Palm Explained What Iowa Has to Do to Make the Dance

[ChosenChildren]

Jerry Palm was on the Big Ten Finale after the Minny loss to Nebby. He said that Iowa will get a serious look for the Dance only if the following occur:

1. Iowa beats Nebby Saturday.
2. Iowa wins its first round game in the BTT.
3. Iowa wins its second round game in the BTT.

His reasoning is that Iowa has to show that it can beat a "tournament quality" team away from Carver, and has yet to do that. Thus, the need to beat one of the top 4 seeds in the second round.

In effect, the next 3 games are "elimination" games for Iowa so far as the NCAA tournament is concerned.

Heck, at least we are in the conversation right now!!!

Palm is almost 100% accurate in his NCAA analysis from year to year.....

 

[WindsorHawk]

I think he's right. However, I have 1 major problem with this. Minnesota has lost their last 7 road games...haven't won a road game since January 9, 2013. They should not be "in" if there is a concern about a team's ability to play on the road...based on Palm's analysis. What have you done for me lately?

 

[Tschroeder13]

I feel that those things would get Iowa in for sure. If only the first two happened they would be on the bubble.

 

[ILHawk]

I think he's right. However, I have 1 major problem with this. Minnesota has lost their last 7 road games...haven't won a road game since January 9, 2013. They should not be "in" if there is a concern about a team's ability to play on the road...based on Palm's analysis. What have you done for me lately?

The problem is that in conjunction with SOS. A problem the goofers don't have.

 

[busabus114]

Thats derp

Which of the last 4 in have a signature road win? Iowa State, Villanova and Tennessee at a quick glance have combined to beat zero NCAA tourney teams on the road. The best win I saw was ISU winning at NIT darling Baylor

The bubble is soft because no one can win anywhere but at home. This problem isnt unique to Iowa...Tennessee barely beat 9-21 Auburn on the road tonight

 

[busabus114]

The problem is that in conjunction with SOS. A problem the goofers don't have.

The only problem imo is SOS and in turn RPI...we have the same issues as everyone else but if the SOS was higher and Iowas RPI was 55 they would be in for sure

 

[hawkmatt]

I'm sorry but because that Badger had his 3 magically bounce in, in a game where are best player was in the middle of his slump/injury/confidence thingy, it means we can't beat a tourney team on the road, please.

I feel this team is good enough to make this years dance. Because a couple teams hit some 3's on us shouldn't change that fact.

We aren't the best team, we aren't perfect, but we are a quality team.

 

[99topdawg]

From espn.com

Iowa [19-11 (8-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 115] The Hawkeyes are back! Actually, the Hawkeyes were never truly here, because they've spent all season being just far enough outside the bubble picture that including them would have been nothing more than fan service. It just wasn't very realistic. And when Iowa lost that road game at Nebraska, the dream appeared to be dead. But two factors have the Hawkeyes at least within spitting distance of the back end of the bubble: Tuesday's win over Illinois, which got them near .500 in the best league in the country (which isn't among the stated tourney criteria but certainly can't hurt); and the collapse of nearly every fringe bubble team ostensibly ahead of them in the considerations. From an analytic standpoint, I'm actually in favor of the Hawks; they are one of the nation's 35 or so best teams, and much, much better than their horrendous computer numbers (thanks in large part to a 313 nonconference SOS) say they are. They're the classic underrated-by-RPI team. With a 4-9 record away from Carver-Hawkeye, and just a home game against Nebraska left in the regular season, they have to make something happen at the Big Ten tournament next week to make this a more realistic proposition. But the dream isn't dead.

College Basketball Bubble Watch - As the tourney draws near, a look at where we stand after a busy night on the bubble - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I think he's right. However, I have 1 major problem with this. Minnesota has lost their last 7 road games...haven't won a road game since January 9, 2013. They should not be "in" if there is a concern about a team's ability to play on the road...based on Palm's analysis. What have you done for me lately?

They beat then #1 Indiana. That gets them in.

 

[sirfarmsalot]

I am beginning to think we don't want Nebraska in back to back games. Would much rather have Northwestern in first round of big ten tourney.

 

[rider22]

I agree I want to play northwestern in the first round no matter what. So iowa has to get the six seed because with nebraskas win last night they basically locked up the 10 seed.

 

[ssckelley]

I agree, 6th seed is where Iowa wants to be even if it means playing a bad Northwestern team.

 

[burky247]

I have no problem with having Nebraska in back to back games. If we can't beat them twice in a row, we don't belong in the dance. I also agree with Palm on pretty much everything he said. I think if we could have beaten either MSU or Indiana at home, we'd be more in the conversation than if we beat Minnesota on the road though. There are a lot of bubble teams out there who don't have marquee road victories this year.

