Phil Steele's Top 10

[cuinknk]

I'm no expert, but I do know this. Any other team in Notre Dame's situation would NOT be rated this high. Sure, it's possible to lose both one of the country's best qb's and of the best wide recievers in the same year and come out and be much better then you were the year before, but it's not likely.

It's pretty smart business to rank them high. There's a ton of Notre Dame fans. No matter how accurate your predictions are, they're gonna buy your mag if you rank them high.

That's exactly it, IMO.

 

[hawkaddict]

Where do we score some of what Steele's smokin? Does he know Suh's playing fb on Sunday's this fall?

 

[nickhawk]

Couple of head scratchers on Phil's initial poll:

I don't think Oregon is a top 10 team without Masoli.
I don't think Miami, FL will be a top 10 team and I think they get thumped by Ohio St.
Nebraska is way over-rated - they might be top 15, not top 5 material

My version of the Top 10 Preseason Poll:
1. Alabama
2. OSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Florida
7. USC
8. Iowa
9. Texas
10. Auburn

Next 5:
11. North Carolina
12. Virginia Tech
13. Nebraska
14. Wisconsin
15. Miami, FL

 

[cloneu]

I don't have a problem if Boise or TCU makes a BCS game IF these teams play an OOC schedule that actually resembles a major college program. Scheduling one game against a mid-pack power conference team doesn't mean squat. And please don't give me some line about bigger programs not wanting to play them. This would guarantee to be a nationally televised game and no program would turn that down - not even Missouri.

Is it cowardice or collusion?
Boise State athletic director Gene Bleymaier is all but begging for a major opponent – any major opponent – to play his Broncos, particularly in 2011. He can hardly get his calls returned. Not by the SEC. Not by the Big Ten. Not by anyone.
Bleymaier is making a nearly unheard of offer in college football scheduling – Boise will bring its popular, high-profile, top-10 team to any stadium in any town to play any big name team in America in 2011. And they don’t have to return the date in Idaho.

So far, no one has bit.
ESPN has even become involved trying to broker a deal that will almost assuredly be nationally televised. Still no luck.

It is not like Boise St doesn't try to play BCS teams, BCS teams don't want to play them. And when they beat teams like Oregon and Oregon St it makes it harder for them to get teams to play. Boise St knows they will never have a shot at a BCS Championship game without playing at least 2 "big boys" in OOC games.

 

[KnightHawk9]

For those who have never read Steele's magazine, he doesn't just pick the teams that he likes or try to be trendy. The guy crunches a ton of numbers in order to get his predictions. For example, one of the statistics he uses is teams that tend to win a lot of close games one year (e.g Iowa) tend to lose more close games the following year. The converse (e.g. Notre Dame) also tends to be true.

Another stat he uses is points per yard. So if a team tends to score a lot of points but don't gain a lot of yards one year, they will likely fall back toward historical averages the following year. He has a bunch of other metrics as well.

So while I'm not saying that Iowa is correctly ranked at 14 (or Notre Dame at 16), by just following the statistics he may get a couple teams wrong, but he tends to get the majority right. Which is what he's trying to do.

 

[5Hawkeyes]

For those who have never read Steele's magazine, he doesn't just pick the teams that he likes or try to be trendy. The guy crunches a ton of numbers in order to get his predictions. For example, one of the statistics he uses is teams that tend to win a lot of close games one year (e.g Iowa) tend to lose more close games the following year. The converse (e.g. Notre Dame) also tends to be true.

Another stat he uses is points per yard. So if a team tends to score a lot of points but don't gain a lot of yards one year, they will likely fall back toward historical averages the following year. He has a bunch of other metrics as well.

So while I'm not saying that Iowa is correctly ranked at 14 (or Notre Dame at 16), by just following the statistics he may get a couple teams wrong, but he tends to get the majority right. Which is what he's trying to do.

So how do you explain his 2009 preseason rankings:
USC #3
Ole Miss #6
ND #7
Cal #9
UGA #13
Rutgers #16
Illinois #19
GT #28

That's 8 of 25 that are not even close, roughly 33% wrong or way off. My only point is he's not any better at a preseason poll than anyone else. I agree his magazine is one of the best with tons of numbers, but it's all a guess this early in the year. Someone said it earlier, the BCS are the most important and they don't come out until October or November.

 

[KnightHawk9]

So how do you explain his 2009 preseason rankings:

A bad year. He's pretty good when you look at the longer term.

I was just trying to shed some light on how he comes up with his stuff.

 

[cincyhawk]

Can WE trade Arizona for Boise State at Iowa?????

I would take that matchup all day long in the Hawkeyes favor.

 

[SeattleHawkeye]

The thing about ND is that Weis recruited well. I'm not saying I'd have them ranked, let alone top 20, but I also won't be surprised if Kelley does well his first year and wins 8-10 games. It isn't like he's taking over w/ empty cupboards, and their schedule isn't too tough.

 

[EastLosRandy]

I think the Boise hate going on here is pretty silly. The assertions that they avoid scheduling tough opponents are based in ignorance. Reality: the tough opponents avoid them. It's a lose-lose for the major conference teams who play them. If you beat Boise, the perception is, ahh they're just Boise. If you lose to Boise, then your team becomes the laughing stock of ignorant fans (and commentators and pollsters) who just look at the name and decide that nobody good can lose to Boise.

They pushed Oregon around last year. (That was WITH Masoli, Blount, and company.) They beat TCU when everybody predicted them to lose. Now they're playing a virtual road game against most people's pick to win the ACC this year, and they're continuing a series against a solid Oregon State squad that has both Rodgers brothers returning (3300 yards combined total offense last year).

Smart money says the will probably beat OSU and give VT a run for their money. And it's not like pollsters are ignoring the weakness of their conference. One loss, and they can kiss ANY bc$ bowl goodbye. There is no logical reason to get cranky about Boise State getting ranked high. Let's see somebody actually beat them before we start the "overrated" chants.