Stanley NFL Draft Stock

[CyberJJJ]

Will be an interesting year to see how Stanley develops. Here are a few things I have read (not an complete list by any means):

Athlon: Rates him #22 Starting QB: Stanley enters his third year as the starter with a chance to etch his name into Iowa’s record book. The Wisconsin native set a new school record with 52 touchdown passes over a two-year span and needs 23 more to pass Chuck Long for the most in a career. Stanley has passed for 5,351 yards over the last three seasons and improved his completion percentage to 59.3 (up from 55.8) last fall. The senior should help Iowa push for the Big Ten West Division title in 2019. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-starting-quarterback-rankings-2019

PFF: Rates him #50 Starting QB: Lower than some would expect, Stanley just doesn’t have the PFF grades that warrant the kind of hype he’s received in terms of the 2020 NFL Draft. He finished last year with a career-low grade despite throwing for 26 touchdowns for the second consecutive season. In a clearer example of his play on the field, Stanley actually had eight more touchdowns than big-time throws and five fewer interceptions than he had turnover-worthy plays. Still, Stanley wins more often than not and should once again keep the Hawkeyes in contention for the Big Ten once again. https://www.pff.com/news/college-pff-rankings-starting-quarterback-rankings-for-2019

Watch Stadium: Doesn't have him ranked in top 15 they show, but was one of an additional 11 considered, so must be in top 26 returning QBs: https://watchstadium.com/news/ranki...-quarterbacks-in-college-football-07-10-2019/

College Football News: Doesn't have him in the top 50 returning QBs https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/08/college-fantasy-football-rankings-2019-quarterbacks

Sporting News doesn't have him ranked in the 40 they show: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/fan...loa-trevor-lawrence/pamoii9yi73d14vi5xcvzh39z

247 Sports: Ranks him 24th best returning QB: no commentary on Stanley provided ttps://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Trevor-Lawrence-Tua-Tagovailoa-Jalen-Hurts-college-football-quarterbacks-2019-Alabama-Oklahoma-Georgia-131124138/#131124138_1

Saturday Down South: Ranks him 18th: In terms of guys you’d feel comfortable giving the ball to, a third-year starter with 52 career touchdown passes would be a solid option. Stanley has a tendency to get a little too amped up and throw it through a wall, but his accuracy did improve in 2018. The tools are there. The consistency is what’s separating him from being in the top 10 on this list. In fact, if Stanley could replicate the Ohio State performance just a handful of times, he’d be talked about as one of the nation’s best. https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/top-25-quarterbacks-2019/

Yahoo Sports: Has him ranked #22: https://sports.yahoo.com/top-50-college-quarterbacks-2019-045030260.html: some draft analysis when you click on his name on that site: https://www.rotoworld.com/college-f...9509/nathan-stanley?cid=Yahoo&partner=ya4nbcs

 

[InGoodCo]

Some years are just dead years for QBs in the NFL draft and this is probably one of them. The kid might make a quantum leap, but I just don't seem being able to hit NFL sized windows consistently. That's really what it comes down to in the NFL. The window is basically barely larger than the ball on a lot of throws and Stanley sometimes shows he has that degree of accuracy, but probably not often enough for NFL scouts to think he is a credible NFL starter. He's also had major problems with dealing with pressure. The kid takes a lot of heat because our line has been incapable of blocking some 3-4 schemes the past few years, but he has rarely done himself any favors against those sets and if you can't make a quick read on a 3-4 with one guy dropping and an unknown guy rushing, you simply cannot play in the NFL. The 15 or so guys in the world who can competently play NFL QB have an ungodly ability to "feel" pressure and make 3 reads almost simultaneously while keeping tabs on the front 6 or 7. I'm just not seeing it with Stanley.

And that's pretty spot on and I wouldn't disagree with much of that. But I seriously LOL at the "over throws" WR's on deep balls take. Every QB does that. In the list of things that a QB can possibly do and me be concerned about, over throwing WR's on deep balls is probably at the bottom of the list. Is he great at it? No, but I would rather he over throw then intercept. His accuracy, ball placement and pocket presence are another story and all need work.

 

[InGoodCo]

All errant throws can lead to INT's. Especially overthrows. If you're overthrowing a receiver on a deep route that's probably better than risking a turnover. But overthrows on all other routes can easily lead to INT's. Tyler Sash used to sit back there in deep center field and feast on opposing QB's overthrows.

I should have said "over throw the deep ball" ... my bad, put it where only his guy has a shot or no one has a shot...better than turnover.

