Rest of Season Predictions

Hawk90 said:
This continues to be a typical Fran team. Poor guard play when challenged by athletic guards, poor game time coaching, lack of mental and physical toughness. Fran blamed last night's game on the inability to shoot and make threes, forgetting that it was the big men in the first half that had the success that they went away from in the second. Look for them to win a few more games, squeak into the tourney and lose the first, or second game. Meet the new Fran same as the old Fran. Time for a change.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
Hawk90 said:
This continues to be a typical Fran team. Poor guard play when challenged by athletic guards, poor game time coaching, lack of mental and physical toughness. Fran blamed last night's game on the inability to shoot and make threes, forgetting that it was the big men in the first half that had the success that they went away from in the second. Look for them to win a few more games, squeak into the tourney and lose the first, or second game. Meet the new Fran same as the old Fran. Time for a change.
Click to expand...

They actually didn't go away from pounding the ball inside. At the start of MSU's run, Cook got the ball on the block three times in a row and had point blank shots and missed them - the TV announcers couldn't believe a those shots didn't go down - the shots seemed to defy the laws of physics by being so far down on the hoop and not going in. That is NOT forgetting the big men, that is playing to the big men and the big men not delivering (for a variety of reasons).
 
I’d the Hawks play like they did last night (7 TOs to MSUs 19) and hit 35-40% (almost all good looks) from 3 instead of 20%, they will win the next 7 games. They will not have a 2:1 FT deficiency vs anyone not MSU.
 
InGoodCo said:
lol, there was a poll on who would win last night on here, and a huge majority picked MSU. A lot of posters had Iowa going 6-6 or around that down the stretch. There was plenty reality going on and there still is. Iowa's not the best team in the country, we're all shocked.
Click to expand...
My posts in this thread all stand. I had last night's game as doubtful...the least chance of winning out of the final 12. I thought we would split last night and MN and then split the next 2. I still think that's the case.
 
FirstDownHawkeyes said:
I’d the Hawks play like they did last night (7 TOs to MSUs 19) and hit 35-40% (almost all good looks) from 3 instead of 20%, they will win the next 7 games. They will not have a 2:1 FT deficiency vs anyone not MSU.
Click to expand...
I agree on the FTs. And MSU is the only team in the conference that has our depth.

We led at halftime and the free throw discrepancy had already happened the entire 1st half. But our defensive intensity was incredible. The 2nd half looked like last season. We started missing shots and completely quit defending. Iowa had to be reminded that they can't take a break against an elite team. The 2nd half should be the reminder they needed. And the 1st half should show them what they can be with an all out 40 minute effort.
 
Iowa has zero road games against the top 4 teams in the conference. Half of our losses on the season are to MSU...no shame in that. We lost at Purdue without Garza...no shame in that. We only play Michigan and Maryland once...both on our floor. Things look just fine moving forward.
 
4-7 rest of the way to get to 20-11 (9-11) and squarely on the NCAA bubble. Just a lot of tough games left.

I know Iowa beat NW and PSU on the road, but those teams are 3-13 between them, so am not sure that is necessarily proof that Iowa has become a good road team.

Wins: NW, @Rutgers, Indiana, Rutgers
Losses: @MN, Michigan, @Indiana, Maryland, @OSU, @WIS, @Nebby

My pick is probably the pessimistic view. I could see maybe 6-5 best case. That would be 22-9 (11-9) then the Hawks are dancing for sure IMO.

We shall see. Prove me wrong, Hawks.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
4-7 rest of the way to get to 20-11 (9-11) and squarely on the NCAA bubble. Just a lot of tough games left.

I know Iowa beat NW and PSU on the road, but those teams are 3-13 between them, so am not sure that is necessarily proof that Iowa has become a good road team.

We shall see. Prove me wrong, Hawks.
Click to expand...
We beat those 2 teams on the road without Cook. That's why I think we can win any road game left on the schedule...zero remaining against the top 4 teams in the conference.

I see games on the schedule that could go either way. But I will be absolutely stunned if we are worse than 11-9 barring injuries. That's my floor if we are healthy. Half of our season losses are to Michigan State and we're done with them.

Final thought...Our record in close games is outstanding. I don't see a blowout loss the rest of the way which bodes well for us IMO.
 
WindsorHawk said:
We beat those 2 teams on the road without Cook. That's why I think we can win any road game left on the schedule...zero remaining against the top 4 teams in the conference.

I see games on the schedule that could go either way. But I will be absolutely stunned if we are worse than 11-9 barring injuries. That's my floor if we are healthy. Half of our season losses are to Michigan State and we're done with them.

Final thought...Our record in close games is outstanding. I don't see a blowout loss the rest of the way which bodes well for us IMO.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right. I modified my post to say my pick was on the pessimistic side (under-promise and over-deliver kind of a theory) and that I could see maybe 6-5 as more of a best case, which would hit your 11-9+.

My losses included a lot of road games. To go better than 11-9, A lot of those would have to flip to W's and I just don't see it. Either that, or they've got to pull a couple larger upsets against Michigan and/or Maryland.

