Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks - Week 1

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SteveDeace

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Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 1

Last year I had my first losing season ever, so we’ve got to get our mojo back. Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.

MICHIGAN -14 over Western Michigan
The Wolverines are at home, fired up to play for a new head coach, are the superior team up front on both sides of the line of the scrimmage, and have the best player on the field in Denard Robinson. Michigan 38, Western Michigan 17

BYU -1 over Mississippi
The Cougars are fired up about their new independent status and the national stage that comes with it. Meanwhile, the Rebels have suspended their top quarterback and a third of their roster is making its collegiate debut. BYU 27, Mississippi 21

OKLAHOMA-Tulsa over 64.5
The Sooners may not punt in this game, but without their top two defensive players look for experienced and effective Tulsa quarterback G. J. Kinnie to put up some numbers as well. Oklahoma 49, Tulsa 21

GEORGIA-Boise State over 51.5
Two of the top quarterbacks in the country, and each team have concerns about being able to pressure the other’s quarterback as well. Plus, the game is being played indoors at the Georgia Dome in ideal conditions. Georgia 31, Boise State 28

OHIO STATE-Akron under 48
The Zips have one of the worst offenses in college football. Ohio State announced even more suspensions this week to go along with the ones we already knew about, and is unsettled at quarterback. Previous two meetings in the series went way under the total. Ohio State 31, Akron 7

OKLAHOMA STATE-Louisiana-Lafayette over 64.5
40 of the Cowboys’ last 55 home games have gone over the total. They’re breaking in a very young defense, and might score 64 points in this game by themselves given how explosive and experienced their offense is. Oklahoma State 56, Louisiana-Lafayette 17

BEST BET—BAYLOR +10 over TCU
Big revenge game for the Bears, who were crushed in this matchup on the road a year ago. Now they have the more experienced squad and the best player on the field in quarterback Robert Griffin. TCU is young and on the road with a new quarterback. Baylor 28, TCU 24
 
Baylor is all the way down to +3.5, tons of money going the bears way- you'd hav to tease the line to get the original amount. Over or under here deace?
 
Deace,Glad to see your picking again, but could you please tell us what you are using to get your lines from. EDIT-I SEE ITS USA TODAY I only looked at the Baylor line since hawkfaninTx brought it up. According to ScoresandOdds.com that line was +6 on 8/22 and +4.5 on 8/31. It is currently +3.5. Thats a long ways from +10, and I havent seen that number anywhere. I know lines change but could you please tell us what your using for a reference.

Also, I may as well toss it out before Duff does. How are you handling ties this year?
I would assume a push is a push, and not marked as a win.
 
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Are pushes still going in the win column this year? Also why put up your picks on a Friday using the opening line? Makes zero sense. Use the current line....
 
AHawk1 said:
Deace,Glad to see your picking again, but could you please tell us what you are using to get your lines from. I only looked at the Baylor line since hawkfaninTx brought it up. According to ScoresandOdds.com that line was +6 on 8/22 and +4.5 on 8/31. It is currently +3.5. Thats a long ways from +10, and I havent seen that number anywhere. I know lines change but could you please tell us what your using for a reference.

Also, I may as well toss it out before Duff does. How are you handling ties this year?
I would assume a push is a push, and not marked as a win.
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Yeah that TCU-Baylor game opened up at TCU -6 almost across the board, BYU-Ole Miss also opened at BYU -2.5, it's a lot easier to win with made up spreads though, that's one way to get your mojo back I guess.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
Yeah that TCU-Baylor game opened up at TCU -6 almost across the board, BYU-Ole Miss also opened at BYU -2.5, it's a lot easier to win with made up spreads though, that's one way to get your mojo back I guess.
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Ok, I finally found where the TCU-Baylor game is TCU-10, on 5dimes on 8/05/11, so you're using a spread that's almost a month old to make your picks, why not just use the current lines?
 
JonDMiller said:
The opening line is what the boiler room guys think about the games before the money comes in.
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Well, they also have an idea of how the money is going to come in, and how they want it to come in. So, the equation isn't totally about just the game result.
 
