SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 7
Last week: 10-6
Overall: 36-33 (52% winners)
Best Bets: 3-3
Odds are based on opening lines found at http://sportsdirect.usatoday.c...nterstitialskip and home team is in all CAPS.
Arkansas State -14.5 over INDIANA
The Hoosiers have lost tailback Darius Willis, their only viable/physical threat in the backfield, for the season making them an even more one-dimensional team. That’s adding a serious injury to the insult of losing the last two weeks. Last year in this exact same spot ASU lost by only three points at Iowa. Indiana 27, Arkansas State 17
Illinois +7.5 over MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans have played consecutive games they’ve had to be up for emotionally, so this is definitely a letdown spot. MSU also will be without one of its best defensive backs as well. The Illini have the most improved defense in the Big Ten, and haven’t surrendered more than 24 points in a game this season. Sparty has covered only seven of its last 21 games as a home favorite, while Illinois is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 as a Big Ten road underdog. MSU is just 2-5 ATS the last seven years after playing Michigan , and the last time they were 6-0 after beating Michigan in 1999 they got 50-pointed the next week by Purdue. This is not a program that handles success well, which is why they haven’t been 7-0 since 1966. Michigan State 23, Illinois 20
GIANTS -11 over Lions
Talk about teams that don’t handle success well. The Lions last scored 40+ points in a game, as they did last week, in November of 2007 to raise their record to 6-2 at the time. Since then Detroit has gone 4-41, and is threatening its own record for NFL road futility. Giants have a balanced offense and are starting to get after the quarterback again. Detroit got its win, so that means a letdown instead of momentum. Giants 28, Lions 13
STEELERS -13 over Browns
This is a revenge game for Pittsburgh, who was knocked out of the AFC playoffs last year by their long-time rivals. Ben Roethlisberger returns at quarterback, while the Browns are going to start rookie Colt McCoy against probably the best defense on the planet. Steelers 24, Browns 6
Ravens +2.5 over PATRIOTS
Baltimore is just the better team here, and without a deep threat in Randy Moss the Ravens defense will be able to bottle up the Pats' passing game. Meanwhile Baltimore's physical receivers against the young and undersized corners is a huge mismatch in its favor. Ravens 24, Patriots 21
BRONCOS +3 over Jets
One of the classic situations to wager in the NFL is the team that won at home on Monday night and then is favored on the road the next week on a short turnaround. Traditionally those teams don’t do well. The spread in this game doesn’t make sense so that should tell you something as well. The Jets are clearly the stronger team, and they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Plus the Broncos are a one-dimensional team, and Mark Sanchez has a stellar 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But New York likely won’t have its top cornerback, and this is a letdown spot here. Broncos 21, Jets 20
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SYRACUSE
The Orangemen are a surprising 4-1, but two of those wins came against FCS foes. Meanwhile, the Panthers are talented underachievers desperate for a win here with the meat of the conference schedule still to come, and Syracuse is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite at home. Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 21
TEXAS A&M -3 over Missouri
Any time an unranked team is favored over a ranked team at home that line means somebody knows something the public doesn’t know. Like this is Missouri ’s first true road game of the season, and the Aggies are in desperation mode after two straight losses. Mike Sherman is 10-3 as a home favorite at Texas A&M. Missouri ’s star quarterback is also banged up with a hip pointer. Texas A&M 31, Missouri 24
TEXAS TECH -3 over Oklahoma State
This is another case of an unranked team being favored at home over a ranked opponent. Oklahoma State has failed to cover five straight as an underdog, and in a battle of two teams with weak defenses and high powered offenses you take the home team to get an extra stop of two with the momentum of the crowd. Cowboys haven’t won in Lubbock since before Pearl Harbor . Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 30
Ohio State-WISCONSIN under 49
The Buckeyes won last year’s meeting, 31-13, but were outgained by 200 yards as turnovers and special teams breakdowns on the road were the Badgers’ undoing. Ohio State has yet to face a team that can run the football consistently and effectively, and it should be rocking in Mad Town with the Buckeyes carrying the #1 ranking. Last two times these two have met at night in Madison was 2003 (a 17-10 Wisconsin win) and 2008 (a 20-17 Ohio State victory), both were low-scoring games. Badgers may have the best tailback tandem in the country, but Buckeyes haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 29 straight games, so it’s strength against strength in a series that has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, so I’m sensing a bit of a defensive game. Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 17
