Sagarin...

[Fryowa]

This is after this weekend's games...

Keep in mind this is not a voting poll popularity contest (looking at you, AP...). It's a mathematical rating system with zero bias or human intervention, and it's been academically shown to be the most accurate predictor of results over the long term than any other ranking system or poll.

For those out there suffering from laziness and who call bullshit, stop being lazy. Before you say it's bullshit do some research into it and then tell us why it's bullshit so we can debate it. In other words, no, "derp derp derp, there's no way nebraska is ahead of ISU because ISU just looks better and blah blah blah derpa derp!"

Bring something to the table.

 

[kicker22]

Love Sagarin and think its by far the most reliable poll out there, but for the life of me I'll never understand situations like Indiana vs. Oregon. Indiana goes to Oregon and wins by 10 yet somehow is still ranked below them. I simply don't get it. Sure there's situations where a top 10 team gets beat at home by an unranked team and still deserves to be ranked higher, but I don't see how any poll can have a top 10 undefeated team winning on the road against a top 5 team and still find a way to be ranked lower. Also don't see how a 2 loss team finds themselves at #2.
Not saying it's BS as I value their rankings higher than AP or Coaches poll its just one of those things that will always leave me scratching my head.

 

[Fryowa]

Love Sagarin and think its by far the most reliable poll out there, but for the life of me I'll never understand situations like Indiana vs. Oregon. Indiana goes to Oregon and wins by 10 yet somehow is still ranked below them. I simply don't get it. Sure there's situations where a top 10 team gets beat at home by an unranked team and still deserves to be ranked higher, but I don't see how any poll can have a top 10 undefeated team winning on the road against a top 5 team and still find a way to be ranked lower. Also don't see how a 2 loss team finds themselves at #2.
Not saying it's BS as I value their rankings higher than AP or Coaches poll its just one of those things that will always leave me scratching my head.

Sagarin's formula is kept proprietary because he makes money publishing it. But...what seals the deal for me is that it's been proven multiple times to be the most accurate predictor out there. If you read up on Sagarin and his rating system, what it's intended to do is predict the outcome of a game between any two teams on the list. That's the claim Sagarin makes...the #2 ranked team should beat the #3 ranked team depending on location (which is accounted for independently if you look at the ratings).

Now, lazy people can look at tiny sample sizes and call BS, but they're morons. When tested over the long run, his system is by far the most accurate looking at history. If you were a bettor, using his system would net you much more money than any other poll or system out there over the long run.

That's what makes it the most valid in my mind. Sure you're going to have people who shit on it when an upset happens, but again...those people are morons. What those morons need to look at is the percentage that each poll or rating system gets right and compare that.

 

[Fryowa]

Love Sagarin and think its by far the most reliable poll out there, but for the life of me I'll never understand situations like Indiana vs. Oregon. Indiana goes to Oregon and wins by 10 yet somehow is still ranked below them.

The system accounts for strength of schedule treed all the way down the line of all opponents, not just the SOS of those two schools. It's all meshed together and updated each week the season progresses and there's a consideration for home vs away (which has a statistically significant effect on outcome)

In the case of Indiana for example, it's not just looking one level down at Indiana's opponents, it's also looking at Iowa's SOS which is affected by ISU's SOS which is affected by all of ISU's opponent's SOS and so on all down the line.

 

[kicker22]

Sagarin's formula is kept proprietary because he makes money publishing it. But...what seals the deal for me is that it's been proven multiple times to be the most accurate predictor out there. If you read up on Sagarin and his rating system, what it's intended to do is predict the outcome of a game between any two teams on the list. That's the claim Sagarin makes...the #2 ranked team should beat the #3 ranked team depending on location (which is accounted for independently if you look at the ratings).

Now, lazy people can look at tiny sample sizes and call BS, but they're morons. When tested over the long run, his system is by far the most accurate looking at history. If you were a bettor, using his system would net you much more money than any other poll or system out there over the long run.

That's what makes it the most valid in my mind. Sure you're going to have people who shit on it when an upset happens, but again...those people are morons. What those morons need to look at is the percentage that each poll or rating system gets right and compare that.

No I totally agree with you that it's the best out there and it makes sense and agree it's probably just one of those statistical abnormalities in cases like the Oregon Indiana rankings that I brought up, I just find it ironic in that situation. That said I have zero issue with them and agree that its one of, if not the best, polls out there.

 

[ChosenChildren]

This is after this weekend's games...

Keep in mind this is not a voting poll popularity contest (looking at you, AP...). It's a mathematical rating system with zero bias or human intervention, and it's been academically shown to be the most accurate predictor of results over the long term than any other ranking system or poll.

For those out there suffering from laziness and who call bullshit, stop being lazy. Before you say it's bullshit do some research into it and then tell us why it's bullshit so we can debate it. In other words, no, "derp derp derp, there's no way nebraska is ahead of ISU because ISU just looks better and blah blah blah derpa derp!"

Bring something to the table.

View attachment 11614

LOVE LOVE LOVE the Sagarin ratings. No argument from me.

I firmly believe Iowa is a top 25 team right now, but they need to prove it on the field by winning 4 of the next 6 games.

That would equate to 8-4 and a very good bowl bid, although not playoff good.

That would mean victories over Minnesota and Michigan State and wins against two of the following 4:

1. Penn State (still a dangerous team)
2. @ USC
3. Oregon
4. @ Nebraska

4-2 the rest of the way will be difficult. It starts Saturday at home under the lights.

 

[Grady]

Love Sagarin and think its by far the most reliable poll out there, but for the life of me I'll never understand situations like Indiana vs. Oregon. Indiana goes to Oregon and wins by 10 yet somehow is still ranked below them. I simply don't get it. Sure there's situations where a top 10 team gets beat at home by an unranked team and still deserves to be ranked higher, but I don't see how any poll can have a top 10 undefeated team winning on the road against a top 5 team and still find a way to be ranked lower. Also don't see how a 2 loss team finds themselves at #2.
Not saying it's BS as I value their rankings higher than AP or Coaches poll its just one of those things that will always leave me scratching my head.

I don't pay attention to polls much, and could care less about any poll 'over the long run'. But when two undefeated teams play each other midway through the season, and the team that goes on the road, wins by 10 pts, and the following week is ranked lower than the actual loser -- well, that poll simply doesn't reflect reality. Which is fine, I guess, if people are into that.