. For football in particular, an early season test would do Iowa so much good. How many times in the last decade have we seen Iowa Football lose a close game late, because they simply cannot execute a 2 minute offensive drive. They find themselves midway through the season, in their first tough conference game, and they have no idea how to manage a 2 minute offense. An early season test - forcing them to run a 2 minute drill - would do a world of good.

This is also how I think about the basketball schedule. It's not about an early win or loss. I literally don't care. It's about speeding up the learning curve. I wish this year's Iowa basketball team learned how to play team defense (both man and zone) back in November. Instead, we're hoping that they learn in February. That's dangerous and it means they're leaving a lot on the table.

I get what you are saying, steel sharpens steel - but at what costs? Iowa can't afford to drop a SINGLE game in football. NOT ONE if they want to be in the playoffs, so why schedule a loss?

I must be the only one that thinks Iowa has plenty of "tests" in football in their OOC. Maybe worry about beating South Dakota State or Western Michigan before going out and trying to book Notre Dame. Not to mention, ISU has seemingly turned a corner. If the rest of college football isn't doing it, why would it benefit Iowa to do it? They are already playing 10 games against p5 opponents while the SEC and others play 9 or in some cases 8. 2 less games against the best competition. Yet, I think SEC teams are just fine late in the year, in fact, they typically schedule cupcakes late in the season....

Playing a tougher schedule when they already play in one of the best conferences in college football does virtually NO good for Iowa. It just doesn't. Losing to Florida in September isn't going to make them better in November..... in fact, quite the opposite is more likely with the injuries teams face playing stronger and more physical competition.

also, Iowa played 5 of it's first 9 games against current NET top 75 opponents by the first week of December that included Oregon, Uconn, Pitt, ISU, WI and MSU. So, not sure what they left on the table there.

 

[IowaTeddy]

I get what you are saying, steel sharpens steel - but at what costs? Iowa can't afford to drop a SINGLE game in football. NOT ONE if they want to be in the playoffs, so why schedule a loss?

Two things:
1) NO TEAM can afford to lose a single game in college football and make the playoff. This might not always be technically true. But going forward, it's going to be the rule of thumb. And if anything, losing your first game hurts you less than your last game.

2) I don't care about Iowa's schedule. I want them to be better team. I want them to improve. You improve by pushing yourself and learning. I want Iowa football to learn how to run the 2 minute drill, BEFORE THEY NEED TO. I want Iowa bball to learn how to play defense, before they're down by 15 to Michigan State or Minnesota with the game slipping away.

Also - I'm not disagreeing with you that there's logic in their current scheduling strategies (for basketball and especially football). The entire program knows what it's doing. So maybe what I'm trying to say is that I wish Iowa would more effectively work on their weaknesses in these "easy" early season games. In football, when they're up against Northern Illinois or UNI... why not use the end of the 1st half as a 2 minute drill opportunity? They never do, they always sit on it. In basketball, why did they give up 82 points to UW Green Bay and 78 to Alabama State? Why not get aggressive and take pride in a great team defense?