Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks - Week 8

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 8

Last week: 6-8
Overall: 42-41(51% winners)
Best Bets: 4-3 (57% winners)

Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today at home team in all CAPS.

NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan State
Sparty is off to their best start since 1966, but this is their first game outside of the state of Michigan, and it’s a look-ahead spot to Iowa next week. Meanwhile, Northwestern is coming off a bye week. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in the series, and the Wildcats have covered five of the last six meetings. Pat Fitzgerald is 18-8 in his last 26 games as an underdog. Last time MSU came into Evanston undefeated in October was 1997 and they lost. Michigan State 27, Northwestern 24

OHIO STATE -22.5 over Purdue
This is the first time the Boilermakers have been an underdog by 20 or more points in 13 years, even though they have the better Big Ten record heading into the game. Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, and they should be helped getting focused coming off the loss because this is a revenge game. Only one Purdue playe would start for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 31, Purdue 3

IOWA -5.5 over Wisconsin
Hawkeyes have dominated this series in recent years because the two teams have similar styles but Iowa has the better players. Upsetting the #1 team at home and then going on the road the very next week is tough to handle emotionally, just ask South Carolina. Hawkeyes have covered seven of the last eight meetings, and the Badgers are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog. Iowa 24, Wisconsin 14

LSU +6 over AUBURN
Home team has won nine of the last 10 in this series, and this is a revenge game for Gene Chizik’s crew. However, Les Miles has a solid SEC road record and while Cameron Newton is the best player on the field LSU has the best defense he has faced yet by far, allowing only 2.4 yards per rush. LSU also has the special teams advantage, while Auburn has played a slew of emotionally draining games so you have to think they’re due for a letdown, especially after setting a SEC scoring record last week. LSU 26, Auburn 24

MISSOURI +3 over Oklahoma
Oklahoma has played the stronger schedule and is #1 in the BCS, but statistically the Tigers have the stronger and more balanced team and the small lean to the Sooners by the oddsmakers reflects that. Remember that Ohio State’s opening line at Wisconsin last week was twice the size of this line, so that says something. Landry Jones is a nice player, but Blaine Gabbert is playing like a top 10 NFL draft pick right now at quarterback. Missouri 31, Oklahoma 27

North Carolina +6.5 over MIAMI, FLA.
Butch Davis is 13-4 as an underdog, while Randy Shannon is just 3-10 as an ACC favorite. Davis is also 3-0 ATS against Shannon, who is a terrible 5-13 ATS as a home favorite as a head coach. North Carolina is also getting the steadier, more consistent play at quarterback. Miami 21, North Carolina 20

UTAH STATE +3.5 over Hawaii
Last week the Warriors were our best bet and we called for their outright upset of Nevada at home, but now they go on the road in a major letdown spot here. Home team has won the last two in this series. The fact that Hawaii is the better team with the better record but is such a small favorite speaks volumes about the situational edge here for the Aggies. Hawaii 31, Utah State 30

STANFORD -34.5 over Washington State
Jim Harbaugh isn’t one to let off the gas, and the last two years he’s smashed the Cougars by a combined score of 98-13, and his Cardinal is coming off a bye. Stanford s the more physical team and they clearly have the better quarterback. Stanford 49, Washington State 10

LOUISVILLE +1 over Connecticut
Cardinals are playing at home and have the more consistent quarterback against a Huskie team that lost its mojo in Ann Arbor week one, as well as their best defensive player for the season in their last game. Connecticut hasn’t covered a road game all season long and this is a revenge spot for the home team. Louisville 23, Connecticut 20


COLORADO pick em over Texas Tech
Red Raiders have struggled on the road this year and in Big 12 play in general. They've also suspended their best pass rusher for the season. Colorado has played well at home this year, and beat Georgia straight up as a home dog just a few weeks ago. Buffaloes have covered the last four meetings. Colorado 26, Texas Tech 23

Nebraska -6 over OKLAHOMA STATE
This line stands out quite a bit considering Oklahoma State played a lot better last week and its a touchdown underdog at home. However, Cowboys run defense hasn't faced a team that can rush the ball as well as Nebraska can, and after the way they embarrassed themselves on national television last week they will be out to make a statement. Nebraska 34, Oklahoma State 24

Best Bet—Cowboys -3 over Giants
Dallas is 1-4, while New York is 4-2, so why are the Cowboys favored here? Because records aside they rank in the top 5 in the NFL in every offensive category except rushing, and the top five in the NFL in every category in defense. They are clearly the more talented team and they’re at home in a must-win or the season is over for them scenario. Not to mention if they get Wade Phillips fired these guys might have to deal with a real coach that will crack the whip next year. Cowboys 28, Giants 20
 
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How about a stone-cold prediction on your clownies? You know, the team that has better overall team speed than Iowa.....and kind of remind physically of a mid-level SEC team - you know Arkansas, or South Carolina......

