So What Will It Look Like in 5 Years with the NIL

L

longtimer

Well-Known Member
Just read an article on line about Nebraska. Rhule was answering questions about the Portal and finding a QB. Looks like they want to find one but he says they are going for 1.5 to 2 million. He says he knows of players in the 5-6 million range. Doesn't seem thrilled with the NIL Another article about Minnesota. Fleck seems to be almost giving up as he loses players and apparently is struggling to find enough NIL dollars.

Just a couple of examples.. How does an Iowa fare in the NIL world going forward? Does the divide between the Iowas of the world and the Michigans increase substantially? Does it create an elite group that eventually changes the conference/TV arrangements in place? Does congress get involved?

It's going to be different and its going to be interesting to see how it unfolds
 
Tier #1 Blue Bloods - The rich get richer and pull all the stud players from the portal.

<gap>

Tier #2 - Fringe teams that might have enough to stay competitive and occasionally have that special season if all aligns right.
Tier #3 - The best of the rest. Just can never get over that hump. Smaller fan base that doesn't bring as much NIL in. Really never competitive and schedule fillers. - Prob where Minny lands with no NIL support and being in an NFL city.

I've learned to accept the portal and actually thought might be good for college football as could help with parity with players looking for playing time. But, the NIL is the killer as it separates the programs and benefit who can pay the top players the most. That is going to crush the parity that the portal provided alone.

I think Iowa could be in that Tier 2 group.
 
I just don't see how the ROI on these kids can be worth it. Like, if an elite QB cost a mil, what if they come to your school on a bum knee and then can hardly walk and then are out of the season after game 5?

What if you buy a Jeff Simms out of the ACC and he comes to your school at has 20 turnovers in his first 3 games?

Like at some point, doesn't the market kind of balance and settle? I've also heard NOTHING but how Nebraska is winning in the NIL and that they will be able to compete because of their big dollar donars. A good QB on thier team this season and they likely would have won 8 or 9 games....and their HC is like "nah we're gonna run it back again this season caue we can't compete in the open market for a QB?"

weird.
 
InGoodCo said:
I just don't see how the ROI on these kids can be worth it. Like, if an elite QB cost a mil, what if they come to your school on a bum knee and then can hardly walk and then are out of the season after game 5?

What if you buy a Jeff Simms out of the ACC and he comes to your school at has 20 turnovers in his first 3 games?

Like at some point, doesn't the market kind of balance and settle? I've also heard NOTHING but how Nebraska is winning in the NIL and that they will be able to compete because of their big dollar donars. A good QB on thier team this season and they likely would have won 8 or 9 games....and their HC is like "nah we're gonna run it back again this season caue we can't compete in the open market for a QB?"

weird.
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I do believe the market will correct itself.
 
InGoodCo said:
I just don't see how the ROI on these kids can be worth it. Like, if an elite QB cost a mil, what if they come to your school on a bum knee and then can hardly walk and then are out of the season after game 5?

What if you buy a Jeff Simms out of the ACC and he comes to your school at has 20 turnovers in his first 3 games?

Like at some point, doesn't the market kind of balance and settle? I've also heard NOTHING but how Nebraska is winning in the NIL and that they will be able to compete because of their big dollar donars. A good QB on thier team this season and they likely would have won 8 or 9 games....and their HC is like "nah we're gonna run it back again this season caue we can't compete in the open market for a QB?"

weird.
Click to expand...

Seriously, what do you do with the HS player that comes to a school than decides after a season or two to leave and enter the portal? Is there only guaranteed $$ one year at a time? Can he get paid than fish for more NIL $$$ when entering the portal?

It sounds like a freaking mess and involving lawyers and agreements to me. What a mess.
 
As crazy as it sounds, I think this will benefit developmental teams like Iowa. Players with ability like Kaleb Brown will end up being a dime a dozen. They are highly rated players and aren't getting the immediate playing time they were promised when they were being recruited, so they transfer from blue-blood to another P5 school and are basically stuck there. A school will have the time to develop that talent and may get more out of that player than someone they recruited out of HS. As well as we have done finding diamonds in the rough, we have missed on a lot of those types of players. People STILL bitch about Iowa only bringing in 2 and 3 star players. This will give us (and others like us) to get 4 and potentially 5 star talent, that already has college experience and coaching to bring in and further develop.
 
