Program Expectations and Reality

[WindsorHawk]

1 – Fran inherited a dead program…being generous even calling it a program.
2 – Fran took what he could get for recruits coming in his 1st year and worked to retain the committed players.
3 – Fran signed some guys with potential in his 1st true recruiting class…Oglesby, Olaseni and White.
4 – In his 2nd recruiting class Fran signed 2 four star players…Gesell and Woodbury. He also signed some guys with potential…Clemmons, Meyer and Ingram. He got a very talented transfer...4 star recruit.
5 – Fran signed 1 three star player (Jok) that filled a need and had a lot of upside.
6 – Fran worked his tail off to land his 1st five star and had him until Kentucky came calling. He still landed a 3 star (Uhl) that everyone in the recruiting world thought was going to Temple. He signed a shooter (Ellingson) and a JC PG…2 guys with potential upside.
7 – Fran signed 1 four star and 3 three star players…and got us back in Chicago.
8 – Fran already has some underclassmen verbally committed.

Note – I used ESPN’s rankings…just to be consistent not because they are necessarily right or wrong.


So to be as brief as possible this is how I see it…just my opinion. Fran gets a pass for year 1 on his record and recruits. The White and Gesell classes were brought in to turn Iowa into a winning program and ultimately get us back into the NCAA Tournament. These are the transition classes/years. It wasn’t fair to expect the world but progress was expected. Fran and these 2 classes had to take Iowa from nowhere to something. And they have done this…NIT – NIT Championship Game – NCAA – NCAA (as of today’s projected brackets).

Jok, Uthoff, Uhl and future classes are supposed to not only get into the NCAA the majority of the time but win some games and make some noise. It remains to be seen if this will happen. And it will be totally subjective by individual if these classes ultimately meet expectations…NCAA every year, Sweet 16, etc. But IMO Iowa is right where I hoped they would be when we hired Fran. We’re in the NCAA tournament and/or conversation late in the season for the 3rd consecutive year. And I view this season as somewhere between transition and established/arrived program.

Like most everyone else I expect us to be in the NCAA Tournament regularly moving forward. I expect us to win some games in the tournament. I expect us to finish in the top 4 of the conference standings about 50% of the time. Let’s stay the course and see what happens…this year and the next couple of years. From my perspective things are right on schedule.

 

[tksirius]

My son, you make me proud.

 

[1hawkeye1]

Thank you for a breath of fresh air. I agree with most of what you said.

 

[homes]

A reasonable assessment up to now. But more middle of the pack seasons going forward and Iowa is just treading water. Starting this year, they need to step up their performance, both in conference and into the NCAA tournament on a regular basis. No more excuses.

 

[BlackGold57]

1 – Fran inherited a dead program…being generous even calling it a program.
2 – Fran took what he could get for recruits coming in his 1st year and worked to retain the committed players.
3 – Fran signed some guys with potential in his 1st true recruiting class…Oglesby, Olaseni and White.
4 – In his 2nd recruiting class Fran signed 2 four star players…Gesell and Woodbury. He also signed some guys with potential…Clemmons, Meyer and Ingram. He got a very talented transfer...4 star recruit.
5 – Fran signed 1 three star player (Jok) that filled a need and had a lot of upside.
6 – Fran worked his tail off to land his 1st five star and had him until Kentucky came calling. He still landed a 3 star (Uhl) that everyone in the recruiting world thought was going to Temple. He signed a shooter (Ellingson) and a JC PG…2 guys with potential upside.
7 – Fran signed 1 four star and 3 three star players…and got us back in Chicago.
8 – Fran already has some underclassmen verbally committed.

Note – I used ESPN’s rankings…just to be consistent not because they are necessarily right or wrong.


So to be as brief as possible this is how I see it…just my opinion. Fran gets a pass for year 1 on his record and recruits. The White and Gesell classes were brought in to turn Iowa into a winning program and ultimately get us back into the NCAA Tournament. These are the transition classes/years. It wasn’t fair to expect the world but progress was expected. Fran and these 2 classes had to take Iowa from nowhere to something. And they have done this…NIT – NIT Championship Game – NCAA – NCAA (as of today’s projected brackets).

Jok, Uthoff, Uhl and future classes are supposed to not only get into the NCAA the majority of the time but win some games and make some noise. It remains to be seen if this will happen. And it will be totally subjective by individual if these classes ultimately meet expectations…NCAA every year, Sweet 16, etc. But IMO Iowa is right where I hoped they would be when we hired Fran. We’re in the NCAA tournament and/or conversation late in the season for the 3rd consecutive year. And I view this season as somewhere between transition and established/arrived program.

Like most everyone else I expect us to be in the NCAA Tournament regularly moving forward. I expect us to win some games in the tournament. I expect us to finish in the top 4 of the conference standings about 50% of the time. Let’s stay the course and see what happens…this year and the next couple of years. From my perspective things are right on schedule.