Unless you guys are taking his picks and running to Vegas with them what difference does it matter what line he uses?
 
CAARHawk said:
Well, they also have an idea of how the money is going to come in, and how they want it to come in. So, the equation isn't totally about just the game result.
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The whole point is to get equal betting on both sides so the house comes up even on the action but makes their money on the vig.

No decent bookie sets the line trying to win the actually betting money.
 
FAQs

There are a million line sources out there, and they change throughout the week given the action at each place. That's why I've always played the standard opening line set by the main line setters that is linked on the USA Today page I provided a link to.

I also play the opening lines because that is the closest to the original source of what Vegas thinks, and I'm playing against the oddsmakers and not the public action on the game that changes throughout the week. I'm doing it that way because I am not putting money on the games, but rather matching wits with the Vegas oddsmakers themselves -- who are the best in the business. If I were putting money on these games obviously I'd have to play against the public reaction as well. However, let's say I post my picks on Wednesday night and the line is a certain number. You read the post 48 hours later on Friday night, and the late money moves the number some more creating the same problem for all the way up until kickoff.

See my point? Since I'm in the prediction and not gambling business, I'm playing the original line and not the public reaction to the line. I used to watch guys like Jim Feist and Wayne Allyn Root back in the day early Saturday mornings make their picks. Except they tape those shows on Wednesday and Thursday, and by the time we got to Saturday the lines were already changed again.

Now, there are two games this week I stayed away from because the line has moves so much based on information that would obviously change what Vegas thinks and not just the public. Those games are Miami-Maryland and Oregon-LSU. It wouldn't be fair for me to play the opening lines there because new information emerged that dramatically impacts the status of those games after the line was set, so in the interest of fairness I left those games off the board. Normally, Vegas will wait to post an opening line on games with rumored injuries or suspensions just in case.

Since I'm picking games and not betting them, I also count pushes as wins because I'm not paying the juice and need all the help I can get. :) Plus, as an American I don't like ties. Ties are for socialists and soccer fans.

I hope that clears things up. In the future, folks can just refer to this post if they have any questions. Thanks!
 
fufred said:
Are pushes still going in the win column this year? Also why put up your picks on a Friday using the opening line? Makes zero sense. Use the current line....
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Keep it up Fisher - one of the few times I enjoy your posts - other than the chess references! :)
 
Steve, I think everything you said is fair except the ties. Since you said you are in the prediction business, tying doesn't count as a win (vig or no vig). If you despise the X-Y-Z, ties included record, then I think you should use chess scoring and give yourself a 0.5 in the win and 0.5 in the loss for a tie.
 
You have two problems here Steve. The first is your Vegas odds makers don't set the lines based on who they think will win the game, rather they set them on what they think the public will think and how the public will bet a particular game. No matter how you try to spin it, you are still "matching wits" against the public, only in your case you are doing so several days after the line was set, and with the additional benefit of seeing how the line moves after people (many of who know a **** load more about football than you) lay money.

The second problem you have is you are a liar and suck at math.

Actually that might be three problems, either that or I also suck at math.
 
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Here we go, I'll take a shot at this too.

Minnesota +24 over USC

UCLA +3 over Houston

UL-Monroe +29 over Florida St.

Indiana -6 over Ball St.

Western Michigan +14 over Michigan

Colorado St -6 over New Mexico
 
DuffMan said:
You have two problems here Steve. The first is your Vegas odds makers don't set the lines based on who they think will win the game, rather they set them on what they think the public will think and how the public will bet a particular game. No matter how you try to spin it, you are still "matching wits" against the public, only in your case you are doing so several days after the line was set, and with the additional benefit of seeing how the line moves after people (many of you know a **** load more about football than you) lay money.

The second problem you have is you are a liar and suck at math.

Actually that might be three problems, either that or I also suck at math.
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The next to last sentence gets a 5/5 rating.
 
Ties as wins. (shakes head)

Steve, come on bro, that is horrible reasoning for scoring a tie as a win. Play fair or I'm sure you will hear about it all year. I would expect to if I pulled that same shart.
 
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