Next Seasons Non Conference

ssckelley

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Might be a little early for this but so much talk about our bad non conference this year which resulted in a low RPI, got me curious about our non conference for next season. So far we know that Iowa will be playing in the Great Alaska Shootout which will give Iowa 3 games, all on a neutral court. Hopefully either Harvard, Indiana St, or Denver will be the championship game as all 3 teams should be good next season. Here are the teams:

Harvard (19-9, RPI 93) - Harvard only graduates 1 starter off this years team. They will help the opponent win percentage and could be a win against a top 100 team.

Denver (21-9, RPI 64) - Another NCAA tournament team, they only graduate their 4th leading scorer from this years team. Another quality opponent to help win percentage and quality win over a RPI top 100 team.

TCU (10-21, RPI 238) - Other than the fact they play in the Big 12, this team probably offers Iowa nothing other than an easy win on a neutral court. They bring back their leading scorer but graduate 4 of their top 6 scorers and 3 of their starters.

Tulsa (17-15, RPI 127) - Danny Manning appears to have this team on the rise. They only graduate 2 starters and have an interesting freshman guard, Woodard, who is their leading scorer. Potential good opponent and decent win percentage.

Pepperdine (12-18, RPI 212) - Graduate their leading scorer, only good thing about playing this team is a win on a neutral court. They might be a step better than playing TCU.

Indiana State (18-14, RPI 74) - Another potential quality opponent who we play tomorrow night. They bring everybody back, starters and leading scorers. Potential quality (top 50) win here.

Alaska Anchorage - I hope Iowa avoids playing this one since they are DII, the only good thing about playing Alaska is they do not hurt you one way or the other. But I would rather have a neutral court win even over a bad team like TCU.

So of these 7 teams Iowa will play 3 of them. Ideally I hope Iowa gets Tulsa in the first round and then plays ISU, Denver, or Harvard the rest of the way. This tournament field is already a big step up over Cancun since the Cancun tournament had Iowa playing Howard & Gardner Webb on our home court and then Western Kentucky & WSU on a neutral court where Iowa only went 1-1. Hopefully Iowa wins this tournament next season to get 3 wins on a neutral court, it would be a huge RPI boost.

The rest of the schedule:
ACC Challenge, TBD - Not sure how they do this but I would think they do the matchups based on the conference standings. If so then Iowa should be looking at a game against FSU, Maryland, Boston College, or Georgia Tech. It is tough to project which of these teams would be the best matchup. But hopefully it is an opponent that does not end up with a losing record. Hopefully this is played in Carver.

@ Iowa State - Potential quality win over a top 50 opponent and a road win counts 1.4 on the weighted average. This game will be the first test on how far along this team has grown up playing on the road.

Drake (15-17, RPI 143) - They will have a new coach but graduate 4 of their top scorers and starters. This might be a tough rebuilding year for Drake. The only advantage is getting a win on a neutral court.

That is almost half of the non conference next season. So far from what I see it should be a big step up from this season, it all comes down to what they do with the other 7 games. Are there any other games that we know of?
 
Last edited:
Don't forget the ACC is adding Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt next year. Obviously MSU, Indiana, Michigan and OSU will get the marquee matchups but if we could get a home game against Pitt or Notre Dame that would be great. I'm not sure which ACC teams will sit out the challenge but I wouldn't be surprised if Maryland is one of the teams chosen not to participate.
 
The neutral court tournament will help but we have to win the tournament and avoid playing more than 1 of the bottom feeders. My guess is we will get a marginal ACC team in Carver. I hope it's an up and coming team otherwise it won't help much since it's a home game. I'm not putting down ISU but I don't think they will be a top 50 team next year...but the way the RPI works it will still help us if we get the win since they are likely a top 100 team. We will get Drake and they could be pretty low on the RPI scale but at least it's on a neutral court. If they pony up some cash and hire Carmody (unlikely) they could have a decent year and be an okay win.

Fortunately, we should get more quality wins in conference and boost our RPI this way. I'm not overly concerned since I project us out to have a big season.
 
