Star Ranking and NFL Draft

[MelroseHawkins]

Kadyn Proctor is coming to Iowa and he was a 5* recruit, one of a few coming out of high schools in Iowa. I heard Mark Rogers state and interesting stat on a Voice of College Football podcast. He stated that in the last 5 yrs, the draft rate for 5* players was 63%.
- 5* players are 15 times more likely to end up getting drafted than 2*, 3*, and lower players.
- 4* recruits are 5.2 times more likely to get drafted over 2 & 3* players.
- 3* have a 1.3 times chance so the percentage is graduated down from the top star players.

This all proves that the stars do matter and prove the players have a higher ceiling. There has been a debate in the Proctor thread debating Proctor's ability vs Wirf's at the same point in each's development. The stats above prove this is a big get for Iowa and a pretty big deal, and if Wirf's is the bar to use to measure, that is not bad AT ALL!

We all know Iowa can develop players and do a good job of doing that at certain positions, but if they can start with 4* and some 5* players, that can only help proven by this data. Also, the blue blood teams that get the most 5 & 4* players is why they can reload on a yearly basis faster, and plug and play players more than teams in Iowa's situation.

On3 data reveals 5-star recruits have 63% draft rate

Data collected by On3 from the past five NFL drafts show that the major recruiting media companies have been getting it right when handing out stars.

www.on3.com

 

[CP87]

Kadyn Proctor is coming to Iowa and he was a 5* recruit, one of a few coming out of high schools in Iowa. I heard Mark Rogers state and interesting stat on a Voice of College Football podcast. He stated that in the last 5 yrs, the draft rate for 5* players was 63%.
- 5* players are 15 times more likely to end up getting drafted than 2*, 3*, and lower players.
- 4* recruits are 5.2 times more likely to get drafted over 2 & 3* players.
- 3* have a 1.3 times chance so the percentage is graduated down from the top star players.

This all proves that the stars do matter and prove the players have a higher ceiling. There has been a debate in the Proctor thread debating Proctor's ability vs Wirf's at the same point in each's development. The stats above prove this is a big get for Iowa and a pretty big deal, and if Wirf's is the bar to use to measure, that is not bad AT ALL!

We all know Iowa can develop players and do a good job of doing that at certain positions, but if they can start with 4* and some 5* players, that can only help proven by this data. Also, the blue blood teams that get the most 5 & 4* players is why they can reload on a yearly basis faster, and plug and play players more than teams in Iowa's situation.

On3 data reveals 5-star recruits have 63% draft rate

Data collected by On3 from the past five NFL drafts show that the major recruiting media companies have been getting it right when handing out stars.

www.on3.com

A year or two ago, I put a little time into looking into "hit rate" for 5* OL vs. other positions. I was thinking that those 5* big dudes have to pan out at a high level, especially compared to positions that can be difficult to evaluate (e.g. QB). Turns out, I had it exactly backwards. 5* OL had the lowest hit rate for NFL draft of all positions, and 5* QB had the highest hit rate. Not sure why that is, perhaps just the grind and injury potential when you are a massive human being constantly smashing your body into other massive human beings?

Anyhow, I agree with you that this is a big deal, just thought I would share that a 5* OL is a great bet, but not quite as great as 5* at some other positions. If we could trade KP straight up for Marvin Harrison, Jr., it would probably be a good trade.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

A year or two ago, I put a little time into looking into "hit rate" for 5* OL vs. other positions. I was thinking that those 5* big dudes have to pan out at a high level, especially compared to positions that can be difficult to evaluate (e.g. QB). Turns out, I had it exactly backwards. 5* OL had the lowest hit rate for NFL draft of all positions, and 5* QB had the highest hit rate. Not sure why that is, perhaps just the grind and injury potential when you are a massive human being constantly smashing your body into other massive human beings?

Anyhow, I agree with you that this is a big deal, just thought I would share that a 5* OL is a great bet, but not quite as great as 5* at some other positions. If we could trade KP straight up for Marvin Harrison, Jr., it would probably be a good trade.

I think you really have to look at the ceiling of these players. I heard a Div 1 coach once state that they really look if the player fits the frame size and weight to build from. They said if it's the right player, they'll make a football player out of him, but want to start with the size foundation first. This is why guys like Proctor or so highly rated coming out if they are that size. The ceiling.

I did hear an interesting point on a Washed Out Walkons podcast (sorry Rob!) a couple months ago that made some sense. One of them commented they'd rather recruit a player that may be under weight coming out that they can add good weight and develop opposed to many players that are playing at a heavy weight that they have to take back off and build up. The latter players might be at their ceiling. The smaller (wt wise) player coming in with height can be developed and hopefully maintain their athleticism. Something to that point they were making.