NCAA Dual Thoughts and Big 10 Seeding

twade70

Well-Known Member
Overall thoughts: Came away from the MN dual pretty deflated. The whole team looked flat - the Hawks had no business losing that dual. Feel a little better after the IL dual, but there's still a lot of work to do before Big 10s.


Note: Records after each wrestler's name represent their record during BIG 10 DUAL MEET SEASON ONLY.

125 - McD had a pretty good day. Both matches were relatively close, but considering the competition, I'm okay with that.

• Minnesota: Through the first 2.5 periods, this match went the same as all Sanders-McD matchups. Sanders doesn't have the length to finish on McD, McD puts on a tough ride, leading 5-2 (with RT) with 30 seconds left. Then I don't know if McD let up a bit or what, but Sanders hit a nice inside trip to pull within 5-4. After erasing the RT, Sanders lets McD up, but time runs out and the final score is 6-4. Even though the result was much closer than their prior matchups, I still feel good about McD going forward. Sanders has yet to show he can get a conventional TD on McD and I can almost guarantee he's not going to hit another inside trip.

• Illinois: This is going to be a tough matchup for McD for the next 2 years. Delgado is just so quick and has no problem getting to McD's legs, plus he's arguably as good a scrambler as McD is. Fortunately, McD was able to scramble much better than their first matchup. After tieing the match up with an escape at the start of the 3rd, McD was able to counter Delgado's shot and scramble for a TD to win the match. I'm going to be nervous every time these 2 face off.
• Big 10 seeding - Sanders and Delgado should be on the opposite side of the bracket.

1. McDonough (IA) 7-1
2. Sanders (MN) 7-1
3. Delgado (IL) 6-2
4. Megaludis (PSU) 5-3
5. Mele (NW) 6-2
6. Dijulius (OSU) 4-3
7. Olanowski (MSU) 3-4
8. Pizzo (MI) 3-5

133 - While he came away with 2 victories, Tony wasn't his normal aggressive self. Still, these wins were huge for Big 10/NCAA seeding

• Minnesota: Just a bad matchup for Tony. Just like Stieber, Dardanes is so physical and strong, Tony can't open up like he does against most opponents. I'm shocked he didn't get called for stalling in this match. Tony didn't take one legit shot and was pretty fortunate to pull this off in OT. After no scoring in the 1:00 SV period, he rode Dardanes out in the first TB. Then Tony got a quick escape in the 2nd TB and was able to capitalize on Dardanes having to go for broke to get a score. Good job keeping his composure, but he shouldn't be going to OT to settle it.

• Illinois: After giving up a quick TD, Tony did a good job turning things around in the 2nd period. He really rode Futrell tough throughout this match. That's where Tony has improved the most this year, his skills in the top position.

• Big 10 Seeding - Luckily, Dardanes should be on the other side of the bracket. Dardanes gave Stieber his only Big 10 loss this year. Should be a great rematch

1. L. Stieber (OSU) 7-1
2. Ramos (IA) 7-1
3. Futrell (IL) 7-1
4. C. Dardanes (MN) 5-2
5. Quiroga (PU) 4-3
6. Stevens (MI) 4-4
7. Kiley (NE) 4-4
8. Martellotti (PSU) 3-4

141 - Montell was fortunate to pull off the win against Dardanes. I'd love to see him force the action more as once again shows he can get a TD virtually any time he wants. He's got to be more aggressive.

• Minnesota: Montell looked better here than he did the first time vs. N. Dardanes, but he really needs to widen the gap. He tried to stall to a W, but was taken down with :20 sec left to go down 4-3. He hit a beautiful granby to get the escape with :02 seconds left to force OT. Then he wins in SV with a nice TD. Can't believe he was able to force OT, but he needs to end it in regulation. While Dardanes is tough, Montell shouldn't be going to OT.

• Illinois: Ho hum win against an outclassed opponent. Would like to see Marion get the MD here, but he doesn't always have the mindset.

• Big 10 Seeding: Marion is going to have a rematch with Stieber (who gave Russell his only loss on the year in the Las Vegas Invitational). I like Montell's chances and I'm looking forward to another match with Russell.

1. Russell (MI) 8-0
2. H. Stieber (OSU) 5-1
3. Marion (IA) 6-1
4. N. Dardanes (MN) 5-2
5. Sueflohn (NE) 5-2
6. Thomas (IL) 5-3
7. Pearsall (PSU) 3-4
8. Ortega (IN) 3-4

149 - Definitely the most limited offense in the starting lineup. Lots of hand fighting and no points. He's going to be lucky to qualify for NCAAs.