The level of your expectations are why the Iowa Athletic program struggles to compete with UNI and Iowa St. Enough excuses about Lickliter. That was 5 years ago and he got at least two good recruits from him in Marble and McCabe. New facilities now as well. Is it helping?

 

[DP5555]

1 – Fran inherited a dead program…being generous even calling it a program.
2 – Fran took what he could get for recruits coming in his 1st year and worked to retain the committed players.
3 – Fran signed some guys with potential in his 1st true recruiting class…Oglesby, Olaseni and White.
4 – In his 2nd recruiting class Fran signed 2 four star players…Gesell and Woodbury. He also signed some guys with potential…Clemmons, Meyer and Ingram. He got a very talented transfer...4 star recruit.
5 – Fran signed 1 three star player (Jok) that filled a need and had a lot of upside.
6 – Fran worked his tail off to land his 1st five star and had him until Kentucky came calling. He still landed a 3 star (Uhl) that everyone in the recruiting world thought was going to Temple. He signed a shooter (Ellingson) and a JC PG…2 guys with potential upside.
7 – Fran signed 1 four star and 3 three star players…and got us back in Chicago.
8 – Fran already has some underclassmen verbally committed.

Note – I used ESPN’s rankings…just to be consistent not because they are necessarily right or wrong.


So to be as brief as possible this is how I see it…just my opinion. Fran gets a pass for year 1 on his record and recruits. The White and Gesell classes were brought in to turn Iowa into a winning program and ultimately get us back into the NCAA Tournament. These are the transition classes/years. It wasn’t fair to expect the world but progress was expected. Fran and these 2 classes had to take Iowa from nowhere to something. And they have done this…NIT – NIT Championship Game – NCAA – NCAA (as of today’s projected brackets).

Jok, Uthoff, Uhl and future classes are supposed to not only get into the NCAA the majority of the time but win some games and make some noise. It remains to be seen if this will happen. And it will be totally subjective by individual if these classes ultimately meet expectations…NCAA every year, Sweet 16, etc. But IMO Iowa is right where I hoped they would be when we hired Fran. We’re in the NCAA tournament and/or conversation late in the season for the 3rd consecutive year. And I view this season as somewhere between transition and established/arrived program.

Like most everyone else I expect us to be in the NCAA Tournament regularly moving forward. I expect us to win some games in the tournament. I expect us to finish in the top 4 of the conference standings about 50% of the time. Let’s stay the course and see what happens…this year and the next couple of years. From my perspective things are right on schedule.

I agree with your assessment. I think it is pretty accurate as far as expectations go. It isn't fair to throw Fran under the bus until we see how they finish this season out. If he manages to get them into the tournament then I will remain happy with the direction of the program. If not, I'm going to be extremely disappointed and the doubts that I have now will be confirmed.

The biggest issue I have with the basketball program right now is the fact that they haven't shown any type of consistency. They have no mental toughness. They've shown flashes of how good they are capable of being, and then they completely lose their composure. Those tendencies fall on coaching in my opinion. There's nothing else you can really point to. A coach is supposed to have his players ready to play, and he needs to teach them toughness and the ability to play at their highest level on a consistent basis. The fact Fran hasn't figured that out yet is very troubling to me. This isn't an inexperienced team yet they are still playing like one. They are far too fragile for me to have any sort of faith in them, and at this point in Fran's tenure I believe they should be over this stage.

 

[deanvogs]

The reality is a program in years 3, 4 & 5 Iowa should be hitting their stride. It seems that maybe instead of that, Fran hit his ceiling in mid season in year 4. The fact is Fran HAS to get to the dance this year, as I don't see them going in year 6. Going to the NCAA's 2 out of 4 years while it isn't ideal, it certainly isn't fire-able.....staying at home 3 out of 4 years is absolutely unacceptable, I don't think anyone would argue with that.

I am throwing out years 1 and 2 because of the crater that Lick left (although we might bag on Lick, just think where we would be at now if he didn't leave us with Marble)

 

[BlackGold57]

Here is some simple information after spending 5 minutes. Tim Miles takes over Colorado State after a 7-25 year, in NCAA tourney in year 5. Takes over Nebby, in NCAA tourney in year 2. Shaka Smart takes over a VCU team, in second year in Final Four, in NCAA each of next 4 years.

If you are looking to crawl, before you even walk, keep after it. Not everybody is satisfied with that and there are numerous examples of coaches taking over bad programs and elevating them quickly or immediately impacting recruiting. Look at Tennessee football after two bad coaching hires and where they are headed, and please spare me the SEC excuse. A first year coach spanked the $4 million dollar man.

