Sagarin: Iowa #17

Michigan ranked #4 in recruiting in both 2016 and 2017. Only Alabama and tOSU did better. I gotta believe that's going to show-up in the results sooner or later.
You would think. Will it be 2018, 2019, or 2020? Or will Harbaugh's staff prove to be overpaid names?

You beat Tosu by what last season? I doubt, in fact I'm sure, Ferentz and friends had any recruiting classes anywhere close to Meyer's. BTW, Wisconsin was driving and less than a TD away from beating Tosu in the CCG and we've never been close recruiting wise either.
 
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Interesting. Evidently past performances don't mean much to you. Last year UM got beat by every good team they faced, and the illustrious defense was scored upon by all of them. Those teams were MSU, PSU, Wis, Tosu, and SC. The total score in those games, 131-72. UM's D is vastly overrated and its O hasn't shown much. Nor has Peterson to date.
Every team is different every season. Past performance isn't a great indicator in college football.

I can't stand Michigan, so I sincerely hope I'm wrong. It's more of a gut instinct. I just have a feeling that this is the year it comes together for that team. Anything could happen, though, since the east is stacked, as is Wisconsin.
 
Against common opponents in 2017 Michigan scored 111 and the opponents scored 131.

Against those common opponents Iowa scored 130 and the opponents scored 134.

My take would be Iowa's offense was a little better and Michigan's defense was slightly better.

I would love to see Iowa in the CCG against the Wolverines.
 
Against common opponents in 2017 Michigan scored 111 and the opponents scored 131.

Against those common opponents Iowa scored 130 and the opponents scored 134.

My take would be Iowa's offense was a little better and Michigan's defense was slightly better.

I would love to see Iowa in the CCG against the Wolverines.

Take out OSU and do the numbers.
 
My point has been that Michigan's D HAS NOT shown the quality that people have been professing over the last 8 months. They May be better in 2018 but it is NOT a given. They still have to do better against the same 5 teams that scored 132 points against them in 2017. And Wisconsin's O will be far better. Not sure of the other 4. They still have to show they have an O which was almost non-existent in 2017. And Petersen still needs to show that his HS pedigree was actually deserved after 3 seasons.
 
My point has been that Michigan's D HAS NOT shown the quality that people have been professing over the last 8 months. They May be better in 2018 but it is NOT a given. They still have to do better against the same 5 teams that scored 132 points against them in 2017. And Wisconsin's O will be far better. Not sure of the other 4. They still have to show they have an O which was almost non-existent in 2017. And Petersen still needs to show that his HS pedigree was actually deserved after 3 seasons.

Stop telling us what we should think. You want to be here to argue Wisconsin related material...fine. Your input on other teams is worth zilch. You can drop the superiority routine. Just because the team you root for is good doesn't mean your opinion is valuable.
 
My point has been that Michigan's D HAS NOT shown the quality that people have been professing over the last 8 months. They May be better in 2018 but it is NOT a given. They still have to do better against the same 5 teams that scored 132 points against them in 2017. And Wisconsin's O will be far better. Not sure of the other 4. They still have to show they have an O which was almost non-existent in 2017. And Petersen still needs to show that his HS pedigree was actually deserved after 3 seasons.
I never said it was a given.

Obviously, yes, they have to show they can do better, but that's why is called a prediction in the first place.

My "prediction," (again, based on just a gut feeling), is that, barring injury issues, they will meet expectations this season. We'll see how it plays out.
 
Stop telling us what we should think. You want to be here to argue Wisconsin related material...fine. Your input on other teams is worth zilch. You can drop the superiority routine. Just because the team you root for is good doesn't mean your opinion is valuable.
Just giving you some background, Adam, that you might not have dug deeper into yourself. Sorry if that ruffled your feathers once again.
 
He has finished better than 8-5, twice. And he did beat MSU in 2016, in addition to taking Ohio State to double overtime and losing by three points in Columbus. Two ten win seasons in a coach’s first three years isn’t bad. Michigan has consistently been a top 25 team under Harbaugh despite quarterback troubles. If our roster this year were exactly what Harbaugh has our fans would be raving about the potential. Nobody would say “yeah, but Iowa sucks until they can beat MSU!” When was the last time that you could legitimately say Iowa had, at worst, the fifth best defense in the country? What other team can have two ten win seasons and an eight win season in a three year span and still get constantly trashed for not beating Ohio State or MSU of all teams? I like to poke fun at Harbaugh as much as the next guy, but shouting that he doesn’t deserve respect until he beats those two teams is a dump proposition. I think they almost certainly beat MSU this year, but time will tell.
If he was coming off one of those ten win seasons they would be more deserving their annual preseason hype. I just don't think it is nearly as warranted after last year's November crash and burn job, which included getting trucked by Penn State and losing to Wisconsin, then seeing that vaunted #5 defense completely go up in smoke in the second half of the bowl game against South Carolina. Then again, all of us realize that preseason rankings are little more than projections and it will all play out the field. They could easily go out and whip Notre Dame this weekend, for example.
 
Take out OSU and do the numbers.
So Michigan is better w/o OSU and Iowa is worse w/o OSU. This proves what? We can't ignore that game and Sagarin's algorithm doesn't either. Iowa scored more than 30 points 5 times in 2017. Three of those teams ended up w/ winning records (one of them wasn't a P5 school). Iowa only lost one game by more than 9 points (Wisconsin). Iowa was a young, inconsistent, team that returns many proven pieces in 2018. I for one am glad his computers like us.
 