• Minnesota: I'm going to keep assuming that Kelly is going to wrestle a smarter match in one of these head-to-heads vs. Ness. What works against a lot of guys just doesn't work against Ness. Down 2-0 to start the 2nd, Kelly has an inside cradle locked up and somehow gets reversed and almost pinned when Ness creates a scramble. Then when he absolutely cannot give up another TD in order to avoid a MD, Ness gets another low ankle and scores the 2.

• Illinois: Again, no offense. Terrazas gets the only TD in the match to win 3-2.

• Big 10 seeding: Kelly's going to be unseeded. Btw, this weight was a bear to try and figure out seeding. Molinaro's getting the 1 seed and I'm pretty confident in Grajales getting the 2, but after that it's a relative crap shoot.

1. Molinaro (PSU) 8-0
2. Grajales (MI) 5-2
3. Ness (MN) 5-3
4. Tessari (OSU) 4-1
5. Lopouchanski (PU) 6-2
6. Walsh (IN) 5-2
7. Terrazas (IL) 5-3
8. Friedley (NW) 3-4

157 - SHOCKED to see DSJ wrestle this weekend. While he didn't blow anyone's doors off, it's nice to get those 2 wins under his belt, especially for seeding purposes. Now he gets 2 more weeks to rest the knee.

• Minnesota: Gave up the 1st period TD, but was able to get the reversal. Looked tough on top throughout the match. Also looked relatively aggressive into the 3rd, releasing Zilverberg and looking for more points in the last :30 seconds. Zilverberg isn't terrible - at 149 last year, he had a win over Grajales and was a NCAA qualifier.

• Illinois: DSJ gave up another early TD (that's 3 matches in a row where he's given up the first TD) and after getting an escape was able to funk his was in to his own TD to end the 1st period. He started down in the 2nd and once Morse got to high with the legs DSJ was able to get the reversal and the quick pin. DSJ's 2 big obstacles right now are his lungs and his confidence coming off injury. Honestly, I wish this match would have gone 3 full periods in order to give DSJ more mat time, but this was a confidence builder. Hopefully he's got a good mindset going into Big 10s.

• Big 10s: DSJ's early return against Demas (OSU) hurt him for seeding purposes. I can't see DSJ getting seeded any higher than 6. Green's going to be tough. DSJ can rely on funk when guys get in on a single leg - problem is Green has a fantastic double leg and is one of the quickest wrestlers in the Big 10. I'd much rather see Jones in the 2nd round.

1. Welch (NW) 8-0
2. Alton (PSU) 6-2
3. Green (NE) 7-1
4. Jones (MSU) 5-3
5. Demas (OSU) 4-3
6. St. John (IA) 2-1
7. Ortiz (MN) 3-3
8. Perry (WI) 2-6

165 - This weekend was a definite step back for Mike. Really struggled to put together any offense from his feet and had a lot of trouble with his defense. I feel good about him turning things around at Big 10s, but he has work to do.

• Minnesota: Ugh. Really looked flat in this match and while he was shooting throughout, he never really got to Yohn's legs. Yohn, on the other hand, was in on Evans a number of times. He had RT at the end of the 2nd and then got the escape to make the score 1-1 (2-1 with RT). Evans shut it down at this point and Yohn got the TD to go up 3-1. Evans was able to get the escape and with his RT was able to force OT. In OT, once again Yohn had the only good attempt and converted the TD. He definitely was not "on" for this match and it cost the Hawks the dual. Hopefully he learned a lesson here.

• Illinois: a better result and a nice win against a legit wrestler, but again had trouble creating offense from his feet. He scored the only TD in the match, but it was on Polz's shot.

• Big 10 Seeding: Evans has 2 bad losses on his resume, to Yohn and Garcia. However, he's got wins over Kokesh, Jordan, Polz and Yohn, so I'm not entirely sure where he's going to be seeded. He should be either 2 or 3 (and on the opposite side of the bracket from Taylor), but you never know.

1. Taylor (PSU) 8-0
2. Evans (IA) 6-2
3. Kokesh (NE) 6-2
4. Jordan (WI) 3-3
5. Polz (IL) 6-1
6. Yates (MI) 4-3
7. Yohn (MN) 2-5
8. Garcia (OSU) 4-4

174 - Looking at the box score, Ethen had a fantastic weekend. Watching it live - I'm still worried about him. Really hesitates to pull the trigger a lot of times and still has trouble defending. He's got to go to his offense more.

• Minnesota: Huge win for Ethen, for seeding and for confidence. He came out flat, down 3-1 with :20 seconds to go, but was able to get a TD just before the buzzer to tie it up 3-3. Unlike the previous matchup, Ethen didn't spend a lot of time on bottom and got the escape to go up 4-3. He was able to get the W, but didn't look good doing it as he stalled most of the 3rd period.

