JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The first 'game week' of the 2011 college football season is upon us. Kirk Ferentz will hold his first of 13 straight Tuesday press conferences this week, and Iowa players will meet with the media on the same day. The time for making predictions and offering up any more preseason analysis is quickly coming to an end, so here is one last offering.
Iowa's Offense Must Convert on Third Downs: This is something that is helpful no matter the year, but this year as much as any in recent Iowa memory, the Iowa offense may be in a position to give the defense a hand up. The two best ways to do that is to a) score points and b) move the chains.
Scoring points is obvious, though a strong touchdown to field goal ratio will be under the microscope this year. But the impact of an effective third down offense was never more on display than the final four regular season games of 2010.
Through eight games, which was two-thirds of the regular season, Iowa's offense was second in the nation in pass efficiency (177.37) and 26th in scoring offense (34.1). That points per game production was on pace to be the third best season average in school history. Iowa was also converting third downs 51% of the time, which ranked 2nd in the Big Ten and 10th in the nation.
When you are doing those things 8 games in to a 12 game schedule, at least during the Ferentz years, that's typically the team you are for the rest of the year. Those offensive numbers were so, so helpful to a defensive front that was using just five players, and the defensive statistics backed that up; Iowa was 8th in the nation in scoring defense and 13th in the nation in scoring defense (32.4% opponent third down conversions allowed per game).
During the Michigan State game, Iowa lost its best cover linebacker for the season (Tyler Nielsen), it's offensive MVP to that point (Adam Robinson) and it's 1st and 2nd string right guards, with the 3rd stringer having transfered out of the program before the first game (Cody Hundertmark).
What happened after that point?
Iowa's offense would convert just 34% of its third down attempts the rest of the way and averaged 19 points per game, three of those games coming against some of the worst defenses in the league (Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota).
The Iowa defense was on the field more as a result of that, and their third down conversion percentage allowed swelled to 50.8% over those final four games and they allowed 20.25 points per game. That's not a horrible number, but it was nearly 6 points per game more than they allowed through the first eight contests.
Moving the chains on third down impacts both offense and defense, and this year's Iowa defense could use a hand up from an offense that controls time of possession with an effective ground game and one that can move the chains 40% of the time or better, plus one that puts it in the endzone once they get to the redzone.
Offensive Line Must Lead the Way: It goes without saying that James Vandenberg needs to have a very good year for Iowa. He has the tools to do that, plus he has been a film room devotee. However, the biggest area that will impact his ability to make positive plays will be his offensive line.
This line has a chance to be at least the third best of the Ferentz era. The 2002 line set the bar for the era, and perhaps all time. The 2008 offensive line was also very, very good. Shonn Greene was also pretty salty in his own right, but that line was really good. Rob Bruggeman had a sensational year and he was a linebacker's worst nightmare that season, securing reach block after reach block which opened up running lanes at the second level.
James Ferentz has the ability to put forth such a year. I was very impressed with his season in 2010, considering he was a sophomore. Riley Reiff is one of the best left tackles in the nation. When healthy, Adam Gettis can be a devastating blocker and Markus Zusevics should build off of his solid 2010 season. Iowa has several other offensive linemen whom the staff is confident in playing should they get the call this year. The Hawkeyes have as much quality depth on the offensive line than at any time since that 2002 season. In that area this could be the second best group of the Ferentz era.
This means potentially big things to the Iowa ground game, which will be Vandenberg's second best friend.
With Iowa having multiple weapons at tight end (I think we could see a lot of two-tight personnel groupings with one of the TE's being an H back, which gives you more options in the passing game) to go along with a solid running game and a potentially very good offensive line, Vandenberg might have a lot of wide open options in Iowa's play action passing game. Brad Banks saw a lot of that in 2002, in the seams as well as in the bootleg area of the offense.
Perhaps it's just me, but it seems like Iowa ran less bootleg action last year than it had in previous years. They still ran it, but not as much as we have seen it when they have the ground game rolling. Iowa's bread and butter passing production comes when the play action is clicking, and that clicks when the running game is gashing holes...there is a chance for that level of production this year.
That also means a big boost for a defense in time of possession.
Health at Linebacker: Shane DiBona is already done for the year with a ruptured Achilles, so the Hawks have one mark against them before the season starts. This is a group that was hammered by injuries last year.
Jeff Tarpinian was poised to have a great 2010, and Kirk Ferentz has repeated referred to him as the greatest Iowa player to have never played. His backup Bruce Davis was lost for the year at Arizona. Tyler Nielsen went down for the year against Michigan State. So Iowa played more than half the season with a true freshman middle linebacker (I can't remember the last time that happened at Iowa...maybe it hasn't in my lifetime) and one third of the season (at a point where Iowa was still 6-2) without it's top two MLB and it's LEO, who was Iowa's best cover linebacker. Two of Iowa's top four linebackers were done before the midway point in the season, then three of the top four were done by the two-thirds mark.
I am eager to see how Kirksey and Hitchens handles the WLB position...they are smaller players than Iowa has used at that position in the Ferentz era, but they are also pretty quick and nimble and might give a boost against the horizontal passing attacks they will see this year. Morris should be a lot better than we last saw him, and Davis will back him up. Nielsen was having a better junior year than AJ Edds had as a junior, and Edds looked like a pro as a sophomore but behind him is Tom Donatell, who has been a defensive back during his time at Iowa and who is still listed as a defensive back on the Iowa roster at 6-2/205.
Whoa...outside of the drop off between Vandenberg to whomever is the #2 quarterback, this might be the next biggest drop off and I don't say that to slight Donatell. A 6-2/205 pound LEO in Iowa's system is hardly ideal.