 

[DDThompson]

The level of your expectations are why the Iowa Athletic program struggles to compete with UNI and Iowa St. Enough excuses about Lickliter. That was 5 years ago and he got at least two good recruits from him in Marble and McCabe. New facilities now as well. Is it helping?

What? UNI and ISU expect Sweet 16s most years?

You are not being realistic about how far iowa's program fell into a black hole. Fran pulled the (non)star-ship hawkeyes out of the black hole. The only other person to do that is James T Kirk. And Scott Drew (but he had a couple of players).

 

[BlackGold57]

What? UNI and ISU expect Sweet 16s most years?

You are not being realistic about how far iowa's program fell into a black hole. Fran pulled the (non)star-ship hawkeyes out of the black hole. The only other person to do that is James T Kirk. And Scott Drew (but he had a couple of players).

I am plenty realistic. Go do some simple homework on coaches taking over programs. For goodness sake's people, Iowa is where they are partly because of the teams, coaches, athletic director and president, but also because fans are happy being average.

 

[MiniMoeHawk]

Players should continue to improve their skills each year....Most of Iowa's players have not improved. Fran needs to bring leaders who want the ball at the end of the game. It appears to me that we might have already seen the best of Fran unless he brings in players who can run a half court gameplan.

Iowa struggles in the halfcourt set, they lack the fundamentals of setting solid screens and feeding the post. If they are not forcing turnovers or transtion baskets then they struggle to score. That is why the bottom feeders like NW can stick around with Iowa. If they limit their mistakes they are always in the game with a chance to win.

The team is only treading water right now....Next year will be more of the same. Hopefully next years batch of recruits has some mentally tough kids who can shoot the ball. If not, Iowa will be on the bubble again next year.

 

[theboat]

What? UNI and ISU expect Sweet 16s most years?

You are not being realistic about how far iowa's program fell into a black hole. Fran pulled the (non)star-ship hawkeyes out of the black hole. The only other person to do that is James T Kirk. And Scott Drew (but he had a couple of players).

You are just repeating the overplayed narrative. You act like Iowa was the worst program ever but that isn't the case. Yes Lickliter failed, but as I said in a different thread, Iowa had a better 5 year run prior to Fran than ISU had prior to Fred. Yet, you don't hear Fred and fans still blaming the McDermott years. Why is that? Because they are actually winning.

Basketball is not football. Football is very hard to pull a program up from the bottom because of how much is involved.

Basketball can be turned in 1 year with a couple of players. 2-3 years for a location like Iowa is perfectly reasonable. Iowa/Fran is in year 5 and starting down the slide again and losing their most productive player. Maybe this recruiting class will finally stick, but forgive me if I have my doubts.

What I see are "shooters" who can't shoot. Big men who can't hold onto the ball in the paint. Guards that can't create their own shots or shots for those around them. And a team that doesn't seem to care that they are embarrassing to watch.

People thought Marble was an offense killer last year, but it turns out he was the only offense savior on the team.

If this team continues down this path again this season, then the Fran experiment has failed. Thank goodness we have Barta though so he can get an extension.

 

[SteveGarvey]

Players should continue to improve their skills each year....Most of Iowa's players have not improved. Fran needs to bring leaders who want the ball at the end of the game. It appears to me that we might have already seen the best of Fran unless he brings in players who can run a half court gameplan.

Iowa struggles in the halfcourt set, they lack the fundamentals of setting solid screens and feeding the post. If they are not forcing turnovers or transtion baskets then they struggle to score. That is why the bottom feeders like NW can stick around with Iowa. If they limit their mistakes they are always in the game with a chance to win.

The team is only treading water right now....Next year will be more of the same. Hopefully next years batch of recruits has some mentally tough kids who can shoot the ball. If not, Iowa will be on the bubble again next year.

We're actually doing better this year than I expected to this point, despite the last two ugly losses. I was thinking 7-11 in the conference with the lack of talent we have in the backcourt. In a sense, Fran exceeds expectations based on talent. In a sense, he's performing below expectations because why hasn't he landed better players?

 

[1977Hawkeye]

The OP's points are exactly why I think Fran deserves at least couple more years. From where he took it, he has done enough to earn a chance to see how far he can take it the next couple years.

That said, if we've already seen the ceiling, then no, I am not happy with that. NIT's and a "first four" loss - that is not this program's ceiling. Any program in the Big Ten, save maybe for Northwestern, should expect to be able to exceed that if they have the right coaching staff, IMO.

The jury is still out on this year. Make the dance, and I'm good for now. Collapse and end up in the NIT again, then my patience will have worn a bit thin.

Fran has made a lot of progress compared to Lick, but not quite enough just yet.

There's my 2 cents.

 

[theboat]

Fran has made a lot of progress compared to Lick, but not quite enough just yet.

If you race a fat 3-legged dog against a dead dog, the 3-legged dog will win but that don't make him fast.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

If you race a fat 3-legged dog against a dead dog, the 3-legged dog will win but that don't make him fast.