• Illinois: Blanton is really good, but Ethen just seems to have his number. Ethen's beat him 3 times now this season.

• Big 10 Seeding: Ethen's wins this weekend should clinch him the 2 or 3 seed. Huge for him as this would keep him on the opposite side of Ruth.

1. Ruth (PSU) 8-0
2. Storley (MN) 7-0
3. Lofthouse (IA) 5-2
4. Heflin (OSU) 3-2
5. Zeerip (MI) 4-3
6. Koehn (NE) 4-4
7. Jacobs (MSU) 5-3
8. Blanton (IL) 3-2

184 - So glad to see Gambrall down at this weight.

• Minnesota: Despite the outcome, I'm pretty happy with how Gambrall did here. Steinhaus is good in all positions and a bad matchup for Grant (he's beat him all 3 times they've matched up). Gambrall moved much better than he did at 197 and was in a position to win with a TD in the 3rd.

• Illinois: Gambrall really forced the action here, putting together numerous TD attempts. Was shooting throughout the match and even got a stall call on Dallago before winning by MD, 10-2.

• Big 10 seeding: Very curious to see where they put Grant. In doing my predictions, I didn't put any weight on his results at 197 - not sure if the seeding committee will do the same. The Dallago win was huge for seeding purposes, as he has some decent wins over Big 10 184 pounders. I could see Gambrall being seeded anywhere from 4-6.

1. Steinhaus (MN) 8-0
2. Wright (PSU) 7-1
3. Ihnen (NE) 6-2
4. Magrum (OSU) 3-0
5. Atwood (PU) 6-2
6. Gambrall (IA) 0-0
7. Dallago (IL) 6-2
8. Hinton (MSU) 2-4

197 - Vinnie is going to struggle here. He wrestled 2 of the better 197 pounders in the conference on Sunday. He may have a chance against some of the less talented guys here, but it's an uphill battle.

• Minnesota: Just outmuscled. Good to see Vinnie continue to shoot (I'm hoping some of our other starters were watching his aggressiveness in this match), but the strength/size difference is huge. Good job avoiding the MD though.

• Illinois: see above.

• Big 10 Seeding: Vinnie's not getting seeded. Let's hope he's drawn into a match with one of the lower seeded guys.

1. Yohn (MN) 6-1 (lost to Gonzalez)
2. Powless (IN) 7-0 (lost to Yohn at the Southern Scuffle)
3. McIntosh (PSU) 5-1 (he's been out with a knee injury, but I'm assuming he'll go at Big 10s)
4. Campollattano (OSU) 5-3
5. Huntley (MI) 3-3
6. Gonzalez (IL) 6-2
7. Nakashima (NE) 4-3
8. McDiarmid (MSU) 2-5

HWT - Bobby isn't wrestling his best right now. It seems to be a confidence issue. I hope he gets things figured out in the next 2 weeks.

• Minnesota: Just a huge strength/size advantage for Nelson. Bobby looks so skinny through the hips and legs. He really needs to build up his body in order to go head-to-head with the elite at HWT. Nelson was in control the whole match and Bobby had no idea how to get a TD (though the same can be said for most guys who wrestle Nelson).

• Illinois: Bobby looked better here, but again, not much offense. Points scored via NF, escape and RT. Need to see more from the feet for Bobby.

• Big 10 Seeding: This was another tough one to figure out. You could put the guys seeded 5-8 in any order and have a legit argument.

1. Nelson (MN) 8-0
2. Wade (PSU) 7-1
3. Apland (MI) 6-2
4. Lane (NE) 5-3
5. Telford (IA) 2-2
6. Vukobratovich (PU) 4-4
7. McMullan (NW) 5-3
8. Chalfant (IN) 3-3
 
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Good read TWade!

125- I would NOT call those nail-biters. McD was in control in both matches. Still has never lost to Sanders and got back at Delgado. He's on a mission.

133- Another good win over Futrell.

141-Thought Marion came out pretty hard in the 1st period. Would have like to see more points in the first 2 periods, but Dardanes is no scrub. Marion will be fine.

149- Ugh

157- Glad to see St. John back. He has 2 weeks to get in better shape and build confidence in his leg.

165- Not the Evans we've seen all year. I think he'll be fine

174- Lofthouse impressed me the most this weekend. He beat 2 quality opponents and looked aggressive doing it.

184-HWT- UGH

I think we'll have 1 national champ (McD), 2 in the top 3 (Ramos & Marion), and 2 more All Americans (Evans & Lofthouse).
 
