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ChosenChildren

ChosenChildren

Well-Known Member
I'm getting tired of the numerous stupid posts on this board: Fran can't coach defense; Fran should be fired; Iowa's offense sucks; he's playing too many players; blah blah blah.

If you want to be taken seriously as a basketball fan, subscribe to the Pomeroy rating system. It costs $19.95 per year (basically the cost of a pizza and drinks for two people). Pomeroy breaks everything down and uses advanced analytics to rank teams based on at least 10 different categories. It then compares the teams and ranks them from 1 to 350. It is by far the best statistical analysis of college basketball ever conceived and its ability to predict outcomes of games is uncanny.

I'm not going into details, but here is how Fran's teams have ranked nationally at the end of each of the following years under the Pomeroy system:

2012 - #102
2013 - #29
2014 - #22
2015 - #23
2016- #22
2017-#70

The four year period from 2013 through 2016 arguably is one of the best 4 year runs in Iowa basketball history. We took a step back with a very young team in 2017 (one of the youngest teams in the country), but anyone can see the potential going forward. Prior to Fran, we were an absolute dumpster fire under Lickliker.

The people criticizing Fran on this board are insane. Fran has the Iowa program going in the right direction, and the future is very bright. The man can coach.
 
Well said. I agree. Plus, the phrase "learn the game" still makes me chuckle. That was a great thread that will live in infamy. I encourage all HN'rs to use "learn the game" whenever possible.
 
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I am somewhere in the middle; there is a role for analytics, but I am old school I still prefer the eyeball test. That being said, you are correct it is about the defensive efficiency numbers. Ppg allowed is a meaningless stat, Iowa wants to get out in transition, they give certain guys the green light to shoot whenever. All this equates to is opponents having more possession, hence more points. Points per possession is a much better indicator of where Iowa's defense is legitimately at.


Learn the game, people.:)
 
My only complaint about KenPom as a predictor, is that it doesn't measure results. Results matter. I find his tempo free stats fascinating and a tremendous resource, but I don't think you can measure the quality of teams without taking into account how they perform W/L against their schedule.

Case in point - an 11-20 OU team is rated #67 this year while a 19-15 Iowa team is rated #70. Yes, I know that his predictor/four factors stuff spits that out. But it's patently absurd.

If I really want to measure how a team has performed vs. their schedule, I think KPI is a better measurement.

http://www.kpisports.net/d-i_mbb/2016-17-d-mbb-kpi-rankings/
 
I agree he's got some great concepts and has found some players that fit what he wants to do. But I don't think anyone is off on criticism that his teams can be inconsistent defensively, as well as end of game management can be pretty spotty. He seems to like to leave it up to the players to have options to decide on rather than rigid plays. That Wisconsin win helped that criticism die a little bit at least.

People being pessimistic this year doesn't really count for much, as any coach is going to have down years. One of the best, Tom Izzo, was lucky to make the tournament and he has a one and done on his squad. But next year the expectations will rise some. Basabe and Uhl were two of his freshmen that looked promising that developement-wise flat lined, hopefully this group improves more like White, Uthoff, or Marble.
 
ChosenChildren said:
I'm getting tired of the numerous stupid posts on this board: Fran can't coach defense; Fran should be fired; Iowa's offense sucks; he's playing too many players; blah blah blah.

If you want to be taken seriously as a basketball fan, subscribe to the Pomeroy rating system. It costs $19.95 per year (basically the cost of a pizza and drinks for two people). Pomeroy breaks everything down and uses advanced analytics to rank teams based on at least 10 different categories. It then compares the teams and ranks them from 1 to 350. It is by far the best statistical analysis of college basketball ever conceived and its ability to predict outcomes of games is uncanny.

I'm not going into details, but here is how Fran's teams have ranked nationally at the end of each of the following years under the Pomeroy system:

2012 - #102
2013 - #29
2014 - #22
2015 - #23
2016- #22
2017-#70

The four year period from 2013 through 2016 arguably is one of the best 4 year runs in Iowa basketball history. We took a step back with a very young team in 2017 (one of the youngest teams in the country), but anyone can see the potential going forward. Prior to Fran, we were an absolute dumpster fire under Lickliker.

The people criticizing Fran on this board are insane. Fran has the Iowa program going in the right direction, and the future is very bright. The man can coach.
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Yea. I don't get it either. Rather annoying really. He's the perfect coach for this program right now. I honestly wonder what some people want, apparently just to beeeotch.
 
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