trj said:
Ugeialeie(sp?) is in the portal AGAIN. Is that dude worth 2 mil a year? I understand the argument you are worth, what you can get, but damn it seems like you are potentially overpaying for this guy.
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Kurt Warners kid is in the portal he played QB for Temple with 2 yrs left. What's wild about that is Kurt seems like the kind of guy that would be against the whole way NIL/transfer portal way things are. But maybe not. But his kid has put himself up for the highest bidder too. It's pretty wild and this is just the begining
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Kurt Warners kid is in the portal he played QB for Temple with 2 yrs left. What's wild about that is Kurt seems like the kind of guy that would be against the whole way NIL/transfer portal way things are. But maybe not. But his kid has put himself up for the highest bidder too. It's pretty wild and this is just the begining
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I really do believe the market will correct itself. Schools will figure out how to bring in kids to stick around and develop and how to plug-in holes with "free agency". I just don't know when this market correction will happen. Is it 5,10, 20 years down the road before they figure it all out? I have no feel or no clue on when that is going to happen.
 
With my lawyer cap on, I actually think schools and collectives will become more organized and stabilize the market through contracts. No one is handing out a million bucks without a contract with terms. Those terms are going to start to include a term of service. In other words, stud kid getting a million bucks, if you transfer before 3 years is up, you have to pay the money back.

These types of agreements are regularly used in employment contracts and are legal in most states. These kids are getting paid a lot of money, and the people fronting that money are going to want to see them stick around.

This may not be just to lock in the stud transfers. Maybe your whole freshmen class gets 50k each, but they agree to stay for 3 or 4 years. So, if a kid blows up, he can't just run to a program with more cash.

The pendulum is going to swing back and this is one way it will.
 
longtimer said:
Just read an article on line about Nebraska. Rhule was answering questions about the Portal and finding a QB. Looks like they want to find one but he says they are going for 1.5 to 2 million. He says he knows of players in the 5-6 million range. Doesn't seem thrilled with the NIL Another article about Minnesota. Fleck seems to be almost giving up as he loses players and apparently is struggling to find enough NIL dollars.

Just a couple of examples.. How does an Iowa fare in the NIL world going forward? Does the divide between the Iowas of the world and the Michigans increase substantially? Does it create an elite group that eventually changes the conference/TV arrangements in place? Does congress get involved?

It's going to be different and its going to be interesting to see how it unfolds
Click to expand...
You have already stated what will happen. You are right. I said this same thing when NIL showed it’s true colors as a method for the big dogs to buy their teams, totally ignoring the law that they could not use NIL as a recruiting tool. How stupid are those who thought this was a great idea.
 
99topdawg said:
As crazy as it sounds, I think this will benefit developmental teams like Iowa. Players with ability like Kaleb Brown will end up being a dime a dozen. They are highly rated players and aren't getting the immediate playing time they were promised when they were being recruited, so they transfer from blue-blood to another P5 school and are basically stuck there. A school will have the time to develop that talent and may get more out of that player than someone they recruited out of HS. As well as we have done finding diamonds in the rough, we have missed on a lot of those types of players. People STILL bitch about Iowa only bringing in 2 and 3 star players. This will give us (and others like us) to get 4 and potentially 5 star talent, that already has college experience and coaching to bring in and further develop.
Click to expand...
Damn. I hope you are reading this process correctly.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
With my lawyer cap on, I actually think schools and collectives will become more organized and stabilize the market through contracts. No one is handing out a million bucks without a contract with terms. Those terms are going to start to include a term of service. In other words, stud kid getting a million bucks, if you transfer before 3 years is up, you have to pay the money back.

These types of agreements are regularly used in employment contracts and are legal in most states. These kids are getting paid a lot of money, and the people fronting that money are going to want to see them stick around.

This may not be just to lock in the stud transfers. Maybe your whole freshmen class gets 50k each, but they agree to stay for 3 or 4 years. So, if a kid blows up, he can't just run to a program with more cash.

The pendulum is going to swing back and this is one way it will.
Click to expand...
Hopefully…
 
NorthKCHawk said:
With my lawyer cap on, I actually think schools and collectives will become more organized and stabilize the market through contracts. No one is handing out a million bucks without a contract with terms. Those terms are going to start to include a term of service. In other words, stud kid getting a million bucks, if you transfer before 3 years is up, you have to pay the money back.

These types of agreements are regularly used in employment contracts and are legal in most states. These kids are getting paid a lot of money, and the people fronting that money are going to want to see them stick around.

