NET Rankings (with updates)

I thought your win quadrant was based on when you played a team, not how they're doing now. Guess I was wrong. Seems odd though, what if a team's star player goes down with a season-ending injury. What was a Q1 team could easily drop to a Q2 after that, even though when you played them they were clearly a better team.
 
Chickenlounge said:
I thought your win quadrant was based on when you played a team, not how they're doing now. Guess I was wrong. Seems odd though, what if a team's star player goes down with a season-ending injury. What was a Q1 team could easily drop to a Q2 after that, even though when you played them they were clearly a better team.
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No, the rankings fluctuate like the RPI does. The scenario you played out is a 2 way street, if you beat a player without their star player it can have the opposite affect. This is why the committee is supposed to watch a ton of games, no matter how sophisticated they make these team sheets they will never be perfect.

They have to use live rankings for this, early in the season these rankings don't mean much as they can shift in extreme fashion in 1 game. These rankings become less volatile as the season progresses and they have a larger sample size of games.
 
ssckelley said:
No, the rankings fluctuate like the RPI does. The scenario you played out is a 2 way street, if you beat a player without their star player it can have the opposite affect. This is why the committee is supposed to watch a ton of games, no matter how sophisticated they make these team sheets they will never be perfect.

They have to use live rankings for this, early in the season these rankings don't mean much as they can shift in extreme fashion in 1 game. These rankings become less volatile as the season progresses and they have a larger sample size of games.
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Net Rankings: Iowa is 23
RPI: Iowa is 54

The old way Iowa would be on the bubble... the new way they are fighting for seeding. Barring an epic meltdown Iowa is in the tournament. Can they improve upon a 7,8,9 seed is the question.
 
trj said:
Net Rankings: Iowa is 23
RPI: Iowa is 54

The old way Iowa would be on the bubble... the new way they are fighting for seeding. Barring an epic meltdown Iowa is in the tournament. Can they improve upon a 7,8,9 seed is the question.
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We've played like 2/3 of the season. Unless a team goes on a major losing or winning streak at this point rankings likely don't change much IMO. I agree I think Iowa is in barring a total collapse. When you look at the rankings that really only look at results of games (SOR, KPI, RPI) Iowa is in the 40s or 50s. When you look at rankings with a lot of predictive/efficiency stuff in them, Iowa is in the 20s. Some fans need to readjust their thinking. I'm seeing a lot of stuff on other sites about how Iowa is out of the tourney after yesterday. Nope, not even close.
 
So after last nights loss the NET ranking did not move, as they are still 24th. But Iowa missed out on an opportunity to improve their ranking, add a road win, and a Quad 2 win.

Losing to Ohio State will not move the needle much either. But at some point Iowa is gonna have to win a few games as at some point the record will start catching up to them.

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Iowa is closer to a 7 seed then they are to the bubble - but they can definitely play their way out. I just think that the middle of this schedule is VERY doable - and now that Connor is out, I feel better about minute distribution and having another offensive threat on the court. The reason Joe T isn't playing down the stretch is he can't rebound and he can't block ANYONE out. I think Connor being down opens the door for others and IMO, it makes Iowa a better team because of it.
 
After the win last night Iowa jumped up 2 spots to #22. Probably mostly due to the the other opponents Iowa has played and not so much a Quad 3 win. I think Iowa needs to find at least 5 more wins to lock up the tournament.

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Looking at the remaining schedule if Iowa doesn't win at least 5 more then they don't deserve to be in the tournament.

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Only game I really don't give them a shot at is Illinois. Michigan will be a tough matchup for us but could win. Also have to throw OSU in that list and that is one that is possible to win.
 
ssckelley said:
Looking at the remaining schedule if Iowa doesn't win at least 5 more then they don't deserve to be in the tournament.

View attachment 8684
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L
W
L (torn on this one, could be a win)
L
L (this could go either way as well, but it is a road game)
W
L
L

And then, who knows where the Ohio St game ends up, but add another L there as well.