Yep, it is "the other 7" that will dictate our non-conference SOS. Hopefully those 7 games are respectable, and not littered with 300+ RPI opponents.

The rest of the schedule looks like it ought to be fairly decent.

Iowa played UNI this year - so does that mean they play Drake next year? I'm not sure how that works these days since we don't play both each year anymore, presumably. Even if Drake could at least be around 150-200, it shouldn't kill our SOS like playing someone in the 300's would.
 
ENOUGH OF THE OOC crap no it did not help, but if the Hawks took care of business in B1G there would be a different ending to the year. I am sure Fran and Co. will put together a tougher OOC, but that ultimately is not what stopped the Hawks from getting in. It is the fact that there are at least 4 games that they choked in. That is what defined this year, and you will most likely see that happen in the NIT as well. No lead seems to be safe with this team.
 
imported_blkngldFRO said:
ENOUGH OF THE OOC crap no it did not help, but if the Hawks took care of business in B1G there would be a different ending to the year. I am sure Fran and Co. will put together a tougher OOC, but that ultimately is not what stopped the Hawks from getting in. It is the fact that there are at least 4 games that they choked in. That is what defined this year, and you will most likely see that happen in the NIT as well. No lead seems to be safe with this team.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if Iowa had won a couple more games, it probably would have been in the NCAA Tournament, but it still would have gotten a crap seed because of it's horrible non-conference. A seed like 10-12. Just ask Oregon.

It's not about simply getting in vs. not getting in. You want a good seed, too. The non-conference will make a big difference here.
 
We can schedule crappy teams and significantly improve our OOC SOS. We just need to avoid the 300+ RPI teams in favor of the just as crappy 220 RPI teams. It shouldn't make a difference once you get passed the 200th RPI teams, as they all suck, but it does. Flawed system.
 
imported_blkngldFRO said:
ENOUGH OF THE OOC crap no it did not help, but if the Hawks took care of business in B1G there would be a different ending to the year. I am sure Fran and Co. will put together a tougher OOC, but that ultimately is not what stopped the Hawks from getting in. It is the fact that there are at least 4 games that they choked in. That is what defined this year, and you will most likely see that happen in the NIT as well. No lead seems to be safe with this team.
Click to expand...

If you do not like the discussion then why even open this thread? The fact of the matter is the horrible non conference schedule is what kept Iowa out of the NCAA this year. I understand they had a number of chances to overcome that by winning a couple of big games but that did not happen. Iowa should be in the NCAA next year and we should care about the non conference since not only did it keep Iowa out this year but it affects tournament seeding.
 
ssckelley said:
Might be a little early for this but so much talk about our bad non conference this year which resulted in a low RPI, got me curious about our non conference for next season. So far we know that Iowa will be playing in the Great Alaska Shootout which will give Iowa 3 games, all on a neutral court. Hopefully either Harvard, Indiana St, or Denver will be the championship game as all 3 teams should be good next season. Here are the teams:

Harvard (19-9, RPI 93) - Harvard only graduates 1 starter off this years team. They will help the opponent win percentage and could be a win against a top 100 team.

Denver (21-9, RPI 64) - Another NCAA tournament team, they only graduate their 4th leading scorer from this years team. Another quality opponent to help win percentage and quality win over a RPI top 100 team.

TCU (10-21, RPI 238) - Other than the fact they play in the Big 12, this team probably offers Iowa nothing other than an easy win on a neutral court. They bring back their leading scorer but graduate 4 of their top 6 scorers and 3 of their starters.

Tulsa (17-15, RPI 127) - Danny Manning appears to have this team on the rise. They only graduate 2 starters and have an interesting freshman guard, Woodard, who is their leading scorer. Potential good opponent and decent win percentage.

Pepperdine (12-18, RPI 212) - Graduate their leading scorer, only good thing about playing this team is a win on a neutral court. They might be a step better than playing TCU.

Indiana State (18-14, RPI 74) - Another potential quality opponent who we play tomorrow night. They bring everybody back, starters and leading scorers. Potential quality (top 50) win here.