This may not be just to lock in the stud transfers. Maybe your whole freshmen class gets 50k each, but they agree to stay for 3 or 4 years. So, if a kid blows up, he can't just run to a program with more cash.

The pendulum is going to swing back and this is one way it will.
Click to expand...
In general, I suspect and hope you're right, over the long-term.
And I think the idea of entire elite position groups -- especially OLines, DLines and WRs -- also organizing and demanding big bucks for even 1 season, is just around the corner.
But I don't think you'll ever see an entire Fr class agree to stay for 3 or 4 years -- the better players ALSO have access to lawyers and would never agree to that.
 
This is where culture is going to become king. Money can buy players, but it can't make them stick around, and it can't make them work together. Iowa has lost remarkably few players to the portal over the last few years, especially considering how ugly things have gotten on the offensive side of the ball. Instead, we see offensive players hugging BF and dousing him with gatorade after his final home game. That is what a superior culture gets you, and that is going to have to be one way the have-nots try to compete with the haves.

Iowa is actually sitting okay with NIL (top-half of the conference), but most importantly, they built their system for sustainability and growth. They didn't lose their heads like a drunk dude on his first night in Vegas...they built the system thoughtfully and did not get over their skis. They caught crap for moving too methodically, but I think it will pay off in the long wrong. Sure would help to have a few billionaire alumni, though.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
With my lawyer cap on, I actually think schools and collectives will become more organized and stabilize the market through contracts. No one is handing out a million bucks without a contract with terms. Those terms are going to start to include a term of service. In other words, stud kid getting a million bucks, if you transfer before 3 years is up, you have to pay the money back.

These types of agreements are regularly used in employment contracts and are legal in most states. These kids are getting paid a lot of money, and the people fronting that money are going to want to see them stick around.

This may not be just to lock in the stud transfers. Maybe your whole freshmen class gets 50k each, but they agree to stay for 3 or 4 years. So, if a kid blows up, he can't just run to a program with more cash.

The pendulum is going to swing back and this is one way it will.
Click to expand...

I agree. I hope some market standard develops for escrowing funds to ensure kids get paid. Where I see this going is the really rich programs getting into bidding wars for who they believe to be the top scouts and portal swayers. Some greasy bag man with an eye for talent could wind up making as much as coordinators or maybe even as much as head coaches if he can identify and deliver on the Jimmys and Joes. That's where the action is. Nick Saban ain't Nick Saban because he's dealing with QBs like Spencer Petras, he's Nick Saban because he's had Tua, Jalen, Bryce, etc., plus a ridiculous cast of supporting characters. Say what you want about Kirk Ferentz, but if you gave that guy the rosters Nick has had he also would have a lot of championship teams. There are plenty of guys who can coach, but very few who can coach AND land the top talent. Hence, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market really start swaying toward the portal whisperers because when it's 4th and goal from the 31 yard line in the waning seconds of a rivalry game that you are losing by 4 points there ain't a play you can draw up that has much hope, the only hope is that you have a QB who can put the ball on a dime anywhere on the field and a WR who has been gifted with an NFL body and soft supple hands who can pull in a desperation pass. The coach doesn't win games like that last Iron Bowl, the players do. So guys who can land players are guys who will warrant the most money.
 
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Iowa needs to follow the Missouri legislature and let high school kids collect NIL money if they sign with an in state school.

I don't know what safeguards there are from keeping from switching enrollment at the last minute. NLI's aren't binding. But, I do believe there are some NCAA restrictions (either outright...or by gentleman's agreement) on other schools recruiting after an NLI is signed. Course, not like NCAA rules are ever applied sensibly, or even followed. And yes, nothing stopping them from hitting the portal after that.
 
CP87 said:
This is where culture is going to become king. Money can buy players, but it can't make them stick around, and it can't make them work together. Iowa has lost remarkably few players to the portal over the last few years, especially considering how ugly things have gotten on the offensive side of the ball. Instead, we see offensive players hugging BF and dousing him with gatorade after his final home game. That is what a superior culture gets you, and that is going to have to be one way the have-nots try to compete with the haves.

Iowa is actually sitting okay with NIL (top-half of the conference), but most importantly, they built their system for sustainability and growth. They didn't lose their heads like a drunk dude on his first night in Vegas...they built the system thoughtfully and did not get over their skis. They caught crap for moving too methodically, but I think it will pay off in the long wrong. Sure would help to have a few billionaire alumni, though.
Click to expand...
Did not know most of this. Makes me feel a lot better about Iowa’s position.
 
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