3 years 7 or fewer wins, 3 years 8 or more wins.
Seriously people, you all seem to forget this.
Duff seems to think the down seasons don't match the up seasons. The rest of you don't see the trend will involve an up swing in a couple of years.
Find something else to occupy your time for the next couple of years, or learn to have the mediocre stretch not mean so much.
Overall, I tend to agree with you, but have a caveat or two:
Although this has been a past trend, it does not guarantee a similar trend in the future. In the B1G, programs are either improving or declining. Consider:
1. Michigan has been way down (relatively) for a bit. That, I predict, will NOT continue. Michigan is bringing in the top DL line recruiting class in the country and the #1 or #2 overall class. Can't count on beating them in a couple of years.
2. MSU is, arguably, on a sustained upswing. They recruit at least as well as Iowa, and are well coached. They aren't going away.
3. Nebraska will likely consistently recruit well, and play well. We haven't played them this year, and they are a new factor to the "up years, down years" formula. They will not be a bottom feeder.
4. Northwestern, as we know, is not an automatic win.
5. Minny....who knows? They could improve a fair amount over the next three years, and they seem to have a solid coach.
6. Purdue (our new protected rival). They are arguably on the upswing and will be tough to beat in the coming years (just my opinion). Look at their historical record vs. the hawks (I know that's not really relevant, but does give one some perspective on the history of their program).
I see Iowa being better the next two years, but I also see every one of their divisional foes being formidable. Again, one could certainly argue otherwise, but I think things are changing and it will be hard to get easy wins.