.....or don't they pay you for that stuff any longer........
 


Steve, I'm a little surprised by the Missouri pick. Gary Pinkel has never beaten Oklahoma and it has rarely been close. Missouri has only beaten Oklahoma once in the past 20 years (a 5-6 Oklahoma team in 1998). In fact Missouri has never beaten Oklahoma when Oklahoma has won 9 or more games in a season ever. All the other ones look pretty solid.
 


How about a stone-cold prediction on your clownies? You know, the team that has better overall team speed than Iowa.....and kind of remind physically of a mid-level SEC team - you know Arkansas, or South Carolina......

.....or don't they pay you for that stuff any longer........


Wow! Did Steve actually say that? I realized he drank a little bit of the kool-aid.........my goodness.
 


How about a stone-cold prediction on your clownies? You know, the team that has better overall team speed than Iowa.....and kind of remind physically of a mid-level SEC team - you know Arkansas, or South Carolina......

.....or don't they pay you for that stuff any longer........
Hey Steve....still smarting from that pick of ISU to win over Utah? Only lost by 40.
 




Interesting pick taking Stanford to cover. Washington St. has been improving each week and has covered their last three games, including games against Oregon and Arizona, easily. Plus giving 34.5 (I think it's actually up to 36.5) to a confrerence opponent is a ridiculous amount of points.
 


Provided his 6-8 record last week is correct (beings as he hasn't gone back and corrected his record from previous "miscalculations" I didn't even bother to check) his actual record is....

40-42-1 (51% losers)

Steve is a liar.

Duffy went 6-4-1 last week for his second consecutive solid week (11-6-1 over the last two weeks). Bear in mind I did this despite the fact I'm an idiot. I bet on things like "patriotism" and "my wife went to school there and I love rooting against her team". At some point I will let my dog pick a game or two, but I'm saving that for when I need a slumpbuster.

YTD 25-21-1

Tampa Bay -3 vs Rams
The Rams have a rookie QB (albeit one who’s played pretty well) and are on the road facing a decent team. The Rams are 0-2 on the road this year, make that 0-3.

Washington +3 @ Chicago
The Bears are 4-2, they are also really bad. They might eek out a 13-12 victory here but I’ll take 3 and won’t be surprised if the skins win outright. On a side note I wouldn’t put Jay Cutler in charge of a beer league softball team and the Bears gave him the keys to the franchise. Idiots.

Steelers -3 @ Miami
I think the Steelers were the best team in the NFL before Big Ben came back, and they didn’t skip a beat when he returned. Miami no longer is an easy victory but I don’t think they can keep up with this Steelers team offensively.

Texas Tech -3 @ Colorado
The only thing I know about Colorado is they are absolutely terrible. In fact I think there is a 50/50 shot the Pac 10 tries to give them back to the B12. In all honesty when I bet this game I mistook Colorado for Colorado State (I told you I’m an idiot). After I realized my mistake I’m still OK with it. TT still puts up 40 per game and Colorado struggles to put up 20.

Air Force +18 ½ @ TCU
So I’ve been on a kick betting on the academies this year, and they have rewarded me by going something like 5-1 for me. I’m going to dance with the horse I rode in on, or ride the one I brung… or something like that. In all seriousness it’s very difficult to cover a big spread against AF because they run the ball, eat up clock, and shorten the game. Combine that with the fact they are a pretty good football team and I just don’t see this being a 3 score game.

Hawaii -3 ½ @ Utah State
I like Hawaii. I’ve watched them play several times and I enjoy it. I like rooting for them. I bet on them.

