Some interesting halfway point Massey numbers

[ssckelley]

Hawkeyegamefilm posted the results of a few projected-wins models for the Hawks through the rest of the season. The models had the chance of us going undefeated the rest of the way ranging between 3-9%.

We sit here thinking it is a near certainty they win out, and any result but that would be a catastrophic failure. But it is really hard to win football games. Teams favored by 5 lose about 40% of the time. Teams that are a TD favorite lose about 30% of the time. Teams that are 2 TD favorites lose about 15% of the time.

So if we look at any one game remaining, we can say they "should" win it. But there is a substantial chance of losing each one. And all of those substantial chances of losing add up over 6 games against in-conference competition. If they win out, it will truly be an epic performance.

Not me, Iowa ALWAYS stumbles at least once and loses a game they should win. As thrilled as I am to hear Iowa being talked about in the CFP picture I'm not setting that as the expectation. I still just want Iowa to win the West and reach the Big Ten championship game, anything beyond that is gravy. Iowa is going to be favored in every game from here on out, and they should be, but the odds of Iowa going undefeated is still small.

 

[HuckFinn]

An undefeated season is nearly impossible. Way too many variables. We are half way there in the regular season. Long way to go.

However, on Monday, October 11, 2021, we are #2 in the nation. We are ranked ahead of Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and a host of other top drawer programs. Who in this universe would have predicted this to happen?
If someone had posted this ranking on HN in September, s/he would have been the target of ridicule with no mercy.

Question. Have we ever seen this movie before?

 

[ssckelley]

Question. Have we ever seen this movie before?

1985 is the closest I can remember.

I know Iowa ran the table in 2015 but it lacked that big top 5 win. The 2002 season gave us a huge disappointment early on when Iowa lost to Iowa State.

 

[HuckFinn]

Damn. I forgot to add Nebraska to the list of teams we out rank.

 

[Hawkboys]

Damn. I forgot to add Nebraska to the list of teams we out rank.

That's a given, like saying we're better than Illinois.

 

[Dadman]

Damn. I forgot to add Nebraska to the list of teams we out rank.

Who knows? NE could conceivably be 6-5 when we play them. Not that they would be ranked (unless they beat OS)........all I am saying is that Nebraska may be a "quality win"......though it really makes my teeth grind to even think that..........

 

[Luftgekuehlt67]

An undefeated season is nearly impossible. Way too many variables. We are half way there in the regular season. Long way to go.

However, on Monday, October 11, 2021, we are #2 in the nation. We are ranked ahead of Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and a host of other top drawer programs. Who in this universe would have predicted this to happen?
If someone had posted this ranking on HN in September, s/he would have been the target of ridicule with no mercy.

Question. Have we ever seen this movie before?

Yeah, right on.

Call me corny and/or old fashioned, but I think, done correctly, sports fandom can teach you a lot of good life lessons.

One of the big positive lessons in my time as a sports fan: enjoy things while they last, because they *never* do.

Wish we were Alabama? Yeah, me too, but guess what? Saban is going to retire at some point. Look at Alabama pre-Saban - one of the greatest programs in college football history, lost in the woods. It can and will happen again.

Positive thinking, it really works. How we sell things to ourselves in our own heads makes a real difference.

If we were to lose to Purdue for example, its pretty easy to go down the, "we suck", "nothing good ever happens to me", etc route.

Or, embrace the fact that, through good coaching and clean living, we've put ourselves in a position to be playing with house money to the tune of a #2 ranking. If we blow it, at least that means we put ourselves in a position where such a failure was possible. The overwhelming majority of teams wish they were so lucky 6 games in. I don't know about you guys, but I've enjoyed the hell out of getting here. The next L, whenever it comes, is gonna suck no matter what. I'm not going to let that cloud the good vibes for me.

 

[Luftgekuehlt67]

Who knows? NE could conceivably be 6-5 when we play them. Not that they would be ranked (unless they beat OS)........all I am saying is that Nebraska may be a "quality win"......though it really makes my teeth grind to even think that..........

I've said it probably a half dozen times already, but walking into Memorial Stadium on Black Friday at 11-0 with the Fuskers sitting on 5 wins is my personal nightmare.

 

[Dadman]

Question. Have we ever seen this movie before?

I think 2015..........only because that season had CFP implications, and we had "professional" media naysayers, as I recall Finebean only acknowledged Iowa after we played MSU close in the B10 championship. And there was Cowturd, of course.

Point is, this has been a helluva ride so far. And I am enjoying it while it lasts........I really believe we can get to 12-0 again, and when we get close, if we get close, then I am going to hope like hell that tOSU stubs a toe or two because that is the only team in the B10 that could potentially boat race us.