Arkansas +3 over AUBURN
The Tigers have been playing with fire, needing to come back in the fourth quarter against their last three BCS conferences opponents. They also struggle in pass defense, which is a bad matchup versus the strength of Ryan Mallett and the Razorbacks. Arkansas Coach Bobby Petrino has never lost to his former employer, and is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Arkansas 33, Auburn 28
SAN DIEGO STATE +3.5 over Air Force
Aztecs haven’t beaten a ranked team since Bill Clinton was mopping up the floor with Bob Dole, so they’re due. San Diego State defensive coordinator Rocky Long used to be the head coach at New Mexico , and in his last 10 matchups versus the Falcons his teams have held them below their rushing average in nine of them. This is also a big revenge spot for San Diego State , which has lost three straight blowouts in the series. San Diego State 30, Air Force 27
Iowa -3 over MICHIGAN
The underdog has covered six of the last seven which gives the maize and blue some hope, but a far more ominous trend is that Michigan has failed to cover its last eight Big Ten home games. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes are a sparkling 8-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten road games. They’re also the more physical and experienced team. I’m not sure there’s a matchup in this game that favors Michigan , so this really comes down to whether or not Iowa keeps its composure on the road, something it didn’t do in its loss at Arizona . The Wolverines have only beaten one Big Ten team that went to a bowl game since 2007, and that was a somewhat fluky comeback against Wisconsin in 2008. So until they show they have the resolve to win games like this I don’t see how you can predict they will. Denard Robinson will play better than he did last week, but it won’t be enough considering the Wolverines sieve-like defense. I am 5-1 ATS picking Michigan games this year. Iowa 31, Michigan 21
Best Bet—HAWAII +8 over Nevada
Nevada has only covered one of its last seven trips to Aloha Stadium, and the home team has covered seven of the last nine in the series. Hawaii is coming off one of its biggest road wins in years, rolling at Fresno State , 49-27, last week and has momentum. On the other hand, the Wolfpack have failed to cover their last two games since entering the top 25 for the first time since 1948. They’re clearly feeling the pressure of that rare national ranking. I’m calling for the outright upset here. Hawaii 43, Nevada 37
http://twitter.com/deaceradio
Last week: 10-6
Overall: 36-33 (52% winners)
Best Bets: 3-3
Odds are based on opening lines found at http://sportsdirect.usatoday.c...nterstitialskip and home team is in all CAPS.
Arkansas State -14.5 over INDIANA
The Hoosiers have lost tailback Darius Willis, their only viable/physical threat in the backfield, for the season making them an even more one-dimensional team. That’s adding a serious injury to the insult of losing the last two weeks. Last year in this exact same spot ASU lost by only three points at Iowa. Indiana 27, Arkansas State 17
Illinois +7.5 over MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans have played consecutive games they’ve had to be up for emotionally, so this is definitely a letdown spot. MSU also will be without one of its best defensive backs as well. The Illini have the most improved defense in the Big Ten, and haven’t surrendered more than 24 points in a game this season. Sparty has covered only seven of its last 21 games as a home favorite, while Illinois is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 as a Big Ten road underdog. MSU is just 2-5 ATS the last seven years after playing Michigan , and the last time they were 6-0 after beating Michigan in 1999 they got 50-pointed the next week by Purdue. This is not a program that handles success well, which is why they haven’t been 7-0 since 1966. Michigan State 23, Illinois 20
GIANTS -11 over Lions
Talk about teams that don’t handle success well. The Lions last scored 40+ points in a game, as they did last week, in November of 2007 to raise their record to 6-2 at the time. Since then Detroit has gone 4-41, and is threatening its own record for NFL road futility. Giants have a balanced offense and are starting to get after the quarterback again. Detroit got its win, so that means a letdown instead of momentum. Giants 28, Lions 13
STEELERS -13 over Browns
This is a revenge game for Pittsburgh, who was knocked out of the AFC playoffs last year by their long-time rivals. Ben Roethlisberger returns at quarterback, while the Browns are going to start rookie Colt McCoy against probably the best defense on the planet. Steelers 24, Browns 6
Ravens +2.5 over PATRIOTS
Baltimore is just the better team here, and without a deep threat in Randy Moss the Ravens defense will be able to bottle up the Pats' passing game. Meanwhile Baltimore's physical receivers against the young and undersized corners is a huge mismatch in its favor. Ravens 24, Patriots 21
BRONCOS +3 over Jets
