A few of the variables, in no particular order, when it comes to "successful recruiting."
1. Distance from a recruit's home to the school recruiting him.
2. Parental influence (see #1).
3. Analysis by the coaching staff as to needs at various positions.
4. The recruit's ability to be enrolled from an academic standpoint.
5. The recruit's direction toward a particular major.
6. Personal connection to the school, i.e., relatives, friends, legacy.
7. Number of times a recruit can visit your campus...recall that only 1 official, expenses paid visit is allowed.
(see #1)
8. How much time and effort a coaching staff actually commits to a recruit.
9. Personality match between the major recruiter and the recruit.
10. Stability of the coaching staff (look at the number of de-commits when a coaching change occurs)
11. Familiarity over a historical time period in the recruit's life with the school recruiting him, i.e., how familiar is a typical California recruit with Iowa City and the University of Iowa?
12. The recruiting team's record, probably short term...these are kids.
13. The character checks done by the coaching staff on the recruit.
14. The maturity of the recruit when a difficult decision faces him. (see #2)
15. A bunch of other stuff, called additional intervening variables, that we cannot even guess about.
Point is? Assign numerical values to each of the above and whatever else you can think of and then you will see why I just cannot figure out a neat formula for success/failure in the recruiting world. Can you? I am just not a big believer in "our coaching staff is lousy at recruiting."