Best case, I think they fall short of 5 wins in the rest of the regular season (4 wins) and need a win in the Big Ten Tournament. Otherwise with 4 more regular season wins (and a loss in the BTT) they would be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Maybe perhaps a play-in game for an 11 seed.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
L
W
L (torn on this one, could be a win)
L
L (this could go either way as well, but it is a road game)
W
L
L

And then, who knows where the Ohio St game ends up, but add another L there as well.

Best case, I think they fall short of 5 wins in the rest of the regular season (4 wins) and need a win in the Big Ten Tournament. Otherwise with 4 more regular season wins (and a loss in the BTT) they would be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Maybe perhaps a play-in game for an 11 seed.
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If we give Debbie their first conference win we should not be in the tourney.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
L
W
L (torn on this one, could be a win)
L
L (this could go either way as well, but it is a road game)
W
L
L

And then, who knows where the Ohio St game ends up, but add another L there as well.

Best case, I think they fall short of 5 wins in the rest of the regular season (4 wins) and need a win in the Big Ten Tournament. Otherwise with 4 more regular season wins (and a loss in the BTT) they would be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Maybe perhaps a play-in game for an 11 seed.
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Under Fran Iowa wins 77% of it's games at home so I can see them losing to either Michigan or Michigan State but I doubt they lose both. Remember all teams struggle to win on the road and that includes teams that come into Carver.

On the road they win about 36% and so far they are 2-5. Granted the road games against Illinois and Ohio State (assuming they reschedule it) are losses but Iowa will have a shot at Michigan, Maryland, and no way should they lose at Nebraska. I see a 3-1 home finish and a 2-3 road finish. Like someone else said if Iowa loses to Nebraska then they don't deserve to get into the tournament (short of pulling off a different upset).

There's your 5 wins, puts Iowa at 10-10 in conference and a 7 seed in the BTT where they will probably play the winner of Maryland vs Minnesota which they should win but then on to Purdue or Illinois and they get destroyed. Overall 21 wins with 12 losses, at that record they are in.
 
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5 wins is going to be tough. At Martland is damn near a must to get there and I'd give us about a 40% shot to win it. I think the tournament bid depends on that game.
 
ssckelley said:
Under Fran Iowa wins 77% of it's games at home so I can see them losing to either Michigan or Michigan State but I doubt they lose both. Remember all teams struggle to win on the road and that includes teams that come into Carver.

On the road they win about 36% and so far they are 2-5. Granted the road games against Illinois and Ohio State (assuming they reschedule it) are losses but Iowa will have a shot at Michigan, Maryland, and no way should they lose at Nebraska. I see a 3-1 home finish and a 2-3 road finish. Like someone else said if Iowa loses to Nebraska then they don't deserve to get into the tournament (short of pulling off a different upset).

There's your 5 wins, puts Iowa at 10-10 in conference and a 7 seed in the BTT where they will probably play the winner of Maryland vs Minnesota which they should win but the on to Purdue or Illinois and they get destroy. Overall 21 wins with 12 losses, at that record they are in.
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I hope so. There certainly is a path there if they really buckle down.
 
It is really, really hard to believe how tough it is to play basketball in the BT. Nightmare on steroids.
 
Based on today's NET rankings and our upcoming schedule..........

MD (away) Quad 2 game
NE (home) Quad 4 game
MI (home) Quad 2 game
MSU (home) Quad 1 game
NE (away) Quad 3 game
NW (home) Quad 2 game
MI (away) Quad 1 game
IL (away) Quad 1 game
OSU (away) Quad 1 game if played

Would appear the outlook is pretty decent at this point (based on NET only) just don't step on a NE mine. Should we blowup and find ourselves clearly on the bubble then as of today the teams closest to us on the NET currently and in Lunardi's First In & Out would be Washington St (36), UAB (39), N. Carolina (42), FL (44), and BYU (46).

All fun to consider but many games left for movement including the conference tourney which will also be a factor.
 
ohhawk said:
Based on today's NET rankings and our upcoming schedule..........

MD (away) Quad 2 game
NE (home) Quad 4 game
MI (home) Quad 2 game
MSU (home) Quad 1 game
NE (away) Quad 3 game
NW (home) Quad 2 game
MI (away) Quad 1 game
IL (away) Quad 1 game
OSU (away) Quad 1 game if played
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Put me down for a 6-3/6-2 finish.
 
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