 

[okeefe4prez]

And that's pretty spot on and I wouldn't disagree with much of that. But I seriously LOL at the "over throws" WR's on deep balls take. Every QB does that. In the list of things that a QB can possibly do and me be concerned about, over throwing WR's on deep balls is probably at the bottom of the list. Is he great at it? No, but I would rather he over throw then intercept. His accuracy, ball placement and pocket presence are another story and all need work.

Yep. The kid is a good college QB, but I just don't see him buzzing it on a line into a 20 inch back shoulder window 25 yards from the LOS with a 320 pound lineman an inch from him. That is what the NFL is looking for. The overthrows are not what will sink him in the NFL. CJB was the closest we have had to that in the KF era and Stanley just isn't there I don't think.

 

[99topdawg]

I don't have an answer to this, but I always wonder when watching games, if Stanley overthrowing deep balls, for example, is more of a coaching point that tells him, "if it's there, hit it, if there's a doubt, throw it away and we'll win it on another play/drive and on defense". Again, I have no idea if this is the case, but I don't feel like he underthrows receivers very often, which leads me to this line of thinking.

 

[ssckelley]

Stanley is an NFL QB this time next year. Book it. However there is no way to tell yet if he is a quality NFL QB. Up to now it looks like back up QB with upside. He has a ways to go before he looks like a NFL starter.

Sure, he might hold a clipboard for a NFL team next year. I have a lot of doubts that he will ever be a NFL starter.

 

[mopkins]

I don't have an answer to this, but I always wonder when watching games, if Stanley overthrowing deep balls, for example, is more of a coaching point that tells him, "if it's there, hit it, if there's a doubt, throw it away and we'll win it on another play/drive and on defense". Again, I have no idea if this is the case, but I don't feel like he underthrows receivers very often, which leads me to this line of thinking.

Its probably a number of things. Excitement, WR's not getting enough separation, Stanley afraid of getting intercepted, etc. Hard to simulate a lot of that stuff in practice.

It also can't help that Stanley started his collegiate career under Greg Davis.

 

[revkev73]

I get the running game and receivers "causing Stanley to look worse than he might have been", but the punting game? I'm not sure how a punter, who is sent on to the field after the offense fails to get a first down can be blamed for how the QB looks. I think you could argue that an offense's inability to move the chains impacts a punter, but not sure how it works the other way around.

Short fields are always easier to the QB and offense, Junior high punting tough on our QB with limited receiver options

 

[mopkins]

Sure, he might hold a clipboard for a NFL team next year. I have a lot of doubts that he will ever be a NFL starter.

I think he could go in a lot of different directions in the NFL. He's definitely got the size and the brain. I'm still not sure on the arm or the instincts. Would anyone really be shocked to see the Patriots grab him in the 3rd round and stash him behind Brady for a couple years? I sure wouldn't.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

He's a 5th or 6th round pick right now.

 

[InGoodCo]

He's a 5th or 6th round pick right now.

Not according to the mocks, but those are basically done by guys like you and me that have no clue anyways, so IMO you might be closer to where he actually goes, we just don't know and either do these mocks. The honest truth is NO ONE knows except for the NFL guys, and if ya think they are gonna tip their hand ahead of time, you're wrong. I know this, he plays in a pro-style system, he'll have 3 years of starting under his belt in one of the toughest conferences in college football. Iowa's system downloads a lot of info into their QB's. NFL coaches are going to like that. He by all accounts is a good kid who doesn't get into trouble, they are going to like that. They are going to like his arm strength. They are going to like his size. He's already one of only 5 quarterbacks ever in the history of the B1G to throw for 25+ TD's in back to back seasons. He has a lot more to like then not like for the NFL IMO as things stand. A bad season I guess could put quite the kabosh on it.

 

[N8theGr8]

All of this fits right about where I'd expect. Watching him hit some of those deep throws with perfect timing and in a spot where only his guy can get it gives you a feeling that he's got all the potential in the world. Combine that with his absurd TD/INT ratio and you understand where some of the NFL hype comes from. But, the thing people love about QBs with a big arm is their ability to turn it on when it matters. It gives you a better chance to hit those crunch time home runs or step on a teams throat when they're down. With a bit more confidence and a few more deep throws hit in critical situations, Stanley could be a 1st round draft pick. Just imagine last season if he hits that a wide open Hockenson and puts us up 21-7 before half or if late in that same game he avoids the goal line pick. That gets us the win and momentum into the Purdue and Northwestern games. All of a sudden we're West champs and he's likely starting for an NFL team this year instead of back for his senior season. I think that's how close he is. One or two more throws per game.

That said, I have zero experience as a QB and can only imagine how much pressure there is. So from an outside perspective, it appears easy, but perhaps it's exponentially more difficult to take that last step of controlling the game in those situations. I'm damn excited to see if he can do it though.