That's why I'm not all-in on Fran just yet. I just think he's done enough to earn more time, but if we aren't dancing regularly the next few years, I'll want a change. Just don't want to pull the plug too soon.

 

[hawkfan340]

Couple of unrelated things that I think are affecting the evaluation of the program:

1) Negativity flowing over from the football program. I think fans are extremely wary taking a wait-and-see approach due to continued downtrend of the football program after early warning signs years ago. We are very gun-shy of another coach hanging around, doing a general poor job as the program wilts. It's not really fair to the basketball team, but the mood is sour and guarded in terms of Hawkeye sports, in large part due to the football team.

2) Over the same time period as we've experienced a general uptrend in the bball program, ISU has experienced a rather extraordinary surge in theirs. I think the outcome they've achieved is very atypical of an average coaching change, but the results are the results. In hindsight Fred and his approach worked out fantastic for them. An analogy: in the grand scheme of things a person should feel good about a promotion he received at work, but it's tough to feel too happy when in the same week your neighbor hit the lottobucks. I think that type of effect may be at play here.

 

[Xerxes]

1 – Fran inherited a dead program…being generous even calling it a program.
2 – Fran took what he could get for recruits coming in his 1st year and worked to retain the committed players.
3 – Fran signed some guys with potential in his 1st true recruiting class…Oglesby, Olaseni and White.
4 – In his 2nd recruiting class Fran signed 2 four star players…Gesell and Woodbury. He also signed some guys with potential…Clemmons, Meyer and Ingram. He got a very talented transfer...4 star recruit.
5 – Fran signed 1 three star player (Jok) that filled a need and had a lot of upside.
6 – Fran worked his tail off to land his 1st five star and had him until Kentucky came calling. He still landed a 3 star (Uhl) that everyone in the recruiting world thought was going to Temple. He signed a shooter (Ellingson) and a JC PG…2 guys with potential upside.
7 – Fran signed 1 four star and 3 three star players…and got us back in Chicago.
8 – Fran already has some underclassmen verbally committed.

Note – I used ESPN’s rankings…just to be consistent not because they are necessarily right or wrong.


So to be as brief as possible this is how I see it…just my opinion. Fran gets a pass for year 1 on his record and recruits. The White and Gesell classes were brought in to turn Iowa into a winning program and ultimately get us back into the NCAA Tournament. These are the transition classes/years. It wasn’t fair to expect the world but progress was expected. Fran and these 2 classes had to take Iowa from nowhere to something. And they have done this…NIT – NIT Championship Game – NCAA – NCAA (as of today’s projected brackets).

Jok, Uthoff, Uhl and future classes are supposed to not only get into the NCAA the majority of the time but win some games and make some noise. It remains to be seen if this will happen. And it will be totally subjective by individual if these classes ultimately meet expectations…NCAA every year, Sweet 16, etc. But IMO Iowa is right where I hoped they would be when we hired Fran. We’re in the NCAA tournament and/or conversation late in the season for the 3rd consecutive year. And I view this season as somewhere between transition and established/arrived program.

Like most everyone else I expect us to be in the NCAA Tournament regularly moving forward. I expect us to win some games in the tournament. I expect us to finish in the top 4 of the conference standings about 50% of the time. Let’s stay the course and see what happens…this year and the next couple of years. From my perspective things are right on schedule.

Very good post. Nice perspective. At the same time, I don't blame a single fan for having a meltdown on Sunday afternoon and jumping off the Fran bandwagon.

That was a bad Northwestern team (which is saying a lot) that wasn't playing out of their minds. They missed a lot of shots and looked clueless for stretches in that game. You just can't lose games like that and expect to build a program and unfortunately for Fran there has been a lot of, "You just can't lose" type games that he's lost over the last 3 seasons. At some point you would think he would start winning some of those games.

 

[ArvadaHawk]

If you race a fat 3-legged dog against a dead dog, the 3-legged dog will win but that don't make him fast.

But the fat 3-legged dog is faster and, since it has a pulse, has a chance. We had no pulse under lackluster. The only chance we had was to lose and then have our best players transfer.

 

[DJL]

It really is crazy to me on both the football and basketball boards there are people who truly seem to be okay with mediocre, or are sure that somehow things will turn around. I really do try to be positive in day to day life, but the state of both programs is not good. Unrealistic expectations would be expecting elite 8s and Final Fours once every couple of years. The people who are "negative" are just expecting us to get into the tournament (for real). You don't even really have to be that good to get in. Have you seen the bubble teams? I know Iowa was horrible before, but 5 years is a long time in the basketball world. We still have some games left this season, but if we keep going down this path, I have no idea how you can keep Fran around. He won't be fired this year, but if next year goes the same way, he's gone.