One of the classic situations to wager in the NFL is the team that won at home on Monday night and then is favored on the road the next week on a short turnaround. Traditionally those teams don’t do well. The spread in this game doesn’t make sense so that should tell you something as well. The Jets are clearly the stronger team, and they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Plus the Broncos are a one-dimensional team, and Mark Sanchez has a stellar 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But New York likely won’t have its top cornerback, and this is a letdown spot here. Broncos 21, Jets 20
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SYRACUSE
The Orangemen are a surprising 4-1, but two of those wins came against FCS foes. Meanwhile, the Panthers are talented underachievers desperate for a win here with the meat of the conference schedule still to come, and Syracuse is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite at home. Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 21
TEXAS A&M -3 over Missouri
Any time an unranked team is favored over a ranked team at home that line means somebody knows something the public doesn’t know. Like this is Missouri ’s first true road game of the season, and the Aggies are in desperation mode after two straight losses. Mike Sherman is 10-3 as a home favorite at Texas A&M. Missouri ’s star quarterback is also banged up with a hip pointer. Texas A&M 31, Missouri 24
TEXAS TECH -3 over Oklahoma State
This is another case of an unranked team being favored at home over a ranked opponent. Oklahoma State has failed to cover five straight as an underdog, and in a battle of two teams with weak defenses and high powered offenses you take the home team to get an extra stop of two with the momentum of the crowd. Cowboys haven’t won in Lubbock since before Pearl Harbor . Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 30
Ohio State-WISCONSIN under 49
The Buckeyes won last year’s meeting, 31-13, but were outgained by 200 yards as turnovers and special teams breakdowns on the road were the Badgers’ undoing. Ohio State has yet to face a team that can run the football consistently and effectively, and it should be rocking in Mad Town with the Buckeyes carrying the #1 ranking. Last two times these two have met at night in Madison was 2003 (a 17-10 Wisconsin win) and 2008 (a 20-17 Ohio State victory), both were low-scoring games. Badgers may have the best tailback tandem in the country, but Buckeyes haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 29 straight games, so it’s strength against strength in a series that has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, so I’m sensing a bit of a defensive game. Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 17
Arkansas +3 over AUBURN
The Tigers have been playing with fire, needing to come back in the fourth quarter against their last three BCS conferences opponents. They also struggle in pass defense, which is a bad matchup versus the strength of Ryan Mallett and the Razorbacks. Arkansas Coach Bobby Petrino has never lost to his former employer, and is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Arkansas 33, Auburn 28
SAN DIEGO STATE +3.5 over Air Force
Aztecs haven’t beaten a ranked team since Bill Clinton was mopping up the floor with Bob Dole, so they’re due. San Diego State defensive coordinator Rocky Long used to be the head coach at New Mexico , and in his last 10 matchups versus the Falcons his teams have held them below their rushing average in nine of them. This is also a big revenge spot for San Diego State , which has lost three straight blowouts in the series. San Diego State 30, Air Force 27
Iowa -3 over MICHIGAN
The underdog has covered six of the last seven which gives the maize and blue some hope, but a far more ominous trend is that Michigan has failed to cover its last eight Big Ten home games. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes are a sparkling 8-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten road games. They’re also the more physical and experienced team. I’m not sure there’s a matchup in this game that favors Michigan , so this really comes down to whether or not Iowa keeps its composure on the road, something it didn’t do in its loss at Arizona . The Wolverines have only beaten one Big Ten team that went to a bowl game since 2007, and that was a somewhat fluky comeback against Wisconsin in 2008. So until they show they have the resolve to win games like this I don’t see how you can predict they will. Denard Robinson will play better than he did last week, but it won’t be enough considering the Wolverines sieve-like defense. I am 5-1 ATS picking Michigan games this year. Iowa 31, Michigan 21
Best Bet—HAWAII +8 over Nevada
Nevada has only covered one of its last seven trips to Aloha Stadium, and the home team has covered seven of the last nine in the series. Hawaii is coming off one of its biggest road wins in years, rolling at Fresno State , 49-27, last week and has momentum. On the other hand, the Wolfpack have failed to cover their last two games since entering the top 25 for the first time since 1948. They’re clearly feeling the pressure of that rare national ranking. I’m calling for the outright upset here. Hawaii 43, Nevada 37
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