 

[okeefe4prez]

That said, I have zero experience as a QB and can only imagine how much pressure there is.

The fact that there are probably fewer than a dozen really good QBs in the NFL shows how hard it is. Hitting a baseball thrown by a MLB pitcher is probably the single hardest thing to do in sports, but QBing a team to a game winning drive in the NFL can't be far behind.

 

[ssckelley]

I think he could go in a lot of different directions in the NFL. He's definitely got the size and the brain. I'm still not sure on the arm or the instincts. Would anyone really be shocked to see the Patriots grab him in the 3rd round and stash him behind Brady for a couple years? I sure wouldn't.

As of right now I don't think he even gets drafted, he will have to put up one hell of a season to get consideration.

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

Obviously, this is all speculation at this point.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Stanley can do this year with NFL-quality tackles and an improved receiving corp (at least on the perimeter).

That said, this conversation reminds me a lot of statements made about Brett Favre coming out - "Strong arm but no touch, lacks accuracy, gunslinger without discipline," etc., etc. Atlanta was more than willing to trade him for a #1 pick. He was quickly developing a reputation as an undisciplined party boy.

What Favre had that Stanley hasn't demonstrated thus far though was a force of will. Those intangibles. He was the kind of player that could will his team to victory. I'm not sure that's part of Nate's make-up. Super nice guy - studious, reserved. The kind of guy you'd want your daughter to marry, but those traits don't always translate to NFL success.

To succeed at the next level you either have to be a pure passer - Brees, Luck, Ryan. A savvy slinger - Mayfield, Newton. Or both - Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady. Hopefully, Nate takes that next step. This season depends upon him more than any other player on the roster.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

Not according to the mocks, but those are basically done by guys like you and me that have no clue anyways, so IMO you might be closer to where he actually goes, we just don't know and either do these mocks. The honest truth is NO ONE knows except for the NFL guys, and if ya think they are gonna tip their hand ahead of time, you're wrong. I know this, he plays in a pro-style system, he'll have 3 years of starting under his belt in one of the toughest conferences in college football. Iowa's system downloads a lot of info into their QB's. NFL coaches are going to like that. He by all accounts is a good kid who doesn't get into trouble, they are going to like that. They are going to like his arm strength. They are going to like his size. He's already one of only 5 quarterbacks ever in the history of the B1G to throw for 25+ TD's in back to back seasons. He has a lot more to like then not like for the NFL IMO as things stand. A bad season I guess could put quite the kabosh on it.

You're right about all of us not having a clue, me included. Just seems like Nate's footwork isn't great and, when the rush comes up the middle he doesn't do so well. The inaccuracy he shows at times is glaring. He can change minds on these things this season though.

Thought I heard Pro Football Focus, or some group like that, rated him the 51st best QB in college football this season.

 

[CP87]

I think I recall seeing that he was pretty bad when pressured last year, and he was pretty bad on his accuracy on downfield throws (sorry, don't have a link to share). He knows those #s as well as the critics. Hopefully he can improve.

If you watched kid's day scrimmage, it seemed like there was a lot of blitzing. We know we are going to face it a lot this year, might as well get used to it.

 

[mopkins]

As of right now I don't think he even gets drafted, he will have to put up one hell of a season to get consideration.

I think that's way off the mark. You're talking about a 3 year starter for a top 25 team who runs a pro-style offense. He's got great size and has a lot of the cookie cutter things NFL teams look for.

 

[kicker22]

Yep. The kid is a good college QB, but I just don't see him buzzing it on a line into a 20 inch back shoulder window 25 yards from the LOS with a 320 pound lineman an inch from him. That is what the NFL is looking for. The overthrows are not what will sink him in the NFL. CJB was the closest we have had to that in the KF era and Stanley just isn't there I don't think.

I think this is spot on. There's no shame being a good/very good college QB, which I think he may be when it's all said and done. However, we've seen great/elite college QB's not make NFL rosters or fizzle out. They're simply two completely different games. Fans need to accept that fact and appreciate them for what they can do at the collegiate level rather than project success as an NFL QB.

 

[InGoodCo]

His footwork and mobility are much bigger factors then his ability to throw the deep ball at Iowa in Iowa's offensive scheme. That's all I was saying. He has flaws. I would be shocked to see him go completely undrafted. It really IMO is wins and loses. Iowa wins 10 games this year he's likely a first rounder. The biggest knock on Nate is at times he's shrunk under the spotlight (I'd argue he's shined under it more times then he gets credit for too) and that he hasn't had that 1 breakout season where Iowa wins double digit games. He gets that and people are considering him one of the best to ever play here. A lot more than QB play goes into that type of season tho IMO