 

[Dadman]

I've said it probably a half dozen times already, but walking into Memorial Stadium on Black Friday at 11-0 with the Fuskers sitting on 5 wins is my personal nightmare.

I cannot agree more..........I either hope they are 6-5 or 4-7.

 

[uihawk82]

I am really amazed at how a thread about Hawk Massey ratings and about Iowa's undefeated season so far veers off into some hate fest or even discussion about Nebby. I am more worried about Purdue and Bell and their other good receivers scoring on some big plays

 

[loesshillshawk]

I’m wondering if apathy isn’t already setting in after that gut wrenching loss to Michigan? There is a chance they won’t be playing for anything in that game. It will be interesting to see if Frost can get them to rally.

They have @Minnesota, BYE, Purdue at home, Ohio State at home, @Wisconsin, and Iowa at home. They lose to Minnesota, best Purdue, lose to OSU, lose to Wisconsin, that puts them at 4-7 going into Iowa, if they beat Minnesota they are 5-6 and we become the team that could send them to a bowl. We want them to lose to Minny, struggle with or lose to Purdue and Banjo Boy will have lost his team.

 

[ssckelley]

They have @Minnesota, BYE, Purdue at home, Ohio State at home, @Wisconsin, and Iowa at home. They lose to Minnesota, best Purdue, lose to OSU, lose to Wisconsin, that puts them at 4-7 going into Iowa, if they beat Minnesota they are 5-6 and we become the team that could send them to a bowl. We want them to lose to Minny, struggle with or lose to Purdue and Banjo Boy will have lost his team.

This is EXACTLY what I want to see happen. I want them completely demoralized going into that game and this next game at Minnesota will go a long ways to accomplish that. Hopefully the Minnesota team that lost to Bowling Green State doesn't show up.

 

[loesshillshawk]

This is EXACTLY what I want to see happen. I want them completely demoralized going into that game and this next game at Minnesota will go a long ways to accomplish that. Hopefully the Minnesota team that lost to Bowling Green State doesn't show up.

PJ needs this one, and knowing banjo boy he thinks they can win all their remaining games.

 

[CP87]

This is EXACTLY what I want to see happen. I want them completely demoralized going into that game and this next game at Minnesota will go a long ways to accomplish that. Hopefully the Minnesota team that lost to Bowling Green State doesn't show up.

Gophs are down to 3rd string RB.

 

[ssckelley]

Gophs are down to 3rd string RB.

4th string even, if I'm not mistaken the 3rd string was Ky Thomas who injured his arm against CSU. I believe Mar'Keise Irving is next in line, he is a true freshman and one of the top recruits at running back (4* on 247). He's already been getting game action even before the injuries.

 

[CP87]

4th string even, if I'm not mistaken the 3rd string was Ky Thomas who injured his arm against CSU. I believe Mar'Keise Irving is next in line, he is a true freshman and one of the top recruits at running back (4* on 247). He's already been getting game action even before the injuries.

Yikes. That was how Ibrahim got in back in 2018 as a freshman, and he worked out pretty well. Maybe this frosh can do the same.

 

[Luftgekuehlt67]

They have @Minnesota, BYE, Purdue at home, Ohio State at home, @Wisconsin, and Iowa at home. They lose to Minnesota, best Purdue, lose to OSU, lose to Wisconsin, that puts them at 4-7 going into Iowa, if they beat Minnesota they are 5-6 and we become the team that could send them to a bowl. We want them to lose to Minny, struggle with or lose to Purdue and Banjo Boy will have lost his team.

It will be a big litmus test to see where Frost is at with the locker room.

I think they should probably beat Minnesota. Probably not a blowout, but I could see a comfortable 7-10 pt type win.

If Nebraska lays an egg...it could be the beginning of the end. They may be coming unraveled.

He NEEDS a bowl to save his bacon (still might not be enough). If they can't get the W at Minny, it'll be tough sledding getting to 6.

 

[CP87]

As long as we are talking analytics...

Some love to trumpet the 120th ranked total offense as a sign that Iowa is extremely deficient.

But they are 58th in Football Outsiders Offensive Efficiency metric (essentially middle of the pack), and 52nd in pts/game. All of that while starting 2 freshman and a sophomore on the OL for most of the year, breaking in a brand new RB coach and OL coach, and working in 2 true freshman WR. Very reasonable to expect continued improvement from this bunch.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

As long as we are talking analytics...

Some love to trumpet the 120th ranked total offense as a sign that Iowa is extremely deficient.

But they are 58th in Football Outsiders Offensive Efficiency metric (essentially middle of the pack), and 52nd in pts/game. All of that while starting 2 freshman and a sophomore on the OL for most of the year, breaking in a brand new RB coach and OL coach, and working in 2 true freshman WR. Very reasonable to expect continued improvement from this bunch.

PFF grades them as the 32 overall offense as well.