Well if there's something to be encouraged about to me for this team it's this. I think they can win 6 of the last 9 games. I don't think we'll beat OSU whenever we end up playing them. I don't think we'll beat IL or MSU either. So the key to how we look down the stretch to me are the Michigan games. If we split them that'd be alright but losing both and any of the others would be not good at all but winning both and the rest should have us sitting pretty to go dancing and get a decent 7 seed or so depending how the BIG tourny goes.
Schedule down the stretch
- Thread starter Hawkfnntn
- Start date
Dadman
Well-Known Member
I recall predicting we paid Purdue back, and that we beat PS........so my damn predictions suck. But, screw it, I say we finish 6-3, but we win MSU and lose to Mich at their house. I wouldn't panic if we went 5-4, but then we would need to win a couple in the BTT to make up for it. OK, maybe I would panic a little, cause we do not win 2 games in the BTT this year.
Sure hope not. I like our chances with how it should play out. Granted some would say there's a better chance of Iowa losing a game or 2 we shouldn't rather than win 1 we shouldn't. Again if I'm wrong about our chances against Michigan and we lose both of those and lose in 1st round of BIG that would knock us down off that 7 line I bet. 7 would be ideal too.
The 8/9 seeds really suck you get suck playing a solid team right away and then the #1 seed the next round. Granted you survive that it's all downhill till the final 4 just about but we've never pulled that off before either...
That's the sort of stuff we are capable of doing that makes you want to pull your hair out. Because if say we beat MSU and Mich both times then we are in the drivers seat. 5-4 shouldn't make us panic either but it'd probably put us on the fence depending on what those 4 losses are and how they look in BTT. That could be key for us too. Most likely we'll have drama because that's how we roll
Dadman
Well-Known Member
mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker
Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
BTT tourney seed predictor-have fun with above link- I usually don't play with this until we are nearly 3/4 of the way through conference.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
If Fran can get a team back in the tourney after losing two NBA draft picks and two likely starters to transfer, that would be something. Except for JBO and Connor, this is a very young team and making the tourney would show that we reload, not rebuild. And, if Keegan comes back next year, this team could be damn salty.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
I'm glad to see this back up and running, it was down yesterday.
It sure would be nice if Iowa could get up to that 6 seed. They would get a much softer 2nd round opponent and at least a fighting chance in the quarterfinals.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Only way to advance is to keep giving yourself opportunities - if Iowa gets to the Dance this year, it will be at most of this boards disbelief to start the year. So, if they advance past the first weekend, it would also be defying the odds and expectations of most of the this board and Iowa fans in general.
I've always thought Iowa was going to advance to the S16 when we likely didn't see it coming.
HaydenHawk56
Well-Known Member
Franuary. I will say, at this point, I think we are most likely likely looking at an 11 seed play in game, or a high seed in the NIT. The key games left, at Maryland, Michigan at home, Nebraska Away, and MSU at home. Iowa likely needs to win three of those and win the rest of the winnable games (Nebraska and Northwestern at home) to be safely in. I think Iowa has a 90% chance of losing the rest of their regular season games (at Michigan, Illinois, at Ohio St).
I think Iowa will win one of those key games and win their home games with Nebraska and Northwestern. So, that leaves 2 games to win in the BTT. Fran has a horrible record in the BTT so I don't have a lot of faith if it comes down to winning games in the BTT.
But, that is a doable path if they buckle down. I agree with posters above, the games against the Michigan schools will likely decide if Iowa is in or not before the start of the BTT.
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HuckFinn
Well-Known Member
Yup. It means you made it to the big dance, and you love to complain when we don’t get in.
dahlhawk
Well-Known Member
I had Iowa finishing in the top 7 teams in the conference, people on this board thought that was pie in the sky talk. Well I didn't count on the conference being quite this good. I still think this team has a chance to play .500 ball the rest of the way but the loss to Rutgers and Penn State will make it rough to finish above .500. Iowa will need to win 2 in the Big Ten tourney to make the dance.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
actually at this point we're a 7 seed almost everywhere - you see the games as L's and that's fine, but when you're wrong you're gonna need to eat it. Just like I will - I've said this was a tourney team all season and as it stands right this moment, it's looking like it's gonna go my way.
Franuary. I will say, at this point, I think we are most likely likely looking at an 11 seed play in game, or a high seed in the NIT. The key games left, at Maryland, Michigan at home, Nebraska Away, and MSU at home. Iowa likely needs to win three of those and win the rest of the winnable games (Nebraska and Northwestern at home) to be safely in. I think Iowa has a 90% chance of losing the rest of their regular season games (at Michigan, Illinois, at Ohio St).
I think Iowa will win one of those key games and win their home games with Nebraska and Northwestern. So, that leaves 2 games to win in the BTT. Fran has a horrible record in the BTT so I don't have a lot of faith if it comes down to winning games in the BTT.
But, that is a doable path if they buckle down. I agree with posters above, the games against the Michigan schools will likely decide if Iowa is in or not before the start of the BTT.
Iowa was .500 in January fwiw (dance worthy) and last season they won 8 of 10 down the stretch.
HaydenHawk56
Well-Known Member
I know they are being projected as a 7 seed. If the tournament was today, they are probably 7 to 9 seed. I will gladly eat crow if wrong. To be clear, I think they still have a decent shot of at least making the play-in game.
My trust points at this time of year with a Fran led program is not very high....and thus why I think they are probably sweating it out when all said and done. But we shall see.
Last year, they also had Garza, and Joe W for their down the stretch conference games.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Fran is 17-13 the last 10 games of the season down the stretch the last 3 seasons. It's hard to really call it a fade if you're playing over .500 ball and in all of those cases, he never dipped below .500 in his last 10 games
- but who am I to stop that bullshit narrative.
- but who am I to stop that bullshit narrative.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Next year you can say "Well, Iowa had Keegan Murray down the stretch last year, not gonna happen this year" and then what?
Fryowa
Administrator
This is the only reference one should ever use. It's by far and away the gold standard for college/pro b-ball, football, and baseball. Anyone coming at you with stats that didn't come from there is an amateur.
Teamrankings.com is the gold standard for trends and tendencies, which you won't get from Sportsreference.com.
Those 2 sites together give you any and all stats needed to analyze literally anything in those sports.