Alaska Anchorage - I hope Iowa avoids playing this one since they are DII, the only good thing about playing Alaska is they do not hurt you one way or the other. But I would rather have a neutral court win even over a bad team like TCU.

So of these 7 teams Iowa will play 3 of them. Ideally I hope Iowa gets Tulsa in the first round and then plays ISU, Denver, or Harvard the rest of the way. This tournament field is already a big step up over Cancun since the Cancun tournament had Iowa playing Howard & Gardner Webb on our home court and then Western Kentucky & WSU on a neutral court where Iowa only went 1-1. Hopefully Iowa wins this tournament next season to get 3 wins on a neutral court, it would be a huge RPI boost.

The rest of the schedule:
ACC Challenge, TBD - Not sure how they do this but I would think they do the matchups based on the conference standings. If so then Iowa should be looking at a game against FSU, Maryland, Boston College, or Georgia Tech. It is tough to project which of these teams would be the best matchup. But hopefully it is an opponent that does not end up with a losing record. Hopefully this is played in Carver.

@ Iowa State - Potential quality win over a top 50 opponent and a road win counts 1.4 on the weighted average. This game will be the first test on how far along this team has grown up playing on the road.

Drake (15-17, RPI 143) - They will have a new coach but graduate 4 of their top scorers and starters. This might be a tough rebuilding year for Drake. The only advantage is getting a win on a neutral court.

That is almost half of the non conference next season. So far from what I see it should be a big step up from this season, it all comes down to what they do with the other 7 games. Are there any other games that we know of?
Click to expand...

Nit picking but I will be shocked (pleasantly) if ISU is a top 50 RPI team next year. ISU will probably struggle early as they will be young. NIT team, imho.
 
ssckelley said:
If you do not like the discussion then why even open this thread? The fact of the matter is the horrible non conference schedule is what kept Iowa out of the NCAA this year. I understand they had a number of chances to overcome that by winning a couple of big games but that did not happen. Iowa should be in the NCAA next year and we should care about the non conference since not only did it keep Iowa out this year but it affects tournament seeding.
Click to expand...

I do agree the non-conference schedule did not help but your analysis is short-sided if you think this is the only factor that kept us out of the tournament.

1. 6 losses in the B1G when we had the lead and the ball with 1.30 left on the game clock. We win 2 or 3 of these and that might be enough.
1a. Loss at Minnesota as they would have finished with a 7-11 record....while our record would have been 10-8... might have been enough to push them out
1b. Nebraska bad loss... combined with a win @ Minnesota we might have finished with a 11-7 record.... might have been enough
2. Minnesota and IL, especially IL had some big time wins in the non-con making them virtual locks even if they played liked garbage in the conference. Both upset Indiana also which did not help us
3. Did not play our true post players enough -> too many small lineups, especially down the stretch were we lost the game defensively and on the backboards
4. Terribly inconsistent and/or shotty perimeter shooting which kept other teams in games and/or kept us from closing out games
5. No return trips for Michigan & Ohio St to Carver.... chances for upset which would lift our credibility
6. Although supposedly they do not look at conferences, I'm not certain the committee wanted to take 8 teams from a 12 team conference

I will argue with you had our conference schedule not been easy to some degree and we took another 2-3 losses we would have never been in remote consideration and may not be playing in the NIT. See Purdue.
 
Cydkar said:
Nit picking but I will be shocked (pleasantly) if ISU is a top 50 RPI team next year. ISU will probably struggle early as they will be young. NIT team, imho.
Click to expand...

Well you would know more than I, I admit I really did not take a close look at who you guys have back. Either way this game will not hurt Iowa, with the B12 looking weak again next season you guys should still come out with a decent record overall. Even if playing at Hilton results in a loss for Iowa it only counts as a .6 loss on the weighted average.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
I do agree the non-conference schedule did not help but your analysis is short-sided if you think this is the only factor that kept us out of the tournament.
Click to expand...

