RPI 262 projected 0 - 18 in conference???



Same site has ISU at #25 currently, and going 24-7 on the year.

I don't think that's happening, either. Iowa is not going to lose all their Big Ten games, and will win somewhere around 10-12 games this year.
 


CyChamp said:
Same site has ISU at #25 currently, and going 24-7 on the year.

I don't think that's happening, either. Iowa is not going to lose all their Big Ten games, and will win somewhere around 10-12 games this year.
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Pretty sure they meant 14-17 for ISU....mustve been a typo on their part
 








why do some many clones post here? i dont visit here much but it seems like there is a clone in every thread.
 


9YRPLAN said:
why do some many clones post here? i dont visit here much but it seems like there is a clone in every thread.
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I've followed the Hawks and Clones closely since I was a kid. I like to talk sports. It's funny to me that since I've been on HN, I've been told where and when to post. Geesh, usually you guys break out Big Brother in a much different context. It's not like I'm trolling here.
 






The reason they predict that we go 0-18 is because we lost to one of the worst BCS conference teams - actually worse than us. So I assume they figure how will they win in the Big Ten.
 


The site just figures based on RPI whether your team will be favored in any given matchup, and adds the most likely result of each game to come up with the record. So hypothetically, if a team were a 1-point underdog in each game, that sort of calculation would predict a winless record even though the team would actually be likely to finish with a record just a couple games under .500. It's a good method for coming up with the most likely result of a given game, but it's a statistically terrible method for coming up with a predicted season record because it doesn't include any deviation to account for the inevitable upsets that occur throughout the season. It might work okay for the teams in the middle of the pack, but it will be way off for the teams at the top and at the bottom... because a bad team still loses whether it plays exactly as normal or worse than normal, but gets an occasional win when it plays better than normal.
 
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so spank, pomeroy has us at 12 wins but winning out the rest of our OOC games?!? don't see that. also has us projected at 2 conference wins, do you agree with that? i sure hope we can pick up a couple more than that.
 


The W/L next to games dont always add up to final record, it's all stats/averages.

So KenPom has Iowa finishing 12-18, and 5-13 in conf. I can see that.
 


"Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions."
 


RPI is really going to be off for another month. Pomeroy is using pre-season "guesses" on teams as part of its formula right now, while RPI is purely based off results this year. As the season progresses Pomeroy will reduce its weighting of teams pre-season predictions and by Jan 23rd will be fully weighted based off this years results. Iowa is being buoyed right now by pre-season predictions having them in the top 100...Iowa will begin to drop rather sharply over the next month if they don't start winning some games.

Both RPI and Pomeroy are deeply flawed this early in the season. Discussing which is best is a matter of preference. I personally believe Iowa is underrated in the RPI and overrated in Pomeroy.
 






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