My grandfather lived 81 years a devout Cubbies fan. He never saw them win the big 1. He past away 3 years before the Cubs finally pulled it off.

Desire and reality sometimes never meet at a crossroads.

Yes I understand that, but if new ownership hadn’t happened to the Cubs then we would still be talking about the cubbies in the same sense. I was raised a cubs fan so I know how painful that was. I was so happy for my Dad (85 years old) that he got to live long enough to see it.

Just think about that for a little while. The new owner came in with the purpose to rebuild the Cubs with the intent and of making them World Series champs. It took a few years for it to happen. You could see the changes happening right before your eyes as the farm system was totally revamped. You could see it coming as the owner kept improving and changing things.

This is my point. I am hoping Brian can bring much needed change to the offense so that we can become more competitive.

Just the opposite could happen though. He can feel pressured by his father to play the standard quo conservatives offense. Does anyone really want to watch an methodical, boring, uncreative offense for several more years to come? There comes a point where blind loyalty does far more damage than it does good.

Sometimes change is necessary. It can happen from within. Brian could be a catalyst in a very positive way. I didn’t expect too much from him during his first season, but this year will reveal; like the old commercial says “what’s in your wallet” on what type of coach Brian wants to be.

It’s not hard for me to imagine ole pops sitting Brian down and telling him “Look son I know you may have some ideas you’ve seen in the NFL that you would like to instil into the offense but I strongly urge you to not take any chances. Just be very conservative and be consistent and beat the cupcakes and half of your conference games and your have a job here at Iowa that will fulfill your wildest financial goals that you have for yourself and your family.” Let’s hope that is not true but it does sound like something Kirk would tell Brian.

Change is hard for people. The AD’s in the Big Ten have it made because no matter how good or bad a program is, the millions upon millions are goi g to poor in from the Big Ten Network.

Is the cup half full or half empty? What difference does it make and why not shoot for the moon? This isn’t the same era that Hayden Fry had to deal with. Back then the money you brought in was based mostly on how successful you were. So the pressures were totally different. A Rosebowl that paid out two million dollars. A lot of it went for the travel for the bowl game and hopefully a little was left over for the athletic department. Back then that , along with revenue, and ticket sales made up your revenue. If you didn’t win you weren’t on TV much and you didn’t get to go to the bowl games.

Once upon a time the highlight of going to a Hawkeye game was staying to watch the band play at half time and then staggering your way out of the stadium to your car. Getting drummed 33-7 wasn’t a lot of fun back then. Bandwagon fan?
 
Against common opponents in 2017 Michigan scored 111 and the opponents scored 131.

Against those common opponents Iowa scored 130 and the opponents scored 134.

My take would be Iowa's offense was a little better and Michigan's defense was slightly better.

I would love to see Iowa in the CCG against the Wolverines.
This is the matchup I was hoping for in 2015, but I’ll take it now too.
 
Yes I understand that, but if new ownership hadn’t happened to the Cubs then we would still be talking about the cubbies in the same sense. I was raised a cubs fan so I know how painful that was. I was so happy for my Dad (85 years old) that he got to live long enough to see it.

Just think about that for a little while. The new owner came in with the purpose to rebuild the Cubs with the intent and of making them World Series champs. It took a few years for it to happen. You could see the changes happening right before your eyes as the farm system was totally revamped. You could see it coming as the owner kept improving and changing things.

This is my point. I am hoping Brian can bring much needed change to the offense so that we can become more competitive.

Just the opposite could happen though. He can feel pressured by his father to play the standard quo conservatives offense. Does anyone really want to watch an methodical, boring, uncreative offense for several more years to come? There comes a point where blind loyalty does far more damage than it does good.

Sometimes change is necessary. It can happen from within. Brian could be a catalyst in a very positive way. I didn’t expect too much from him during his first season, but this year will reveal; like the old commercial says “what’s in your wallet” on what type of coach Brian wants to be.

It’s not hard for me to imagine ole pops sitting Brian down and telling him “Look son I know you may have some ideas you’ve seen in the NFL that you would like to instil into the offense but I strongly urge you to not take any chances. Just be very conservative and be consistent and beat the cupcakes and half of your conference games and your have a job here at Iowa that will fulfill your wildest financial goals that you have for yourself and your family.” Let’s hope that is not true but it does sound like something Kirk would tell Brian.

Change is hard for people. The AD’s in the Big Ten have it made because no matter how good or bad a program is, the millions upon millions are goi g to poor in from the Big Ten Network.

Is the cup half full or half empty? What difference does it make and why not shoot for the moon? This isn’t the same era that Hayden Fry had to deal with. Back then the money you brought in was based mostly on how successful you were. So the pressures were totally different. A Rosebowl that paid out two million dollars. A lot of it went for the travel for the bowl game and hopefully a little was left over for the athletic department. Back then that , along with revenue, and ticket sales made up your revenue. If you didn’t win you weren’t on TV much and you didn’t get to go to the bowl games.

Once upon a time the highlight of going to a Hawkeye game was staying to watch the band play at half time and then staggering your way out of the stadium to your car. Getting drummed 33-7 wasn’t a lot of fun back then. Bandwagon fan?

I think we got an idea about Brian during that recorded tantrum.
 
Lol well I meant specifically that you would be a bandwagon fan for whatever alt team you end up rooting for just because they are championship caliber more often.

I kinda thought that’s what you meant. After all who doesn’t have other teams they cheer for especially when they are playing the crimson tide, or the buckeyes. Those teams I automatically cheer for. When the tide and buckeyes happen to play each other I kinda hope a giant sick hole would open. :cool:
 

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