My Year By Year Iowa Football Prediction: 2001-2011

Thanks Jon(great name, btw ;)) Great read, as always. I was right there with ya in 2010....and just as disappointed.....
 
i dont care if the hawks go 1-11 this year so long as that lone win is against the blackSKIRTS!!!
 
I don't see that there's too much to get worked up about here. The reality is that if you wanted to be the most "accurate" predictor of Iowa's record, you would put them at 7-5 or 8-4 every year. There'd be no looking at the schedule, no assessing matchups or returning starters-- you'd just spit out 8-4 if you thought things were trending well and 7-5 if they didn't feel as promising. You'd never be off by more than a couple of games in either direction, but you also wouldn't be generating any interesting content or articles. There's be nothing to debate.

By the same token, I'll predict Iowa State's record right now: 5-7. I haven't even looked at their schedule. I haven't broken down Steele Jantz's numbers. I really don't know much about the Cyclones at all. It's a good, safe, boring prediction, and it doesn't provide any fodder for discussion. But there's a 90% chance that I'll be accurate to within one game, and probably 97% that I'll be accurate to within two games. Congratulations to me, I guess.
 
Great site, great message board, great work. I love Hawkeye Nation and I can't say enough good things about Jon Miller and the work he has done and continues to do. This message board really adds to the enjoyment of being an Iowa fan.

Having said that, I hate your prediction of this year's team at 8-4. This is a team that will win 4 to 6 games, best case. 6-6 and a bowl bid should be considered a great season. 7-5 and I nominate Ferentz for coach of the year.

You are going to get embarrassed on this one, I fear.
 
Hey Jon I thought I would have some fun with those numbers too.

First some general stats about your picks:

even when off by one
plus one when off by two
even when off by three
plus two when off by five

only under by more than 1 once
only over by three once
only off by two once
never been off by four - over or under

Now a look at the five year average bias:

Last five years: +3 0 0 +5 +1 = +9 / 5 yrs equals a +1.8 Iowa bias

First five years: +1 -3 -1 -1 +2 = -2 / 5 yrs equals a -0.4 Iowa bias

If we include [2006] in both sets....

Last six years: [+5] +3 0 0 +5 +1 = +14 / 6 yrs equals a +2.3 Iowa bias

First six years: +1 -3 -1 -1 +2 [+5] = +3 / 6 yrs equals a +0.5 Iowa bias

Your standard deviation is going up and your Iowa bias growing as time goes on. You've only had one flyer in under predicting if you count the -3 in 2002.

Homer this year? I think not. I'm predicting that you are going to be under this year by one, maybe two wins as it is hard to account for the intangibles in a season like this. I have to think the schedule and the general feel with all the changes in staffing are going to push a couple of those close games into the Hawk's win column.

Plus, if you are under by just one game this year, your six year average will drop to +1.6 and, amazingly enough, you will have zero bias in your five year average.
 
bitmap, interesting stuff. Real interesting. I think like most, back in 02, 03 & 04, undervalued Iowa...after that, went the other way, like a lot of people did.
 
Yeah but 2010 really was SO close to being a great season. I still believe had we not missed an extra point in that Arizona game... the season roles along differently. Lose Wisky on a ridiculous fake punt, collapse in the 4th quarter to nw, really SHOULD have beaten Ohio St. if not for a incredible play by a cheater, and then a blunder of a game against minnesota... that we still only lost by a couple points. That team DID have national title caliber talent... just didn't finish the job. I think if the 2010 team had Pat Angerer, they finish those games. Anybody who predicted 12-0, 11-1 was not in the wrong that year.
 
I still think 2010 came down to the injuries at guard. Gettis and Mac went down and Iowa lost three games at the end of the year that they would not otherwise have lost. Now, you would hope they would have had a better option to bring in to fill that hole, but I just don't think it was as bad a year as other people think. It is just too hard to move the ball when your OLine has a massive hole right up the middle.

They lost 4 conference games by a total of 11 points.
 
Another common jab (I am looking at you, CycloneFanatics) is that I overestimate Iowa each year, so my picks need to be watered down. Well, in the 11 years I have been making public predictions I have either directly hit Iowa’s final win total or underestimated their final win total five of the 11 seasons.
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That may be true, but in the last 6 years you've overshot it by FIVE twice, and once by three. That's pretty far off.
 
BryceC said:
That may be true, but in the last 6 years you've overshot it by FIVE twice, and once by three. That's pretty far off.
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Most people were off by four for 2010, and me and Rob both had 11-1 in 2006. A lot of people were really bullish in both of those years.
 
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