Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Purdue
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
A 2.5 point line is shit. Conventional betting wisdom is that the home team is spotted 3 points, meaning Vegas thinks Purdue is better than Iowa. I get that the line moves with the betting and Vegas is smart and all, but given performances to date, Iowa has the better resume on paper. The question here is was the Illinois game a fluke or is Purdue finding its footing. The secondary question is did Illinois overachieve last year and is regressing to the mean of its low talent team. Tomorrow night's slap fight in Champagne should tell us what we should think of Purdue beating Illinois.
I will stick with Iowa wins this one by at least a touchdown. In Hill, I (gulp) trust.
I will stick with Iowa wins this one by at least a touchdown. In Hill, I (gulp) trust.
This is about the time of the week I start getting my hopes up. Late Thursday. Only one more day of work. Starting to feel good about a few days away from work. You know. Endorphins.
A different QB with a few more playbook options. A returning RB.
Looking at all those defensive and special teams stats, figuring there's maybe two or more picks easily possible and good field position....
Since prognosticating scores is a complete crapshoot, this is about the time where I say something like 32-13, Iowa. But, I promised after the Ohio State game to completely stop getting my hopes up.....and I broke that promise over the summer and into this season, I'm going to hold true....
I'm going to go 27-13 Purdue. No, wait...24-16 Purdue
Also, yes, I'm throwing out like 3 different scores covering a couple different outcomes. So I can come back and selectively requote myself and look like a genius. I'll tell you which my official projection was on Saturday. Well, probably Sunday. I'm going to see my favorite college band from the 90s on Saturday night. The Samples. Still touring. Lately with 3 of the 4 (or 5, depending on whether you want to count the guy who went on to produce The Cove after the first album) of the 'original' members. Definitely an original member, but only there for the first album.
A different QB with a few more playbook options. A returning RB.
Looking at all those defensive and special teams stats, figuring there's maybe two or more picks easily possible and good field position....
Since prognosticating scores is a complete crapshoot, this is about the time where I say something like 32-13, Iowa. But, I promised after the Ohio State game to completely stop getting my hopes up.....and I broke that promise over the summer and into this season, I'm going to hold true....
I'm going to go 27-13 Purdue. No, wait...24-16 Purdue
Also, yes, I'm throwing out like 3 different scores covering a couple different outcomes. So I can come back and selectively requote myself and look like a genius. I'll tell you which my official projection was on Saturday. Well, probably Sunday. I'm going to see my favorite college band from the 90s on Saturday night. The Samples. Still touring. Lately with 3 of the 4 (or 5, depending on whether you want to count the guy who went on to produce The Cove after the first album) of the 'original' members. Definitely an original member, but only there for the first album.
NCHawker
Well-Known Member
Well hard to figure, PSU scored 31. Purdue is competent on offense...maybe more explosive than PSU? in a way yes and in a way no. So far purdue scored:
Fresno state 34/
Va Tech 24
Syracuse 20
Wisconsin 17
Illinois- 44
As I type this now I'm thinking they're not as explosive as I kinda thought. Iowa should hold them to 21 tops. or maybe just 3 FGs !! Now can Iowa score two TDs a FG and a special teams or defense TD? If so, then HAWKS win
Fresno state 34/
Va Tech 24
Syracuse 20
Wisconsin 17
Illinois- 44
As I type this now I'm thinking they're not as explosive as I kinda thought. Iowa should hold them to 21 tops. or maybe just 3 FGs !! Now can Iowa score two TDs a FG and a special teams or defense TD? If so, then HAWKS win
eyekwah
Well-Known Member
For Iowa to win it needs to score 24 points against Purdue. In Purdue's 3 losses it was against teams that have better defenses than them, a lot better defenses. Iowa's defense currently is ranked 27th by the NCAA. I think it is deceiving because of the offensive debacle against PSU. It is probably higher ranked if you don't have to play 97 plays on defense.
The median offensive score for Purdue is 20 points. I expect Iowa can hold them to no more than 20. When it comes to the Iowa offense they will be going against a team that is well below where Iowa's defense is ranked. I can't say I have confidence that Iowa can reach 24 points.
Saturday, weather will be a factor. It is predicted to be a game time temperature around 50 with NW winds at 14 mph with gust. Which team can muster a rushing game probably comes out the winner. If Purdue is able to put 8 men within 5 yards of the LOS they will win. Now that Iowa is playing with a two legged QB Purdue may not be able to stack the LOS. I'll go Iowa 21 Purdue 20.
