Odds of beating OSU this year at home

Odds of Beating OSU in Kinnick this year

  • 25%

    Votes: 7 6.9%

  • 33%

    Votes: 12 11.9%

  • 50%

    Votes: 53 52.5%

  • 60%

    Votes: 29 28.7%
  • Total voters
    101
  • Poll closed .
N

nickhawk

Well-Known Member
For the realistic Hawk fans out there, what are the odds that the Hawks can knock off a probable top 5 Ohio State team on Senior Day in Kinnick this fall?

A. 25%
B. 33%
C. 50%
D. 60%

I will go with C - I think it will all come down to turnovers and who makes the biggest plays on 3rd down.

I am a fan, not a coach, so don't give me that "one game at a time" speech, just respond with what you feel is the best guess at what kind of odds the Hawks have at winning this potential HUGE game.
 
nickhawk said:
For the realistic Hawk fans out there, what are the odds that the Hawks can knock off a probable top 5 Ohio State team on Senior Day in Kinnick this fall?

A. 25%
B. 33%
C. 50%
D. 60%

I will go with C - I think it will all come down to turnovers and who makes the biggest plays on 3rd down.

I am a fan, not a coach, so don't give me that "one game at a time" speech, just respond with what you feel is the best guess at what kind of odds the Hawks have at winning this potential HUGE game.
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I'll take 50%. There's only 2 choices, you win or you don't. That's 50%.

And I realize you're a fan, but it's best to take things one game at a time. We aren't obligated to as fans. But, it makes it easier for the team to take it one game at a time if they aren't hearing fans talk about OSU all season.
 
ask again at midpoint in the season. that will give a better judge on the Oline. The better the O-line is the better the odds.
 
tm3308 said:
I'll take 50%. There's only 2 choices, you win or you don't. That's 50%.

And I realize you're a fan, but it's best to take things one game at a time. We aren't obligated to as fans. But, it makes it easier for the team to take it one game at a time if they aren't hearing fans talk about OSU all season.
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I agree. The players can be affected by fans and other students always asking them about the Ohio State game, and they've probably already gotten it a lot throughout the spring semester. Because then it's always in the backs of their minds. We're playing Eastern Illinois, but everybody is thinking about Ohio State in November...it can create a distraction from the real task at hand.
And you can say "well they aren't suppose to worry about it" but if the fans and people around them keep bringing it up, yes it WILL become a distraction. They are human after all and their minds will wander if people keep asking them about it and building up that game.

For a player's perspective it's simple. Ohio State is the top of the mountain. They're on the rooftops of the Big Ten and have been there for years. For Iowa to get there, they're gonna have to keep doing what they've been doing for the past 2 years.....climbing the ladder.
Slowly but surely, they've worked their way into this position
But it's a new season and getting to the top takes one step at a time. We can't get to Ohio State at the top without climbing the ladder first, one step at a time. And it starts with Eastern Illinois.

Take that perspective Hawk fans....and be better off for it.
 
I don't think me expecting to win all our games every year affects the team at all.

I cannot stand losing, but I have a short memory.

Why is it of any benefit to me, just a fan, to try to figure out what the chances are we actually lose a game?

I think it is weird to figure out how likely it is we will lose. There is nothing realistic about it, as the game hasn't been played and we have only a small part in helping the team win by cheering loudly.

Implicit in all this realistic fan garbage is you have to say the Hawks will lose sometime.

I leave that to actual scoreboards, after games are played. Until then, Hawks win them all. Likely blow outs.
 
I say 60%. It's a home game. Iowa has not beaten OSU very often and the odds should be increasing for Iowa to take one from the Buckeyes. Also, this game could be for the Big Ten title.

Iowa was close last year in Columbus with the overtime loss and without a Ricky Stanzi.

I think the Hawks are due for a win.
 
GoldKey said:
I don't think me expecting to win all our games every year affects the team at all.

I cannot stand losing, but I have a short memory.

Why is it of any benefit to me, just a fan, to try to figure out what the chances are we actually lose a game?

I think it is weird to figure out how likely it is we will lose. There is nothing realistic about it, as the game hasn't been played and we have only a small part in helping the team win by cheering loudly.

Implicit in all this realistic fan garbage is you have to say the Hawks will lose sometime.

I leave that to actual scoreboards, after games are played. Until then, Hawks win them all. Likely blow outs.
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You don't think that fans constantly talking about a game in November when it's only June won't affect the team? It's all anyone wants to talk about. When the players are constantly surrounded by people talking about OSU, and asking the players about it, it's inevitably going to put it in the back of their minds. It's no different than players buying into hype from outsiders (see: Drew Tate). Everyone is affected by their environment. And it would be easier for the team to focus if we didn't constantly create a potential distraction.
 
We beat OSU about once every decade. We haven't beaten OSU this decade so if we are going to, it has to be this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath. For some reason, osu has our number like no other team in college football. For Iowa to only beat osu something like 4 or 5 times in 50 some years is unbelievable. There is such a thing as having a team's number but osu's hold on Iowa goes beyond owning Iowa.
 
NewMexHawk said:
We beat OSU about once every decade. We haven't beaten OSU this decade so if we are going to, it has to be this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath. For some reason, osu has our number like no other team in college football. For Iowa to only beat osu something like 4 or 5 times in 50 some years is unbelievable. There is such a thing as having a team's number but osu's hold on Iowa goes beyond owning Iowa.
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This is Year one of a new decade. Are you claiming you have the clairvoyance to see the next 9 years play out before you?

And if you're counting this season in with the last decade, then refresh your memory: we kicked the crap out of OSU in 2004.
 
NewMexHawk said:
We beat OSU about once every decade. We haven't beaten OSU this decade so if we are going to, it has to be this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath. For some reason, osu has our number like no other team in college football. For Iowa to only beat osu something like 4 or 5 times in 50 some years is unbelievable. There is such a thing as having a team's number but osu's hold on Iowa goes beyond owning Iowa.
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I don't know...maybe it has something to do with the fact that they've won the Big Ten like 57 years in a row...and go to the National Championship every other year.
 
KnightHawk9 said:
That's ridiculous logic. What's the chance the Hawks would beat the New Orleans Saints? 50%? What's the chance I win the Powerball? 50%?
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I wasn't being serious. But I'd rather operate one game at a time, and every game is 50-50. There are no games that can be overlooked. Even if the experts say there's a 90% chance that we beat Eastern Illinois. The players need to work with the 50-50 logic, to keep themselves grounded. And as has been posted several times now, if the fans take things one game at a time, the easier it is for the players to do the same.
 
Good point, thank you...we won our one game in the last decade in 2004 then and now are starting a new decade so we have 10 years now in which to win our next game if history holds true to form...
 
KnightHawk9 said:
That's ridiculous logic. What's the chance the Hawks would beat the New Orleans Saints? 50%? What's the chance I win the Powerball? 50%?
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That's the same sort of logic that the National Weather Service uses during winter driving: roads are 0 to 100% snow and ice covered.

No kidding.
 
Listen I love the hawks but our history against OSU isn't great.
Some teams just match up well against others. We are the kryptonite for PSU when they are stacked but we don't match up as well against OSU. We are a great team and they are a great team. Truth is they have the odds. Given these choices I will go with 33% right now....once I see both teams play it may change. IF we could write in a vote mine would be about 43% right now.
 
We've actually beaten tOSU the same number of times there (87, 91) as in Iowa City (83, 04) since Fry came to town. That's 4 wins and one tie (88) since 1979.

Ouch.
 
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