Auburn -6 vs LSU
People have drawn comparison to LSU to Iowa last year, undefeated and ugly. I got news for LSU and their fans, ugly wont beat Cam Newton and it won’t beat Auburn. When Chuck Norris checks under his bed he’s looking for Cam Newton. This is Cam’s national coming out Heisman party. Auburn hung 65 on a damn good Arkansas team, and LSU struggled to put up 30 on Mcneese State. Auburn win 674-6.

Kansas State +6 @ Baylor
If you take away the perfect storm Nebraska game KState has been solid this year. They have a solid rushing game and for most of the year has had a pretty stingy defense (factor out Nebraska and they’ve held opponents to under 20 ppg). Baylor tough to get a handle on, they have blown out quite a few teams but they also lost to a TT team that got stomped by ISU. I like KState enough here to take points.

Duke +27 @ V Tech
Kind of a flyer here. I think this is a bit of a reputation spread. I mean Duke is still bad but outside of the Alabama blowout they’ve been within a couple of TD’s to everyone on their schedule. VTech is talented offensively but they have been wildly inconsistent this year. One of 3 things will happen, VTech lays an egg and this game is close. VTech plays well and wins by 24, VTech plays well and wins by 28+. Two of those 3 are good for me so I’ll take Duke and the points.

Navy +7 vs Notre Dame
Navy has beaten better Notre Dame teams in the last few years. You can say “well that doesn’t mean anything because they are a different team this year”, but guess what, they aren’t. They are the same damn team year in and year out, they win 5-8 ball games and go to the occasional bowl. Also see what I said in the AF commentary about the academies. America **** YEAH!!!!

There you have it, ten games picked by someone in ten minuites, and what will probably be my first losing record in a month.
 




Wow! Did Steve actually say that? I realized he drank a little bit of the kool-aid.........my goodness.

Yes, he did. And what I quoted or said is just a snippet. Said it on a thread a couple years back on JM's old site. I could be wrong, but I believe it was around the '08 season.
 




http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/17866-stone-cold-upsets-lead-pipe-locks-week-7-a.html

By my count, Steve went 4-9-1 last week, not 6-8. I have a tie when he took the under on Wisky/OSU, when it was a push. He probably counts that as a win. I still can't find the additional win he credits himself with. Someone can double check if they like.

How are you getting 4-9-1? He went 6-8 counting the wisconsin/osu under push as a loss.

He won on Ark St, Steelers, Pitt, SDSU, Iowa, and Hawaii.
 
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How are you getting 4-9-1? He went 6-8 counting the wisconsin/osu under push as a loss.

He won on Ark St, Steelers, Pitt, SDSU, Iowa, and Hawaii.

If you bet the O/U and it ends on the number is a push, how could you count that as W or a L?

In addition to being a liar it also appears he's clueless when it comes to sports betting.
 


Looks like I was wrong. I'm suspecting that I saw SDSU and Hawaii in CAPS and confused myself that they were favorites. 6-8 it is.
 


Everyone seems to like Northwestern......but they're forgetting one important thing. Michigan State is still undefeated and thus will play with heart. It's after they've lost a game that they traditionally start "mailing it in" .
Northwestern has played nobody and looked crappy doing it. No small feat for the fighting Fitzies.

I do like North Carolina ( those young players are starting to get wise/experienced; you know....earning their paychecks) and I like the MAD HATTER of course.
 


After Having Kentucky and Wisky last week ....This week I will take Northwestern and Mizzou don't need the points. THey win.
 


I went 8-4 ATS last week, and am 1-0 so far this week (I took Oregon -27 last night).

I will pick my games and post them tonight. I actually agree with more of Duffman's picks than Deace's this week.
 


Here are the rest of my games (HOME team in CAPS):

IOWA -6.5 vs Wisconsin

Texas Tech -3 at COLORADO

OHIO ST -23.5 vs Purdue

OKLAHOMA ST +6 vs Nebraska

LSU +6 at AUBURN

TEXAS -21 vs Iowa St

ILLINOIS -13.5 vs Indiana

UTAH -30.5 vs Colorado St

Patriots +2 at SAN DIEGO

BUCCANEERS -3 vs Rams

Redskins +3 at BEARS

Steelers -3 at DOLPHINS

Vikings +2.5 at PACKERS
 


If you bet the O/U and it ends on the number is a push, how could you count that as W or a L?

In addition to being a liar it also appears he's clueless when it comes to sports betting.

Your hard-on for Deace is comical. I look forward to it every week.
 






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