The median offensive score for Purdue is 20 points. I expect Iowa can hold them to no more than 20. When it comes to the Iowa offense they will be going against a team that is well below where Iowa's defense is ranked. I can't say I have confidence that Iowa can reach 24 points.
Saturday, weather will be a factor. It is predicted to be a game time temperature around 50 with NW winds at 14 mph with gust. Which team can muster a rushing game probably comes out the winner. If Purdue is able to put 8 men within 5 yards of the LOS they will win. Now that Iowa is playing with a two legged QB Purdue may not be able to stack the LOS. I'll go Iowa 21 Purdue 20.
kicker22
Well-Known Member
Agree with you on Purdue potentially being more competent on offense and possibly more explosive then PSU. However, is Purdue's defense good enough to keep our offense off the field to wear our defense out like PSU did. I think our defense will look much better against Purdue then they did against PSU simply because I don't think our lack of offense and inability to move the chains more then 4 times will allow our defense to get that beat down and worn out.
I see them scoring somewhere between 17 and 24. I think 25 pts. on offense is once again our magic number. Do that and I think we hold them off and win a close one at home.
Well the "experts" say Purdue has advantage on Offense and we have it on Defense, Kicking and Special teams. No surprises there
so what are the keys?
Iowa defense has to be more aggressive. We have been good but not dominant. Still cant believe we have 0 sacks against power 5 teams. Has to change maybe with safety blitzes
Iowa offense is not going to suddenly become effective running the ball. With our offensive line I'm not sure Jim Brown could run (if he were alive)
I think it may boil down to big plays vs interceptions in the passing game. After watching the big guy throw in the spring he is more than capable of either
Teddy
Well-Known Member
Ironically, Iowa rushed for 181 yards and the top two rushers has 7.9 ypc and 5.7 ypc.
I think 6 sacks for like -50 yards. Winning ugly is still winning.
trj
Well-Known Member
What is ironic is that Drew Stevens had a shitty game.
Tell that to Texas fans, LOL.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
Purdue should have tried an onside kick.
Most never work anymore but our percentages of recovering them in the Kirk era have got to be among the worst in college football.
Most never work anymore but our percentages of recovering them in the Kirk era have got to be among the worst in college football.
Teddy
Well-Known Member
There were 65 games this week in Div 1A. In how many of those games did a team overcome a 2TD lead to win? Then factor in throwing against a ball hawking defense, a D line that usually brings maximum pressure (like yesterday). When was the last time that happened to Iowa? That might happen 2 maybe 3 times a decade.
Teddy
Well-Known Member
That sounds like a myth; even less likely than overcoming a 2 TD Iowa 4th quarter lead. I cannot remember the last time Iowa lost an onside kick. Has it been in the roaring 20's? Do we have to go back more than 5 years to find one?
Does your conclusion even make sense? Iowa fields among the best special teams in the country and have since KF arrived. Why would Iowa be worse at fielding onside kicks than almost everyone when the team is superior in every other aspect of special teams play?
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I dont go back to the roaring 20's but I go back to 2005. Idetntical situation. Iowa up on Northwestern by 13 late. Northwestern scores, recovers onside kick with about 1:30 left, scores again and wins by one. That game was on my mind yesterday when Purdue was knocking on the goal line.
Minnesota pulled them off two years in a row, 2010 and 2011. They were instrumental in Iowa losses, two years in a row.
My conclusion makes all the sense in the world because I saw it cost us games with my own two eyes. We won't even get into Shaun Beyer in the 2018 Wisconsin game, which cost us another win and might as well been another onside kick. Still the dumbest play I've ever seen an Iowa player make, bar none (maybe second ro the Parker kick return in the 2014 TaxSlayer bowl)
I wasn't disagreeing with your post. I was poking fun at the fact that one of the rare times it happens, it happened to a fan base that deserved it for the most part.
guffus
Well-Known Member
Even worse is what happened to Miami against GT
Teddy
Well-Known Member
Now I'm down for that one. Watching Iowa bury Texas in the 84 Freedom bowl is one of my favorite memories of Hayden.
I worked the 2004 election with a whole bunch of Texans. "Hook 'em Horns" got really old.