 

[ssckelley]

I have no problem with having Nebraska in back to back games. If we can't beat them twice in a row, we don't belong in the dance. I also agree with Palm on pretty much everything he said. I think if we could have beaten either MSU or Indiana at home, we'd be more in the conversation than if we beat Minnesota on the road though. There are a lot of bubble teams out there who don't have marquee road victories this year.

Flip any one of these games and Iowa has the inside track to an at large.

@Purdue
@Nebraska
@Minnesota
@Wisconsin
vs Michigan State

These are all games Iowa had the lead late and could not finish. This is a product of having a young team playing on the road in the B1G. Iowa has proved over and over they have the talent to compete with the best, all they need is the experience to close games. This is an area where we should see improvement next season.

The exciting thing for me is that Iowa does not have to get a lot better to compete for the B1G title, a couple of made free throws, clutch baskets, or bad fouls and Iowa would have been in the mix this year.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

I agree, 6th seed is where Iowa wants to be even if it means playing a bad Northwestern team.

Disagree. The 6 might give Iowa a better chance at a 1st round win but it's the second round that all pundits are looking to for Iowa to win. Iowa gets the 6 and it's more likely they will be playing either Michigan or OSU -- me no likey!

They way things could go (Wisky beats a reeling MSU to win out and Indy beats Michigan) I want Hawks to stay in the #7 to face either Wisky or Indy in the second round. Wisky @ MSU, tonight, has huge implications for Iowa's BTT potential success.

 

[clicheusername3]

Jerry Palm was on the Big Ten Finale after the Minny loss to Nebby. He said that Iowa will get a serious look for the Dance only if the following occur:

1. Iowa beats Nebby Saturday.
2. Iowa wins its first round game in the BTT.
3. Iowa wins its second round game in the BTT.

His reasoning is that Iowa has to show that it can beat a "tournament quality" team away from Carver, and has yet to do that. Thus, the need to beat one of the top 4 seeds in the second round.

In effect, the next 3 games are "elimination" games for Iowa so far as the NCAA tournament is concerned.

Heck, at least we are in the conversation right now!!!

Palm is almost 100% accurate in his NCAA analysis from year to year.....

I don't know about that bolded part.

Also, Palm puts way too much emphasis on road wins, it's what "separates" him from the other bracketologists, it's his "thing". I don't think the committee puts as much weight in to it as Palm does. I think beat Neb, win round 1 and Iowa is majorly in the discussion, but that is banking on some teams currently occupying the bubble slipping up.

 

[knighthawk13]

I have no problem with having Nebraska in back to back games. If we can't beat them twice in a row, we don't belong in the dance. I also agree with Palm on pretty much everything he said. I think if we could have beaten either MSU or Indiana at home, we'd be more in the conversation than if we beat Minnesota on the road though. There are a lot of bubble teams out there who don't have marquee road victories this year.

If any of those 3 would have happened, we would currently be a lock with a win at home Saturday.

 

[BrueCrew3]

IMHO, Iowa needs to get to and win Round 2. Anything else and I doubt we're in the discussion.

Just my $.02 .. ..

GO HAWKS!!!

 

[volhawk50]

Thats derp

Which of the last 4 in have a signature road win? Iowa State, Villanova and Tennessee at a quick glance have combined to beat zero NCAA tourney teams on the road. The best win I saw was ISU winning at NIT darling Baylor

The bubble is soft because no one can win anywhere but at home. This problem isnt unique to Iowa...Tennessee barely beat 9-21 Auburn on the road tonight

Tennessee hasn't beaten tournament teams on the road because they haven't played at tournament teams (if you count Bama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Arkansas out of the tournament). they played at Georgetown November 30th and at Virginia December 5th, haven't played a road game against a tournament team since (that's what you get when you're in the SEC). They are sitting pretty now because they played good teams a long time ago and they didn't lose to any really bad teams.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Tennessee hasn't beaten tournament teams on the road because they haven't played at tournament teams (if you count Bama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Arkansas out of the tournament). they played at Georgetown November 30th and at Virginia December 5th, haven't played a road game against a tournament team since (that's what you get when you're in the SEC). They are sitting pretty now because they played good teams a long time ago and they didn't lose to any really bad teams.

If TN is going to be excused for that reason, then by that logic, Iowa should not be penalized because it only played Michigan, MSU, OSU and Illinois only once apiece. It did not write its own conference schedule. OOC schedule is another discussion, but your conference schedule is what it is.