$$$—Sports Betting Thread—$$$

Fryowa said:
Clown fans are eating it up on Twitter that we’re the dogs.
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I remember Deace mentioning on a pod last year that the sharps were loving the Hawks. They had a great point differential, but there is still a national perception that they will play tight games and lose more as favorites than your average team. The spreads reflected the national perception, and the sharps were making hay off that.

As favorites last year, Iowa had a cover % of 78% (tied for 10th highest, 7-2 in covering in 9 games as favorites). In W/L, they were 8-1 as favorites (NW was the lone loss, which I believe was a double-digit spread). They were tied for the 10th highest cover % in the nation, and the only P5 programs above them with at least 9 games as favorites were Wash St. and Tex A&M. Going back through the new-Kirk era (starting in 2015), Iowa has the 3rd highest cover% among P5 schools with at least 20 games as favorites (Tex Tech and Wash St. just slightly above them). In terms of win% as a favorite over that span, Iowa is behind only Clemson, Alabama, Kansas St., and Oklahoma (among P5 schools favored at least 20 times). As long as we are bucking perceived trends, Iowa has the 13th highest over% in the nation among P5 programs in the new-Kirk era.

But as underdogs last year, the Hawks only beat the spread 1 time out of 4, and they won that game outright (bowl win vs. Miss St.). They lost their 3 regular season games in which they were dogs (Wisc, PSU, and Purdue), and didn't beat the spread in any. In the new-Kirk era, Iowa is actually in the bottom 3rd of the country in beating the spread as dogs (they are in the top third in winning outright as dogs).

FWIW, Iowa St. was 2-4 in covering the spread as favorites last year, but they were 6-0 W/L when favored. They were middle of the pack as underdogs (both ATS and W/L).

All of the above data from: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?range=yearly_since_2015&sc=is_fav
 
Regarding Hawks and national perception:

The local media covering the Hawks are really bullish this year. Of course they are biased, but I don't remember this much optimism (albeit guarded) in recent years.

I think nationally people see losing 4 starting DL, but locally we know that the DL will probably be as good or better.

Nationally they see losing 2 first-round TEs, but locally we hear the quiet confidence in the emerging RBs and WRs, as well as the returning and finally healthy TEs.

The perception is that Stanley cannot get it done in big moments (perception amplified by a few high-profile SNAFUs). But quietly, Stanley led a pass-first attack against one of the nation's toughest D's for a bowl win, which followed his gutsy 4th down conversion to set up the go-ahead FG vs. Nebraska.

And we forget, Stanely led a game-tying drive on the road vs. ISU in 2017, followed by throwing the game-winning TD in OT.

He led a go-ahead drive (culminating with a TD pass) in the 2nd half vs. Wisc in 2018.

He led 90% of a go-ahead TD drive on the road in the rain vs. PSU in 2018, and it would have been the go-ahead drive had Fant known the ball was snapped and run his route (not Fant's fault, TO should have been called).

Stanely led two 4th quarter TD drives vs. Purdue in 2018 to put the Hawks in the lead after they trailed by 12 in the second half on the road.

He has made high-profile mistakes, but the perception that he melts under pressure or is generally deficient is just not true. There is a reason he continues to be ranked high among the pro-prospect QBs. He needs more consistency. Will he find it in his senior year? I guess Vegas is betting no. I think many that are close to the team feel differently.
 
CP87 said:
I remember Deace mentioning on a pod last year that the sharps were loving the Hawks. They had a great point differential, but there is still a national perception that they will play tight games and lose more as favorites than your average team. The spreads reflected the national perception, and the sharps were making hay off that.

As favorites last year, Iowa had a cover % of 78% (tied for 10th highest, 7-2 in covering in 9 games as favorites). In W/L, they were 8-1 as favorites (NW was the lone loss, which I believe was a double-digit spread). They were tied for the 10th highest cover % in the nation, and the only P5 programs above them with at least 9 games as favorites were Wash St. and Tex A&M. Going back through the new-Kirk era (starting in 2015), Iowa has the 3rd highest cover% among P5 schools with at least 20 games as favorites (Tex Tech and Wash St. just slightly above them). In terms of win% as a favorite over that span, Iowa is behind only Clemson, Alabama, Kansas St., and Oklahoma (among P5 schools favored at least 20 times). As long as we are bucking perceived trends, Iowa has the 13th highest over% in the nation among P5 programs in the new-Kirk era.

But as underdogs last year, the Hawks only beat the spread 1 time out of 4, and they won that game outright (bowl win vs. Miss St.). They lost their 3 regular season games in which they were dogs (Wisc, PSU, and Purdue), and didn't beat the spread in any. In the new-Kirk era, Iowa is actually in the bottom 3rd of the country in beating the spread as dogs (they are in the top third in winning outright as dogs).

FWIW, Iowa St. was 2-4 in covering the spread as favorites last year, but they were 6-0 W/L when favored. They were middle of the pack as underdogs (both ATS and W/L).

