ESPN continues to use its own "Football Power Index" to rank the nation's football teams and to predict future results. They're proud of their little Index, but they keep their calculations secret. In describing how it works, they say the Index has "a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component ... represent[ing] the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to its net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent." The Index also factors in a preseason component which takes into account "prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure." ESPN keeps its actual calculations secret, but defends them as being an accurate predictor of future results: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/109828/reintroducing-espns-college-football-power-index
In reality, the Index is just a form of statistical voodoo ESPN uses to support its preconceptions.
Iowa started the year ranked 53rd on the Index, which is understandable. By the time Iowa was 7-0, ESPN had moved us up to 29th, which was puzzling but somewhat understandable. Surprisingly, however, after that NOTHING HAPPENED. We stayed at 29th, week after week, even as we climbed to 11-0. Over those weeks, teams ahead of us lost multiple games, and some of those losses were to teams we had defeated, but nothing changed.
I thought that 12-0 would finally give us a lift, and it did. As of today, ESPN now ranks us at 28th:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/year/2015/key/20151128040000
That's right. After thumping Nebraska in their own stadium to reach 12-0 and finishing the regular season as one of the only two remaining undefeated teams, ESPN says we are just the 28th best team, behind such teams as Cal (6-5), West Virginia (6-4), and Arkansas (7-5), plus ten other 3 and 4 loss teams.
ESPN defense is that the Index is an accurate predictive tool. I think they're lying. They have been wrong about Iowa all season long, week after week. When a calculation produces observably nonsensical results, its methodology should be reviewed and changed. ESPN refuses to do this.
In reality, the Index is just a form of statistical voodoo ESPN uses to support its preconceptions.
Iowa started the year ranked 53rd on the Index, which is understandable. By the time Iowa was 7-0, ESPN had moved us up to 29th, which was puzzling but somewhat understandable. Surprisingly, however, after that NOTHING HAPPENED. We stayed at 29th, week after week, even as we climbed to 11-0. Over those weeks, teams ahead of us lost multiple games, and some of those losses were to teams we had defeated, but nothing changed.
I thought that 12-0 would finally give us a lift, and it did. As of today, ESPN now ranks us at 28th:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/year/2015/key/20151128040000
That's right. After thumping Nebraska in their own stadium to reach 12-0 and finishing the regular season as one of the only two remaining undefeated teams, ESPN says we are just the 28th best team, behind such teams as Cal (6-5), West Virginia (6-4), and Arkansas (7-5), plus ten other 3 and 4 loss teams.
ESPN defense is that the Index is an accurate predictive tool. I think they're lying. They have been wrong about Iowa all season long, week after week. When a calculation produces observably nonsensical results, its methodology should be reviewed and changed. ESPN refuses to do this.
