So Spank.....

[storminspank]

I seriously don't want to rehash this **** again. I made my point when this happened. People aren't going to agree with each other on it. That's the way it is, one side isn't going to convince the other side. Why **** with it again?

But I will add this, of your possibilities. With the way JVB was playing in the ISU game, a Pick 6 wasn't out of the realm either. Iowa had a long way to go with an inconsistent offense with less than 80 seconds to go. Doesn't make too much sense to risk it.

The Pitt/ISU games aren't even comparable.

 

[ssckelley]

I also wish they would have at least attempted the pass on first down. I could tell the run was coming and obviously Iowa State did also. Make them think you are going for it and if the pass is incomplete on first down perhaps you catch them off guard running a draw play on 2nd down.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda, not going to change the results. I am with Spank, let's not relive this anymore.

 

[hawkfan340]

I seriously don't want to rehash this **** again. I made my point when this happened. People aren't going to agree with each other on it. That's the way it is, one side isn't going to convince the other side. Why **** with it again?

But I will add this, of your possibilities. With the way JVB was playing in the ISU game, a Pick 6 wasn't out of the realm either. Iowa had a long way to go with an inconsistent offense with less than 80 seconds to go. Doesn't make too much sense to risk it.

The Pitt/ISU games aren't even comparable.

Just give me your numbers for scenarios 1-4. We start the 2 minute drill at 1st and ten. What say you?

 

[whammer33024]

if the ISU game was this weekend and the same situation came up, i could absolutely agree with what you're saying. at the time, vandy had struggled during the game and we hadn't see what he can really do(meaning the last 5 quarters of football).

so i agree with spank that sitting on it after the first play of the drive was the correct call

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

For those who think we made the correct call, please assign probability to the following outcomes if we had attempted to run a legitimate two minute drill to end the game:

1) We move the ball 45 or more yards and kick the winning FG/scores TD. 5%
2) We turn the ball over with enough time and/or in the right field position for ISU to kick the winning FG/score TD. 5%
3) We fail to gain a single first down, punt the ball, and ISU drives and converts winning FG/TD. Also include here any probability that Iowa gains a first down but still ends up punting and ISU scores the winning FG/TD if you think there is some probability of this happening. 10-20% (or more)
4) We attempt to drive the ball, but ultimately the game goes to OT anyway.** 70-80%

The only way we'd have a chance is if Vandenberg was taking more chances. Given the way he was passing the ball that day ... I doubt Iowa wins with that amount of time remaining. What's more, by taking more risks ... the chance of throwing a pick ends up getting much higher. Forcing balls into small windows often leads to tipped balls ... and ISU is pretty darn good at picking off tipped balls (they've done it a lot over the past several years).

Furthermore, towards the end of the game, ISU had a TON of momentum. We frankly didn't have much of an answer to Jantz. And, even more worrisome, their placekicker booted a 50+ yarder ... and had distance to spare. Considering that ISU had the momentum and had a kicker who could hit the long one .... I really think that ISU could have won it in regulation.

Of course, A LOT of this is based upon the premise of how Vandenberg and our O was playing in that game. Had Vandenberg gotten into a better rhythm in the game ... then the odds certainly could have been different. However, the circumstances weren't different ... they were what they were.