All of the above data from: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?range=yearly_since_2015&sc=is_fav
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Don’t disagree with anything you wrote, but the ISU game is a sucker bet either way. It’s one of those that’s only for both teams’ homer fans. With the odds that close it’s not a money maker unless you put some bigger cash down, and then, we’ll...you’re a sucker.
 
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Former Cub Andre Dawson was at the Isle Casino in Waterloo this morning for a ribbon cutting ceremony. Andre was also the first one to officially buy a ticket for sports betting, of course being that he is a Cubbie, it was a losing ticket!
 
Here’s a look at the odds for division winners and conference champion in 2019 (link):

B1G West
  • Nebraska +300
  • Wisconsin +350
  • Purdue +400
  • Minnesota +475
  • Iowa +500
  • Northwestern +600
  • Illinois +4000
Which team, or combination of teams, do you think has the most value? I feel like if you put $100 each on Wisc, Iowa, and NW, you are going to come out ahead.
 
Fryowa said:
We can bet on in state teams. The only thing restricted is in-game props for Iowa teams.

So, we can bet on win/lose, O/U, win totals, and anything else for Iowa/ISU/UNI/Drake, just not the in game props in any game involving an Iowa team.

Prop bets for any other college or pro game are totally legal.

Sorry if that’s what you meant, I might not have understood you 100%. I’m kinda dumb, just ask around.
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What’s the line on Iowa to win Big10? My buddy went to Vegas and laid 50 on that for me and I came back with Iowa to win National Championship.
 
pootspot said:
What’s the line on Iowa to win Big10? My buddy went to Vegas and laid 50 on that for me and I came back with Iowa to win National Championship.
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According to the link I just posted above, +3500 to win B1G.

B1G Champion
  • Ohio State +125
  • Michigan +215
  • Nebraska +1000
  • Penn State +1200
  • Michigan State +1300
  • Wisconsin +1600
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Northwestern +2800
  • Iowa +3500
  • Purdue +3500
  • Indiana +12500
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +22500
  • Rutgers +50000
Collectively, how much money will the state of Nebraska lose in sports betting on college FB this year? There may have to be some sort of federal disaster relief provided.
 
Andre Dawson at the casino in Waterloo the day they opened the sports book had a pretty good quote. He said, "I don't know what I'm doing here -- I don't even gamble. When I go to a casino I always head straight for the buffet." When Vegas came out with college regular season win totals, Deace had 13 recommendations. I did some additional research and came up with 6 teams I felt comfortable putting some money on. When I went to place those bets, the book wasn't even taking money on my sure thing, and odds for the other 5 teams had moved a full game in the direction I was going to bet, basically moving them all into what I call the 'toss-up' range which is exactly where they should be for the book to make money. So I walked out without spending a dime, realizing next year I need to move quickly after the first Vegas totals come out.
 
CP87 said:
According to the link I just posted above, +3500 to win B1G.

B1G Champion
  • Ohio State +125
  • Michigan +215
  • Nebraska +1000
  • Penn State +1200
  • Michigan State +1300
  • Wisconsin +1600
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Northwestern +2800
  • Iowa +3500
  • Purdue +3500
  • Indiana +12500
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +22500
  • Rutgers +50000
Collectively, how much money will the state of Nebraska lose in sports betting on college FB this year? There may have to be some sort of federal disaster relief provided.
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Call me a homer but I like that action for Iowa
 
CP87 said:
Here’s a look at the odds for division winners and conference champion in 2019 (link):

B1G West
  • Nebraska +300
  • Wisconsin +350
  • Purdue +400
  • Minnesota +475
  • Iowa +500
  • Northwestern +600
  • Illinois +4000
Which team, or combination of teams, do you think has the most value? I feel like if you put $100 each on Wisc, Iowa, and NW, you are going to come out ahead.
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Anyone know where can bet online/reputable? I’m in AZ and have to drive to Vegas or do online
 
pootspot said:
Anyone know where can bet online/reputable? I’m in AZ and have to drive to Vegas or do online
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Any of the major European sportsbooks work fine, trouble can sometimes be getting your money in and out. I know a few people that have used Bovada, which sounds like me saying that I’ve used it and am endorsing it. That is not the case. I have no idea whether FanDuel or DraftKings is available in your state, but it would be worth downloading them to find out.

pootspot said:
Iowa vs state
Iowa vs Mich
Iowa Vs Debbie

I’ll take that 3 team parlay
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Problem here is that the only game of those currently available (If you’re going the William Hill route) is little brother, so a parlay is impossible. That’s the only game they have that’s not week one, so I doubt there will be many other early lines available to us.
 
