SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 2
Overall Record: 4-6 (40% winners)
Best Bets: 1-0 (100%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Ball State-CLEMSON over 62.5
Tigers should get a boost on offense from the return of All-American Sammy Watkins, and the last six Ball State games have gone over the total. Clemson 48, Ball State 21
Florida-TEXAS A&M under 53
Aggies are playing their first game with a new coach, new offense, and new quarterback without last week’s tune-up versus Louisiana Tech, which was postponed by Hurricane Isaac. On the other side of the ball the Gators have one of the most talented defenses in the country, but a pretty pedestrian offense. Florida 21, Texas A&M 17
Air Force-MICHIGAN under 60.5
The Wolverines are beat up and despite this being the home opener, it will probably take some time to get going in this game. Throw in just three days to prepare for the Falcons’ triple-option attack, and I expect a sluggish start. I am 1-0 against the spread in Michigan this season. Michigan 35, Air Force 17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +24 over Michigan State
This is the classic sandwich game for Sparty, coming off a tough opener against Boise State with rival Notre Dame on deck next week. Throw in the sleepy little hamlet of Mount Pleasant as the site of the game, and former Spartan player/assistant coach Dan Enos coaching the Chippewas, and this smells like a sleepwalk. Michigan State 31, Central Michigan 14
Iowa State +4 over IOWA
Don’t mess with a streak. Iowa State Coach Paul Rhoads has covered his last 6 games as an underdog, and the Hawkeyes have covered just 3 of their last 10 games overall. Oh, and the Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Iowa State 35, Iowa 28
OREGON STATE +11 over Wisconsin
Badgers looked shaky last week against Northern Iowa, and this is a must-win for Oregon State Coach Mike Riley, who is on the hot seat. This is a case where not playing a game yet is a plus for the Beavers, because they’ve got several young players Wisconsin doesn’t have much film on. Plus, this is a revenge spot for Oregon State after it was shut out in Madison last year. Oregon State 28, Wisconsin 24
UCLA +6 over Nebraska
Taylor Martinez looked great last week in the opener, but doing it on the road against a hostile crowd with no Rex Burkhead is an entirely different animal. This game is a benchmark for new UCLA Coach Jim Mora, Jr., who has the kind of mobile quarterback that gave the black shirts fits a year ago. This is Mora’s home debut. And the Huskers are a different team away from Lincoln. The only away game they covered last season was at Minnesota. UCLA 27, Nebraska 24
NORTHWESTERN +1.5 over Vanderbilt
One of the worst things for a coach is to have your team celebrated for a loss, and one of the best things for a coach is to have your team criticized for a win. The Commodores should’ve beaten South Carolina last week, and Northwestern should have never let Syracuse back in the game. I think the Wildcats have the mental edge here. Northwestern 31, Vanderbilt 24
Oklahoma State-ARIZONA under 70
Rich Rodriguez’s teams always struggle to implement his system in the first year, and even though Arizona beat Toledo last week it only scored 24 points in a game that went to overtime. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are bringing a true freshman quarterback into a hostile environment for his first road start. Oklahoma State 31, Arizona 27
MISSOURI +3.5 over Georgia
Dawgs are still without two suspended defensive starters, and two more starters could be out due to injury. Missouri has this game circled as its SEC debut, and unlike fellow SEC rookie Texas A&M, the Tigers have an experienced, play-making quarterback to lean on. Georgia is only 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Missouri 28, Georgia 27
Best Bet—Southern California-SYRACUSE over 58.5
This is a Heisman showcase in front of the east coast media for Matt Barkley. The Orange’s defense is anemic, but USC is still battling injuries and depth issues on that side of the ball, too. Syracuse will put up some points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trojans hit the total by themselves. USC 52, Syracuse 24
Overall Record: 4-6 (40% winners)
Best Bets: 1-0 (100%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Ball State-CLEMSON over 62.5
Tigers should get a boost on offense from the return of All-American Sammy Watkins, and the last six Ball State games have gone over the total. Clemson 48, Ball State 21
Florida-TEXAS A&M under 53
Aggies are playing their first game with a new coach, new offense, and new quarterback without last week’s tune-up versus Louisiana Tech, which was postponed by Hurricane Isaac. On the other side of the ball the Gators have one of the most talented defenses in the country, but a pretty pedestrian offense. Florida 21, Texas A&M 17
Air Force-MICHIGAN under 60.5
The Wolverines are beat up and despite this being the home opener, it will probably take some time to get going in this game. Throw in just three days to prepare for the Falcons’ triple-option attack, and I expect a sluggish start. I am 1-0 against the spread in Michigan this season. Michigan 35, Air Force 17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +24 over Michigan State
This is the classic sandwich game for Sparty, coming off a tough opener against Boise State with rival Notre Dame on deck next week. Throw in the sleepy little hamlet of Mount Pleasant as the site of the game, and former Spartan player/assistant coach Dan Enos coaching the Chippewas, and this smells like a sleepwalk. Michigan State 31, Central Michigan 14
Iowa State +4 over IOWA
Don’t mess with a streak. Iowa State Coach Paul Rhoads has covered his last 6 games as an underdog, and the Hawkeyes have covered just 3 of their last 10 games overall. Oh, and the Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Iowa State 35, Iowa 28
OREGON STATE +11 over Wisconsin
Badgers looked shaky last week against Northern Iowa, and this is a must-win for Oregon State Coach Mike Riley, who is on the hot seat. This is a case where not playing a game yet is a plus for the Beavers, because they’ve got several young players Wisconsin doesn’t have much film on. Plus, this is a revenge spot for Oregon State after it was shut out in Madison last year. Oregon State 28, Wisconsin 24
UCLA +6 over Nebraska
Taylor Martinez looked great last week in the opener, but doing it on the road against a hostile crowd with no Rex Burkhead is an entirely different animal. This game is a benchmark for new UCLA Coach Jim Mora, Jr., who has the kind of mobile quarterback that gave the black shirts fits a year ago. This is Mora’s home debut. And the Huskers are a different team away from Lincoln. The only away game they covered last season was at Minnesota. UCLA 27, Nebraska 24
NORTHWESTERN +1.5 over Vanderbilt
One of the worst things for a coach is to have your team celebrated for a loss, and one of the best things for a coach is to have your team criticized for a win. The Commodores should’ve beaten South Carolina last week, and Northwestern should have never let Syracuse back in the game. I think the Wildcats have the mental edge here. Northwestern 31, Vanderbilt 24
Oklahoma State-ARIZONA under 70
Rich Rodriguez’s teams always struggle to implement his system in the first year, and even though Arizona beat Toledo last week it only scored 24 points in a game that went to overtime. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are bringing a true freshman quarterback into a hostile environment for his first road start. Oklahoma State 31, Arizona 27
MISSOURI +3.5 over Georgia
Dawgs are still without two suspended defensive starters, and two more starters could be out due to injury. Missouri has this game circled as its SEC debut, and unlike fellow SEC rookie Texas A&M, the Tigers have an experienced, play-making quarterback to lean on. Georgia is only 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Missouri 28, Georgia 27
Best Bet—Southern California-SYRACUSE over 58.5
This is a Heisman showcase in front of the east coast media for Matt Barkley. The Orange’s defense is anemic, but USC is still battling injuries and depth issues on that side of the ball, too. Syracuse will put up some points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trojans hit the total by themselves. USC 52, Syracuse 24
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