Not at all, and I agree with most of your points you listed except the last one. I do not think the committee would have hesitated taking 8 from the B1G due to the overall strength of the conference. But it has been said over and over by "experts/bracketologists" that the non conference is what killed Iowa's resume. They mention the rest of your points but the one Iowa got hammered on was the non conference.

I will argue with you had our conference schedule not been easy to some degree and we took another 2-3 losses we would have never been in remote consideration and may not be playing in the NIT. See Purdue.
Click to expand...

Hind sight is 20/20 but I think the non conference could have been massaged this season to where they could have played teams that ended up with a better overall record without adding losses. You bring up a good point though, losses on the home court are really bad, they count 1.4 on the weighted loss so whoever Iowa does schedule they need to make sure they sweep them.
 
ssckelley said:
If you do not like the discussion then why even open this thread? The fact of the matter is the horrible non conference schedule is what kept Iowa out of the NCAA this year. I understand they had a number of chances to overcome that by winning a couple of big games but that did not happen. Iowa should be in the NCAA next year and we should care about the non conference since not only did it keep Iowa out this year but it affects tournament seeding.
Click to expand...

Agree...not just here but these responses in multiple threads by multiple posters all over the basketball board. Some of us are still trying to have legitimate Iowa basketball conversations for at least another couple of weeks.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
I do agree the non-conference schedule did not help but your analysis is short-sided if you think this is the only factor that kept us out of the tournament.

1. 6 losses in the B1G when we had the lead and the ball with 1.30 left on the game clock. We win 2 or 3 of these and that might be enough.
1a. Loss at Minnesota as they would have finished with a 7-11 record....while our record would have been 10-8... might have been enough to push them out
1b. Nebraska bad loss... combined with a win @ Minnesota we might have finished with a 11-7 record.... might have been enough
2. Minnesota and IL, especially IL had some big time wins in the non-con making them virtual locks even if they played liked garbage in the conference. Both upset Indiana also which did not help us
3. Did not play our true post players enough -> too many small lineups, especially down the stretch were we lost the game defensively and on the backboards
4. Terribly inconsistent and/or shotty perimeter shooting which kept other teams in games and/or kept us from closing out games
5. No return trips for Michigan & Ohio St to Carver.... chances for upset which would lift our credibility
6. Although supposedly they do not look at conferences, I'm not certain the committee wanted to take 8 teams from a 12 team conference

I will argue with you had our conference schedule not been easy to some degree and we took another 2-3 losses we would have never been in remote consideration and may not be playing in the NIT. See Purdue.
Click to expand...

1, 1a and 1b - Iowa lacked experience...thus the soft non conference schedule and these losses.

2 - We weren't competing with Indiana and Minnesota for at large bids.

3 - Our true post players were inexperienced and not ball handlers.

4 & 5 - Agree.

6 - They would have taken 8 if we win 1 or 2 more IMO.
 
I remember reading a quote from Fran that he scheduled this way to teach this young team about winning. These guys may have been successful in high school but had yet to experience Division I basketball success and needed to learn that. There were plenty of chances for us to get into the tourney as pointed out by several people, win one or two games here or there and were in. Heck, beat Wichita State and don't blow the Nebby game and we are probably in. These guys are ready to make the next step and next year should be the launching point for them. If they are not able to make that leap next year to a top level B1G program then we can blame Barta and Fran, until then, I am going to stand behind their scheduling philosophy. And, I'm looking forward to watching the NIT games.
 
BlackandGold81 said:
I think it is a given that we will be playing on the road against an ACC team.
Click to expand...
I believe we are in line to host an ACC team in the challenge next year. I would love to see a Pitt or Notre Dame matchup at Carver. I also wouldn't be suprised if Iowa was scheduled against a tougher opponent in the challenge just based on the fact that most expect us to be very good next season, as compared to this season where most knew we were a considerably inexperienced team with some good talent.

As for the non con schedule, I think Fran knows exactly what he is doing. I also think he believed this year's team was going to snag a couple of those close losses to gain enough marquee wins to get in the tourney. As luck would have it we failed to close those out which in turn allowed our very weak ooc schedule to dictate our tourney fate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top