SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Last week: 5-6
Overall: 21-22
Best Bets: 2-2
Home team is in all CAPS and odds based on opening lines.
N.C. STATE +5 over Virginia Tech
Who would’ve guessed before the season started that the Wolfpack would be the ranked team heading into this matchup and not Virginia Tech? Seven of the last eight in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Hokies are playing their second straight road game. N.C. State 27, Virginia Tech 24
MICHIGAN STATE +2 over Wisconsin
Spartans should get a boost from the “return” of Coach Mark Dantonio, and are out for revenge after last year’s loss in Madison. Badgers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten road games overall and only 4-8 ATS as a favorite. MSU has won eight of the last 10 in this series played at East Lansing. Michigan State 28, Wisconsin 26
Texas Tech -8.5 over IOWA STATE
Cyclones offense is just too anemic to keep up in this matchup, and they don’t generate enough of a pass rush to pressure the Texas Tech offense. This is the first Big 12 road game for Texas Tech Coach Tommy Tuberville, who was one of the best road coaches in the SEC at Auburn. Texas Tech 28, Iowa State 17
Florida +9 over ALABAMA
Urban Meyer is 8-2 against top five teams, and is 7-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach going back to 2003. Gators also have the revenge factor from last season’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, and Alabama is coming off a tough, physical game at Arkansas last week. Underdog has covered six of the last eight in this series, including Alabama’s win in last year’s SEC Championship Game. Last time a young Florida team faced #1 on the road they covered and nearly pulled the upset at LSU in 2007. Alabama 24, Florida 20
CLEMSON +3 over Miami, Fla.
Classic sandwich game here for the U., which is coming off an impressive win at Pittsburgh but has its annual rivalry game with Florida State on deck. I love taking home underdogs coming off bye weeks, and Clemson has won the last three in this series and also has the steadier quarterback. Tigers are and impressive12-3 as an underdog ATS since 2005, while Hurricanes are just 10-18 as a favorite under Randy Shannon. Clemson 21, Miami 20
INDIANA +13.5 over Michigan
Three things heavily favor the Hoosiers here. First, the Wolverines haven’t won a Big Ten road game played outdoors since Michigan State in 2007. Second, Michigan’s top two tailbacks are out and that leaves Vincent Smith – who is still recovering from an ACL injury – and unproven backups Stephen Hopkins and Michael Cox to carry the load. Third, this is a huge revenge game for Indiana, who believes they should’ve won at the Big House last year. So far I am 4-0 picking Michigan ATS this season. Michigan 38, Indiana 34
Stanford-OREGON over 65.5
These two have gone over the total in the last five meetings, so don’t mess with a streak. Seven of Stanford’s last nine games have gone over as have nine of the Ducks’ last 11, including 12 of their last 16 Pac-10 games. Oregon 38, Stanford 31
Tennessee-LSU under 42.5
The total has gone under in nine of LSU’s last 10 home games, and neither team here has an explosive offense. Tigers are also a different team in home afternoon games under Les Miles, going just 5-4. I don’t expect much from Vols’ young and lacking explosiveness offense. LSU 27, Tennessee 7
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -15.5 over Ball State
Chippewas have covered 17 of their last 21 at home, five straight, and four of the last five in this series. I got an up close look at Ball State last week and they’re flat out terrible. Central Michigan 31, Ball State 13
Best Bet—IOWA -7 over Penn State
Hawkeyes are simply the more talented and physical team here. Iowa has won seven of the last in this series and owns the top-ranked defense in the country facing a true freshman quarterback on the road. Nittany Lions are just 2-6 ATS as a road underdog since 2006, Iowa is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less, and the Hawkeyes have covered eight of the last 10 meetings. Iowa 27, Penn State 13
Overall: 21-22
Best Bets: 2-2
Home team is in all CAPS and odds based on opening lines.
N.C. STATE +5 over Virginia Tech
Who would’ve guessed before the season started that the Wolfpack would be the ranked team heading into this matchup and not Virginia Tech? Seven of the last eight in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Hokies are playing their second straight road game. N.C. State 27, Virginia Tech 24
MICHIGAN STATE +2 over Wisconsin
Spartans should get a boost from the “return” of Coach Mark Dantonio, and are out for revenge after last year’s loss in Madison. Badgers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten road games overall and only 4-8 ATS as a favorite. MSU has won eight of the last 10 in this series played at East Lansing. Michigan State 28, Wisconsin 26
Texas Tech -8.5 over IOWA STATE
Cyclones offense is just too anemic to keep up in this matchup, and they don’t generate enough of a pass rush to pressure the Texas Tech offense. This is the first Big 12 road game for Texas Tech Coach Tommy Tuberville, who was one of the best road coaches in the SEC at Auburn. Texas Tech 28, Iowa State 17
Florida +9 over ALABAMA
Urban Meyer is 8-2 against top five teams, and is 7-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach going back to 2003. Gators also have the revenge factor from last season’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, and Alabama is coming off a tough, physical game at Arkansas last week. Underdog has covered six of the last eight in this series, including Alabama’s win in last year’s SEC Championship Game. Last time a young Florida team faced #1 on the road they covered and nearly pulled the upset at LSU in 2007. Alabama 24, Florida 20
CLEMSON +3 over Miami, Fla.
Classic sandwich game here for the U., which is coming off an impressive win at Pittsburgh but has its annual rivalry game with Florida State on deck. I love taking home underdogs coming off bye weeks, and Clemson has won the last three in this series and also has the steadier quarterback. Tigers are and impressive12-3 as an underdog ATS since 2005, while Hurricanes are just 10-18 as a favorite under Randy Shannon. Clemson 21, Miami 20
INDIANA +13.5 over Michigan
Three things heavily favor the Hoosiers here. First, the Wolverines haven’t won a Big Ten road game played outdoors since Michigan State in 2007. Second, Michigan’s top two tailbacks are out and that leaves Vincent Smith – who is still recovering from an ACL injury – and unproven backups Stephen Hopkins and Michael Cox to carry the load. Third, this is a huge revenge game for Indiana, who believes they should’ve won at the Big House last year. So far I am 4-0 picking Michigan ATS this season. Michigan 38, Indiana 34
Stanford-OREGON over 65.5
These two have gone over the total in the last five meetings, so don’t mess with a streak. Seven of Stanford’s last nine games have gone over as have nine of the Ducks’ last 11, including 12 of their last 16 Pac-10 games. Oregon 38, Stanford 31
Tennessee-LSU under 42.5
The total has gone under in nine of LSU’s last 10 home games, and neither team here has an explosive offense. Tigers are also a different team in home afternoon games under Les Miles, going just 5-4. I don’t expect much from Vols’ young and lacking explosiveness offense. LSU 27, Tennessee 7
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -15.5 over Ball State
Chippewas have covered 17 of their last 21 at home, five straight, and four of the last five in this series. I got an up close look at Ball State last week and they’re flat out terrible. Central Michigan 31, Ball State 13
Best Bet—IOWA -7 over Penn State
Hawkeyes are simply the more talented and physical team here. Iowa has won seven of the last in this series and owns the top-ranked defense in the country facing a true freshman quarterback on the road. Nittany Lions are just 2-6 ATS as a road underdog since 2006, Iowa is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less, and the Hawkeyes have covered eight of the last 10 meetings. Iowa 27, Penn State 13