So stay healthy, backers...this team needs that badly.
Iowa's Offense Must Convert on Third Downs: This is something that is helpful no matter the year, but this year as much as any in recent Iowa memory, the Iowa offense may be in a position to give the defense a hand up. The two best ways to do that is to a) score points and b) move the chains.
Scoring points is obvious, though a strong touchdown to field goal ratio will be under the microscope this year. But the impact of an effective third down offense was never more on display than the final four regular season games of 2010.
Through eight games, which was two-thirds of the regular season, Iowa's offense was second in the nation in pass efficiency (177.37) and 26th in scoring offense (34.1). That points per game production was on pace to be the third best season average in school history. Iowa was also converting third downs 51% of the time, which ranked 2nd in the Big Ten and 10th in the nation.
When you are doing those things 8 games in to a 12 game schedule, at least during the Ferentz years, that's typically the team you are for the rest of the year. Those offensive numbers were so, so helpful to a defensive front that was using just five players, and the defensive statistics backed that up; Iowa was 8th in the nation in scoring defense and 13th in the nation in scoring defense (32.4% opponent third down conversions allowed per game).
During the Michigan State game, Iowa lost its best cover linebacker for the season (Tyler Nielsen), it's offensive MVP to that point (Adam Robinson) and it's 1st and 2nd string right guards, with the 3rd stringer having transfered out of the program before the first game (Cody Hundertmark).
What happened after that point?
Iowa's offense would convert just 34% of its third down attempts the rest of the way and averaged 19 points per game, three of those games coming against some of the worst defenses in the league (Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota).
The Iowa defense was on the field more as a result of that, and their third down conversion percentage allowed swelled to 50.8% over those final four games and they allowed 20.25 points per game. That's not a horrible number, but it was nearly 6 points per game more than they allowed through the first eight contests.
Moving the chains on third down impacts both offense and defense, and this year's Iowa defense could use a hand up from an offense that controls time of possession with an effective ground game and one that can move the chains 40% of the time or better, plus one that puts it in the endzone once they get to the redzone.
Offensive Line Must Lead the Way: It goes without saying that James Vandenberg needs to have a very good year for Iowa. He has the tools to do that, plus he has been a film room devotee. However, the biggest area that will impact his ability to make positive plays will be his offensive line.
This line has a chance to be at least the third best of the Ferentz era. The 2002 line set the bar for the era, and perhaps all time. The 2008 offensive line was also very, very good. Shonn Greene was also pretty salty in his own right, but that line was really good. Rob Bruggeman had a sensational year and he was a linebacker's worst nightmare that season, securing reach block after reach block which opened up running lanes at the second level.
James Ferentz has the ability to put forth such a year. I was very impressed with his season in 2010, considering he was a sophomore. Riley Reiff is one of the best left tackles in the nation. When healthy, Adam Gettis can be a devastating blocker and Markus Zusevics should build off of his solid 2010 season. Iowa has several other offensive linemen whom the staff is confident in playing should they get the call this year. The Hawkeyes have as much quality depth on the offensive line than at any time since that 2002 season. In that area this could be the second best group of the Ferentz era.
This means potentially big things to the Iowa ground game, which will be Vandenberg's second best friend.
With Iowa having multiple weapons at tight end (I think we could see a lot of two-tight personnel groupings with one of the TE's being an H back, which gives you more options in the passing game) to go along with a solid running game and a potentially very good offensive line, Vandenberg might have a lot of wide open options in Iowa's play action passing game. Brad Banks saw a lot of that in 2002, in the seams as well as in the bootleg area of the offense.
Perhaps it's just me, but it seems like Iowa ran less bootleg action last year than it had in previous years. They still ran it, but not as much as we have seen it when they have the ground game rolling. Iowa's bread and butter passing production comes when the play action is clicking, and that clicks when the running game is gashing holes...there is a chance for that level of production this year.
That also means a big boost for a defense in time of possession.
Health at Linebacker: Shane DiBona is already done for the year with a ruptured Achilles, so the Hawks have one mark against them before the season starts. This is a group that was hammered by injuries last year.
Jeff Tarpinian was poised to have a great 2010, and Kirk Ferentz has repeated referred to him as the greatest Iowa player to have never played. His backup Bruce Davis was lost for the year at Arizona. Tyler Nielsen went down for the year against Michigan State. So Iowa played more than half the season with a true freshman middle linebacker (I can't remember the last time that happened at Iowa...maybe it hasn't in my lifetime) and one third of the season (at a point where Iowa was still 6-2) without it's top two MLB and it's LEO, who was Iowa's best cover linebacker. Two of Iowa's top four linebackers were done before the midway point in the season, then three of the top four were done by the two-thirds mark.
I am eager to see how Kirksey and Hitchens handles the WLB position...they are smaller players than Iowa has used at that position in the Ferentz era, but they are also pretty quick and nimble and might give a boost against the horizontal passing attacks they will see this year. Morris should be a lot better than we last saw him, and Davis will back him up. Nielsen was having a better junior year than AJ Edds had as a junior, and Edds looked like a pro as a sophomore but behind him is Tom Donatell, who has been a defensive back during his time at Iowa and who is still listed as a defensive back on the Iowa roster at 6-2/205.
Whoa...outside of the drop off between Vandenberg to whomever is the #2 quarterback, this might be the next biggest drop off and I don't say that to slight Donatell. A 6-2/205 pound LEO in Iowa's system is hardly ideal.
So stay healthy, backers...this team needs that badly.
