NCAA tournament projections: Iowa or out?

HawkeyeHypnosis

HawkeyeHypnosis

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NCAA tournament projections: Iowa or out? | TheGazette

From article:

That said, it’s going to take a tough climb for Iowa to reach the NCAA tournament. A 10-8 league record should do it, although 9-9 and a Big Ten tournament win could get it done, too. With an advantageous stretch run, starting at Penn State (0-11 Big Ten) Thursday, the Hawkeyes have a good shot at 9-9. That’s why I’m forecasting Iowa to reach the NCAA tournament. Remember, it’s not based on current status but projected outcome.
 
IowaFan81 said:
As of right now, Iowa is out. Obviously they can play their way in though.
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Yep, that is correct. Finish 9-9 with a BTT win, or 10-8, and Iowa stands a fair chance of getting in. Gotta take it one at a time though, and not lose any games we're supposed to win. And are going to have to win 1 or 2 out of the Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois games.
 
Examine the SoS rankings.

NCAA Basketball RPI Ratings - NCAA BB Team Strength of Schedule RPI Rating

Notice the number of borderline teams top 50 SoS teams that could end up with enough wins to be bubble teams.

Some of this is beyond Iowa's control w/o a win against IU or 2 quality wins in B1G against higher seeded teams.

The fact is that the B1G is really weak with the bottom 3. Purdue is not a strong team either. Iowa's schedule is almost fully charged with these teams and we haven't been perfect (Purdue). In what I consider the biggest years of B 10 BB, the late 70's through the early 90's, it was rare for B10 to be this poor at the bottom. If you go back to the late 70's and early 80's, even the bottom of the conference with the exception of NW, were legitimate teams to beat anyone. Especially Wisky with Wesley Mathews. Wisky was a near bottom feeder and was a tough out. Probably Wisky was as or more solid than MN, IA and IL today for their times.

It's a tough sled and the powers that decide will be more impressed with tough wins against tough teams than close losses. The 2 best wins aren't that impressive. Need to build that resume and there aren't many teams that fit the building bill to get that done. The margin is very slim.

If they can't get some tough wins (not sure I count IL at this point), I'm not sure I'd want them in the tourney. Nothing on the resume shows a good showing predictor.

Keys to stepping up: Need points in the paint. Need decent 3 point shooting and not from a paint player. Marble needs to penetrate and with decent regularity needs to dish to someone who WILL score.
 
ILHawk, I disagree. The only team at the bottom that is really bad is Penn State but with Tim Frazier they would have been much tougher. Nebraska is not good but they are well coached and still own victories over teams like Wake Forest and USC. Granted those teams are bad but it shows the B1G's bad is better than other conferences bad. Purdue played a pretty tough non conference schedule and owns victories over Clemson and West Virginia. Northwestern is well coached and was much better before Crawford went down, they even have a win at Baylor. I would put the B1G bottom feeders against any of the other power conferences bottom feeders any day.

IMO, the worst the bottom of the Big Ten has even been was a few years ago when Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State were horrible. The bottom of the conference was so bad back then that Northwestern started to look good.
 
Iowa needs to finish at least 6-1 (or at least 5-2 if we beat IU) in the regular season, win our first-round game, then draw anyone but Michigan in the 2nd round. The rest is irrelevant. If these things happen we are in, if they don't we are out.
 
ssckelley said:
ILHawk, I disagree. The only team at the bottom that is really bad is Penn State but with Tim Frazier they would have been much tougher. Nebraska is not good but they are well coached and still own victories over teams like Wake Forest and USC. Granted those teams are bad but it shows the B1G's bad is better than other conferences bad. Purdue played a pretty tough non conference schedule and owns victories over Clemson and West Virginia. Northwestern is well coached and was much better before Crawford went down, they even have a win at Baylor. I would put the B1G bottom feeders against any of the other power conferences bottom feeders any day.

IMO, the worst the bottom of the Big Ten has even been was a few years ago when Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State were horrible. The bottom of the conference was so bad back then that Northwestern started to look good.
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You make some good points. Nebraska isn't a good team though. No way. Purdue is a not good team that matches up well against some teams that either are not physical (IL) or poor shooting (IA). IL may have their hands full at Assembly Hall. NW is well coached as in NE.

Anyway, where Iowa loses ground is on the SoS. IL and MN pick up at least one game on IA for NC schedule. Maybe 2 or in between. In B1G play, IA plays all the bottom feeders and has 2 road games left with the B1G Carp teams. Winning both is not a given and losing one would be near fatal.

IL doesn't play PSU 2x and have them at home. The next "weakest" team they don't play 2x is IA.

MN doesn't play PSU and PU 2x. but do have road games at NE and Purdue. Win those two and they look pretty good with one big but not impossible home win or a winnable game at Iowa as Iowa tends to keep things close.
 
JonDMiller said:
The odds for Iowa to get an at large are pretty long right now. Were I taking bets I'd give you 3 to 1 (maybe 4 to 1) against and feel good about it.
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Right NOW, yeah. Iowa is out. If they win 6 of the last 7, I'll wager those odds would shift a little..
 
I'm not confident of UI's ability to win 6 of 7 given our horrible play on the road. I've got a bad feeling we stumble and lose vs someone we shouldn't. Very concerned about PSU game.
 
Its unfortunate they cannot play a round robin in the conference. ( I understand why.) Listened to an interview with the head of the selection committee, and one of the things he mentioned about selection process review A) Did they play a round robin in their conference and B) if they did not then what teams did they play within the conference.

I guess translated means in a round robin the standings will determine priority of selection. (Unless overall record is really bad.)
In the Big 10 its more about who you played within the conference.

Probably stating the obvious here. And I guess they say the number of bids a conference receives should not matter, but you still wonder.

Iowa still has a good shot.
 
1hawkeye1 said:
I'm not confident of UI's ability to win 6 of 7 given our horrible play on the road. I've got a bad feeling we stumble and lose vs someone we shouldn't. Very concerned about PSU game.
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Let's assume we have 9 games left. If we went 6-3 the rest of the way (21-12 overall) I think that puts us squarely in the post-season. Frankly, with this young, developing team, 1 or 2 or 3 games at Carver in the NIT might be a great thing.

I'm just not that hung up on an NCAA bid this year; I want to see us beating the teams we really should beat and then make a little run in some type of post-season tournament. Next year I would hope we could make the jump to the NCAA tourney, although the schedule is going to be tougher.

The great news is that Iowa BB is relevant again, competitive and fun to watch.
 
Hawks need to be 10-8 in the league to have a shot IMO. Of course they could run the table in the league tourney and that would be fine with me.
 
I need to know if it's 3 to 1 or 4 to 1. I've got an extra $20 burning a hole in my pocket at 4 to 1.

JonDMiller said:
The odds for Iowa to get an at large are pretty long right now. Were I taking bets I'd give you 3 to 1 (maybe 4 to 1) against and feel good about it.
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As an outsider, I would probably say they are out, as a Hawkeye fan that is hopeful of a strong finish, I would say it's a 50/50 chance of getting in.
 
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