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great read twade! i really feel like i have been slacking on this forum but guess work is more important
 
Maybe they werent nail biters but i wouldnt exactly say Mcd was in control the whole time. Delgado was in on shots numerous times. Mcd had control at the end and thats all that really matters.
 
Totally agree with Wild here, I can see where Delgado can get the best of McD. That kid was in deep on all of his shots, he's gonna be a good one.
 
Twade - this year is the most difficult to seed in recent memory. I think adding a 12th team contributed to the confusion with so many similar records. It will definitely be interesting to see how it all sorts out, especially for DSJ, GG, and Wagner. At 149 we'll have to hope for a lucky draw. 2 more weeks!
 
Pre-seeds will come out next Monday. Historically, the final seeds almost always mirror the preseeds. I looked at this last year, and in the 6 years since 2006, there has been only 3 TOTAL changes from pre-seeds to what the brackets end up (not counting times where an athlete was unable to wrestle and everyone just moved up a spot).

So we'll know for sure on the seeded wrestlers a week from today.
 
Excellent breakdown twade! I'm still waiting for the Hawks to wrestle aggressively for the entire 7 minutes and quit letting the other team get to their legs so easily. Ironside had no problem expressing his frustration with lack of aggressiveness by certain individuals yesterday.
I still hope we can get 2-3 guy's into the Semi's (and maybe finals) at Nationals but feel this will only happen if they open up and get more aggressive.
Definitely good to see GG back at 184. Wouldn't shock me if he has another good run at Nationals.
On a side note, I was amazed at how easily Oliver defeated both Futrell and Dardanes yesterday. He has really turned it up a notch since his loss to Ramos.
 
I can't believe that Mark Ballweg isn't a better option at 149 than Kelly. Kelly has been awful as of late and gets himself in bad positions routinely. Mark at least had a motor.
 
I can't believe that Mark Ballweg isn't a better option at 149 than Kelly. Kelly has been awful as of late and gets himself in bad positions routinely. Mark at least had a motor.


I agree. It's too late now, but at what point to you give him a shot? Kelly must really have his number in the wrestling room or something.
 
I can't believe that Mark Ballweg isn't a better option at 149 than Kelly. Kelly has been awful as of late and gets himself in bad positions routinely. Mark at least had a motor.

+1. Kelly is showing nothing recently. He has no offense, never really gives himself a chance because he rarely shoots. I don't think he will qualify and if he does he won't score us any points. I can't believe one of the Ballweg's or Dziewa wouldn't give us a better chance to score points then Kelly the way he is currently wrestling. He has no confidence. Wish Carew was an option still but its way to late for that ship.
 
Twade - this year is the most difficult to seed in recent memory. I think adding a 12th team contributed to the confusion with so many similar records. It will definitely be interesting to see how it all sorts out, especially for DSJ, GG, and Wagner. At 149 we'll have to hope for a lucky draw. 2 more weeks!

I concur, this season was WAY tougher than the last 2 years in trying to figure out seeding. Toughest weights were either 149 or HWT. Then you've got really talented guys who didn't get a lot of matches under their belt due to injury or moving around in weight classes in DSJ (IA), Heflin (OSU), Gambrall (IA) and Magrum (OSU). Add in Nebraska and it was a real shot in the dark.

On the other site, I saw someone post how they do seeding for NCAAs. I'm assuming it's similar for Big 10s (only difference is 8 seeded wrestlers rather than 12).

They do not have a specific criteria for seeding at the National tourney. The coaches from each qualifier tourney select a coach to pre seed the tourney. That coach gives 12 points to the guy he thinks is number 1 and 11 points to the guy he thinks is number 2 all the way down to 1 point to the guy he thinks is the number 12 seed.

The points are then added up. The guy with the most points gets the number 1 seed, the guy with the second most points gets the number 2 seed all the way on down to the 12th seed.

Then they have a meeting at the national tourney. They show you who the number 1-12 seeds are. IF a guy from your regional is within 4 or 6 (I can't remember which) seeding points of a guy seeded ahead of him and he has beaten that guy, you can argue that his seed gets changed.

Otherwise those are the seeds for the tourney. I do not think many coaches are going to seed Ramos or anyone else ahead of Oliver in that weight, unless Oliver loses before the NCAA tourney. I would bet a huge sum of money that the winner of the big 10 tourney will get the number 2 seed, unless it is Dardanes (which is possible). If Dardanes wins it seeds 2-5 will be crazy and I am guessing at the pre tournament seed meeting they will all be within 6 points of each other.


Now is when the fun starts. Going off last year conference qualification allocations should come out tomorrow and the final coaches' rankings (and RPI) should come out today.
 
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