I agree that most of the games are winnable.. Just don't see Iowa winning the majority of them. I'd say an approximate split is probably closer to the truth.

We shall see.
 
Last edited:
1977Hawkeye said:
I hope you are right. I modified my post to say my pick was on the pessimistic side (under-promise and over-deliver kind of a theory) and that I could see maybe 6-5 as more of a best case, which would hit your 11-9+.

To go better than 11-9.. My losses included a lot of road games. A lot of those would have to flip to W's and I just don't see it. Either that, or they've got to pull a couple larger upsets against Michigan and/or Maryland.

I agree that most of the games are winnable.. Just don't see Iowa winning the majority of them. I'd say an approximate split is probably closer to the truth.

We shall see.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. Here's my take.

@MN (terrible from 3 and the line which plays right into our strengths)

@IN (lost 5 in a row...likely 6 a few hours from now and lost at home by 15 to NE and by 7 at NW and only won by 8 at home against IL in their last win)

@RUT (we won at NW and PSU without Cook...enough said)

@OSU (lost 5 in a row including 3 home games and lost @ Rutgers)

@WI (less than 50% chance of winning)

@NE (less than 50% chance of winning)
 
WindsorHawk said:
Fair enough. Here's my take.

@MN (terrible from 3 and the line which plays right into our strengths)

@IN (lost 5 in a row...likely 6 a few hours from now and lost at home by 15 to NE and by 7 at NW and only won by 8 at home against IL in their last win)

@RUT (we won at NW and PSU without Cook...enough said)

@OSU (lost 5 in a row including 3 home games and lost @ Rutgers)

@WI (less than 50% chance of winning)

@NE (less than 50% chance of winning)
Click to expand...

I've got Iowa winning @Rutgers. I'd agree that IN and OSU are the likeliest road W's based on NOW. But road games are road games.. Never easy.

Yeah, I'm just not sold yet. Win at Minnesota in the next game, then I'll be more inclined to jump to your side of the fence. ;)
 
@MN
MI
@IN
(0-3)

NW
@RUT
MD
IN
(3-1)

@OSU
RUT
@WI
@NE
(1-3)

The pessimist in me would say this. The good news is there are plenty of chances to pick up an extra win or two to get us to the 10-11 win mark and send us to the dance. We still haven’t proved we can beat a tournament level team on the road, and at Rutgers isn’t a gimme by any means. If we do lose some games people will say Fran’s team fell apart again, but in reality the schedule for the last 12 is fairly daunting.
 
WindsorHawk said:
Our daunting late season schedule is looking less daunting with each passing week of the season. We are playing well. And some teams that many of us thought were really good don't appear to be all that scary. Here are the remaining games.

MSU
@MN
MI
@IN
NW
@RUT
MD
IN
@OSU
RUT
@WI
@NE

When we were 0-3 I thought we would win 5 in a row and then win go 7-5 the rest of the way. The fact that we have gone 5-0 (2 on the road without Cook) has me questioning my projection down the stretch...as possibly being too conservative. There is no game left on the schedule that I would mark down as an automatic loss...like the road games at MSU and PU (minus Garza) were IMO. I see games I think would be upsets if we won. But I don't see any definite losses. Now that we are 5-3 and we have seen more of other teams in the conference what are people thinking? For the sake of fairness projections made after the MSU game don't count as it relates to this thread.

Next 4...2-2
Middle 4...4-0
Last 4...2-2

So...as of today...I have us at 8-4 ROS; 13-7 in the Big 10; and 24-7 overall.
Click to expand...

i was thinking 12-8: losses to MSU/MI/MD/@ either IU or OSU. wins over the rest.
 
6-2 is my new production. If the team that has played this whole season continues to play this way the last 8 games (how is there only 8 games left) we should go 6-2 on average. If they continue to get better or catch some breaks, who knows.
 
5-3. Balancing overexpectation with pessimism.

Whatever happens, I think Iowa is lock for the Dance before the BTT even gets bracketed.
 
HawksMN said:
5-3. Balancing overexpectation with pessimism.

Whatever happens, I think Iowa is lock for the Dance before the BTT even gets bracketed.
Click to expand...


Honestly, I heard a guy here in Omaha talking about the bubble on 1620 The Zone yesterday (not an Iowa guy, I think he runs something called TK Brackets) and this was BEFORE last night's win, he said Iowa could almost lose out and still be in because of their wins. I don't know that I believe him, but they might be a lock now.
 
InGoodCo said:
Honestly, I heard a guy here in Omaha talking about the bubble on 1620 The Zone yesterday (not an Iowa guy, I think he runs something called TK Brackets) and this was BEFORE last night's win, he said Iowa could almost lose out and still be in because of their wins. I don't know that I believe him, but they might be a lock now.
Click to expand...

I wonder if that's the guy they were talking about on a podcast. That was a guy who does the CBS bracket. If it wasnt the same guy, that means two people have said the same thing. I also don't believe it but it shows how bad this year's bubble is.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top