SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 8
Last week: 6-8
Overall: 42-41(51% winners)
Best Bets: 4-3 (57% winners)
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today at home team in all CAPS.
NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan State
Sparty is off to their best start since 1966, but this is their first game outside of the state of Michigan, and it’s a look-ahead spot to Iowa next week. Meanwhile, Northwestern is coming off a bye week. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in the series, and the Wildcats have covered five of the last six meetings. Pat Fitzgerald is 18-8 in his last 26 games as an underdog. Last time MSU came into Evanston undefeated in October was 1997 and they lost. Michigan State 27, Northwestern 24
OHIO STATE -22.5 over Purdue
This is the first time the Boilermakers have been an underdog by 20 or more points in 13 years, even though they have the better Big Ten record heading into the game. Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, and they should be helped getting focused coming off the loss because this is a revenge game. Only one Purdue playe would start for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 31, Purdue 3
IOWA -5.5 over Wisconsin
Hawkeyes have dominated this series in recent years because the two teams have similar styles but Iowa has the better players. Upsetting the #1 team at home and then going on the road the very next week is tough to handle emotionally, just ask South Carolina. Hawkeyes have covered seven of the last eight meetings, and the Badgers are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog. Iowa 24, Wisconsin 14
LSU +6 over AUBURN
Home team has won nine of the last 10 in this series, and this is a revenge game for Gene Chizik’s crew. However, Les Miles has a solid SEC road record and while Cameron Newton is the best player on the field LSU has the best defense he has faced yet by far, allowing only 2.4 yards per rush. LSU also has the special teams advantage, while Auburn has played a slew of emotionally draining games so you have to think they’re due for a letdown, especially after setting a SEC scoring record last week. LSU 26, Auburn 24
MISSOURI +3 over Oklahoma
Oklahoma has played the stronger schedule and is #1 in the BCS, but statistically the Tigers have the stronger and more balanced team and the small lean to the Sooners by the oddsmakers reflects that. Remember that Ohio State’s opening line at Wisconsin last week was twice the size of this line, so that says something. Landry Jones is a nice player, but Blaine Gabbert is playing like a top 10 NFL draft pick right now at quarterback. Missouri 31, Oklahoma 27
North Carolina +6.5 over MIAMI, FLA.
Butch Davis is 13-4 as an underdog, while Randy Shannon is just 3-10 as an ACC favorite. Davis is also 3-0 ATS against Shannon, who is a terrible 5-13 ATS as a home favorite as a head coach. North Carolina is also getting the steadier, more consistent play at quarterback. Miami 21, North Carolina 20
UTAH STATE +3.5 over Hawaii
Last week the Warriors were our best bet and we called for their outright upset of Nevada at home, but now they go on the road in a major letdown spot here. Home team has won the last two in this series. The fact that Hawaii is the better team with the better record but is such a small favorite speaks volumes about the situational edge here for the Aggies. Hawaii 31, Utah State 30
STANFORD -34.5 over Washington State
Jim Harbaugh isn’t one to let off the gas, and the last two years he’s smashed the Cougars by a combined score of 98-13, and his Cardinal is coming off a bye. Stanford s the more physical team and they clearly have the better quarterback. Stanford 49, Washington State 10
LOUISVILLE +1 over Connecticut
Cardinals are playing at home and have the more consistent quarterback against a Huskie team that lost its mojo in Ann Arbor week one, as well as their best defensive player for the season in their last game. Connecticut hasn’t covered a road game all season long and this is a revenge spot for the home team. Louisville 23, Connecticut 20
COLORADO pick em over Texas Tech
Red Raiders have struggled on the road this year and in Big 12 play in general. They've also suspended their best pass rusher for the season. Colorado has played well at home this year, and beat Georgia straight up as a home dog just a few weeks ago. Buffaloes have covered the last four meetings. Colorado 26, Texas Tech 23
Nebraska -6 over OKLAHOMA STATE
This line stands out quite a bit considering Oklahoma State played a lot better last week and its a touchdown underdog at home. However, Cowboys run defense hasn't faced a team that can rush the ball as well as Nebraska can, and after the way they embarrassed themselves on national television last week they will be out to make a statement. Nebraska 34, Oklahoma State 24
Best Bet—Cowboys -3 over Giants
Dallas is 1-4, while New York is 4-2, so why are the Cowboys favored here? Because records aside they rank in the top 5 in the NFL in every offensive category except rushing, and the top five in the NFL in every category in defense. They are clearly the more talented team and they’re at home in a must-win or the season is over for them scenario. Not to mention if they get Wade Phillips fired these guys might have to deal with a real coach that will crack the whip next year. Cowboys 28, Giants 20
Last week: 6-8
Overall: 42-41(51% winners)
Best Bets: 4-3 (57% winners)
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today at home team in all CAPS.
NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan State
Sparty is off to their best start since 1966, but this is their first game outside of the state of Michigan, and it’s a look-ahead spot to Iowa next week. Meanwhile, Northwestern is coming off a bye week. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in the series, and the Wildcats have covered five of the last six meetings. Pat Fitzgerald is 18-8 in his last 26 games as an underdog. Last time MSU came into Evanston undefeated in October was 1997 and they lost. Michigan State 27, Northwestern 24
OHIO STATE -22.5 over Purdue
This is the first time the Boilermakers have been an underdog by 20 or more points in 13 years, even though they have the better Big Ten record heading into the game. Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, and they should be helped getting focused coming off the loss because this is a revenge game. Only one Purdue playe would start for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 31, Purdue 3
IOWA -5.5 over Wisconsin
Hawkeyes have dominated this series in recent years because the two teams have similar styles but Iowa has the better players. Upsetting the #1 team at home and then going on the road the very next week is tough to handle emotionally, just ask South Carolina. Hawkeyes have covered seven of the last eight meetings, and the Badgers are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog. Iowa 24, Wisconsin 14
LSU +6 over AUBURN
Home team has won nine of the last 10 in this series, and this is a revenge game for Gene Chizik’s crew. However, Les Miles has a solid SEC road record and while Cameron Newton is the best player on the field LSU has the best defense he has faced yet by far, allowing only 2.4 yards per rush. LSU also has the special teams advantage, while Auburn has played a slew of emotionally draining games so you have to think they’re due for a letdown, especially after setting a SEC scoring record last week. LSU 26, Auburn 24
MISSOURI +3 over Oklahoma
Oklahoma has played the stronger schedule and is #1 in the BCS, but statistically the Tigers have the stronger and more balanced team and the small lean to the Sooners by the oddsmakers reflects that. Remember that Ohio State’s opening line at Wisconsin last week was twice the size of this line, so that says something. Landry Jones is a nice player, but Blaine Gabbert is playing like a top 10 NFL draft pick right now at quarterback. Missouri 31, Oklahoma 27
North Carolina +6.5 over MIAMI, FLA.
Butch Davis is 13-4 as an underdog, while Randy Shannon is just 3-10 as an ACC favorite. Davis is also 3-0 ATS against Shannon, who is a terrible 5-13 ATS as a home favorite as a head coach. North Carolina is also getting the steadier, more consistent play at quarterback. Miami 21, North Carolina 20
UTAH STATE +3.5 over Hawaii
Last week the Warriors were our best bet and we called for their outright upset of Nevada at home, but now they go on the road in a major letdown spot here. Home team has won the last two in this series. The fact that Hawaii is the better team with the better record but is such a small favorite speaks volumes about the situational edge here for the Aggies. Hawaii 31, Utah State 30
STANFORD -34.5 over Washington State
Jim Harbaugh isn’t one to let off the gas, and the last two years he’s smashed the Cougars by a combined score of 98-13, and his Cardinal is coming off a bye. Stanford s the more physical team and they clearly have the better quarterback. Stanford 49, Washington State 10
LOUISVILLE +1 over Connecticut
Cardinals are playing at home and have the more consistent quarterback against a Huskie team that lost its mojo in Ann Arbor week one, as well as their best defensive player for the season in their last game. Connecticut hasn’t covered a road game all season long and this is a revenge spot for the home team. Louisville 23, Connecticut 20
COLORADO pick em over Texas Tech
Red Raiders have struggled on the road this year and in Big 12 play in general. They've also suspended their best pass rusher for the season. Colorado has played well at home this year, and beat Georgia straight up as a home dog just a few weeks ago. Buffaloes have covered the last four meetings. Colorado 26, Texas Tech 23
Nebraska -6 over OKLAHOMA STATE
This line stands out quite a bit considering Oklahoma State played a lot better last week and its a touchdown underdog at home. However, Cowboys run defense hasn't faced a team that can rush the ball as well as Nebraska can, and after the way they embarrassed themselves on national television last week they will be out to make a statement. Nebraska 34, Oklahoma State 24
Best Bet—Cowboys -3 over Giants
Dallas is 1-4, while New York is 4-2, so why are the Cowboys favored here? Because records aside they rank in the top 5 in the NFL in every offensive category except rushing, and the top five in the NFL in every category in defense. They are clearly the more talented team and they’re at home in a must-win or the season is over for them scenario. Not to mention if they get Wade Phillips fired these guys might have to deal with a real coach that will crack the whip next year. Cowboys 28, Giants 20
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