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For anyone curious, the William Hill Iowa app works well. I won money on my first two bets, both on Hawaii. Both paid out about ten minutes after the game ended. My only qualm is that there doesn’t appear to be any sort of search functionality, so you have to scroll to find the games you want. Parlays and teasers are very easy to configure as well, you just add them all to the cart and then choose what kind of bet you want to make. That said, it might take you few minutes to find everything if you’re doing more than one team.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
For anyone curious, the William Hill Iowa app works well. I won money on my first two bets, both on Hawaii. Both paid out about ten minutes after the game ended. My only qualm is that there doesn’t appear to be any sort of search functionality, so you have to scroll to find the games you want. Parlays and teasers are very easy to configure as well, you just add them all to the cart and then choose what kind of bet you want to make. That said, it might take you few minutes to find everything if you’re doing more than one team.
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Yeah I've been getting familiar with it as well.
I agree that I don't like not having future games odds to parlay with. It's got the minimum of games and action it looks like.
Also I seen on their odds, Iowa is only 2-1 to win the West. +200
To win the b10 championship. Iowa at +1800 but Vegas has them at +2200.
So they are not giving great odds, that's for sure.
That kind of difference in spreads could cost a guy a small fortune in a season. Because the difference of 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 is huge in giving up points just as the difference of +120 is compared to -110.
You always have to ask, is the juice worth the squeeze.
 
4thngoal said:
Yeah I've been getting familiar with it as well.
I agree that I don't like not having future games odds to parlay with. It's got the minimum of games and action it looks like.
Also I seen on their odds, Iowa is only 2-1 to win the West. +200
To win the b10 championship. Iowa at +1800 but Vegas has them at +2200.
So they are not giving great odds, that's for sure.
That kind of difference in spreads could cost a guy a small fortune in a season. Because the difference of 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 is huge in giving up points just as the difference of +120 is compared to -110.
You always have to ask, is the juice worth the squeeze.
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Futures as whole are very disappointing. They’re only offering ~44 teams! Spreads on games are all right there with the other sports books, +-1/2 a point, but you’re going to get that with Vegas sports books. I just didn’t bet many futures, I think I settled on four, and only $75 apiece. There was a lot of movement overall on a lot of team O/Us, but William Hill moves a couple games by 1/2 a game that most other books didn’t. FanDuel and DraftKings are the way to go for futures, if they’re available to you.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
Futures as whole are very disappointing. They’re only offering ~44 teams! Spreads on games are all right there with the other sports books, +-1/2 a point, but you’re going to get that with Vegas sports books. I just didn’t bet many futures, I think I settled on four, and only $75 apiece. There was a lot of movement overall on a lot of team O/Us, but William Hill moves a couple games by 1/2 a game that most other books didn’t. FanDuel and DraftKings are the way to go for futures, if they’re available to you.
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Yeah but I'm not even talking futures in the normal terminology.
If I want to bet on Nebraska Colorado, I can't do it until the week of?
Last night I was getting more familiar with how it all works and I can't get a line on Minnesota's half time score but I can on almost every other game they list?
PLUS
Like you said the teams are limited.
It's almost like they are trying to play as an in-between guy between the bettor and Vegas. They don't like the spread of a game they don't offer it. Basically picking through all games and odds and choosing what they want to offer action on (trying to stack the deck).
This could be because they are just getting up and running and I hope it is. Otherwise people will just continue to do it the way they always have. People really don't like change anyway, so you have to entice them and having a limited product that may or may not be a little on the expensive side (worse odds) isn't the way to do it.
But try putting in all the exact same boring slot machines and see what happens.
Just saying.
 
4thngoal said:
Yeah but I'm not even talking futures in the normal terminology.
If I want to bet on Nebraska Colorado, I can't do it until the week of?
Last night I was getting more familiar with how it all works and I can't get a line on Minnesota's half time score but I can on almost every other game they list?
PLUS
Like you said the teams are limited.
It's almost like they are trying to play as an in-between guy between the bettor and Vegas. They don't like the spread of a game they don't offer it. Basically picking through all games and odds and choosing what they want to offer action on (trying to stack the deck).
This could be because they are just getting up and running and I hope it is. Otherwise people will just continue to do it the way they always have. People really don't like change anyway, so you have to entice them and having a limited product that may or may not be a little on the expensive side (worse odds) isn't the way to do it.
But try putting in all the exact same boring slot machines and see what happens.
Just saying.
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I’d guess that Minnesota first half prop will open up at game time, but that sucks because the odds will change based on who receives the kick, so it could automatically work against you even if you bet at the earliest availability. And yeah, the only early line they have is Iowa @ Iowa State. Hopefully they get their shit together. I asked a few staff members if they’d be adding any teams, they were all totally clueless. I’ve been incredibly underwhelmed with the staff working the Prairie Meadows book. At best they’ve been woefully incompetent. At worst they’ve been super awkward and even rude. Walk in, make your deposit, and GTFO (After you wait in line to get to the counter with six people standing behind it, but only one window is open).
 
I will be checking out other sports books and see what they offer.
I have a bunch of travel coming up and will be to just about every corner of the state in the next month or two.
So my plan is to sign up for them all and see what's what.
Has anyone else tried any others?
 
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