JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
This has been the most entertaining and eventful Big Ten basketball season in at least two decades and that has nothing to do with the fact that Iowa is somewhat relevant again. It's just been a blast.
You would think that with four days remaining in the regular season that one could make a realistic projection of the Big Ten Tournament bracket. Most years you can do just that that, but this year? Not a chance.
Right now it's near impossible to predict which seed is more favorable for Iowa or any team because there is still so much up in the air. It's fascinating and fantastic all at the same time, or the exact opposite of what the Big Ten football season was.
Even though this will likely turn out to be an exercise in futility some three days from now, I don't mind wading into the pool one last time.
First, here are the games that remain in the Big Ten and my predicted result, followed by what the Big Ten standings would look like if I am correct on each outcome.
TONIGHT
Penn State at Northwestern: PENN STATE The BCS Pillow Fight of the Year?
Wisconsin at Michigan State: MICHIGAN STATE This is a loser leave town match; the loser is out of the title chase. The winner could share in the title if Michigan beats Indiana on Saturday and they smoke the cupcake they have on Sunday (MSU v NW, Wis v PSU)
SATURDAY
Minnesota at Purdue: If I believed Minnesota had heart, I'd pick them. PURDUE
Nebraska at Iowa: Iowa wins, gains some revenge.
SUNDAY
Wisconsin at Penn State: Wisconsin
Indiana at Michigan: Wow. Can't wait for this. Head says take Indina, gut is taking Michigan
Illinois at Ohio State: Illini smoked OSU in Champaign in January. This is not then. OSU
Northwestern at Michigan State: Michigan State
Here are the standings if what I just predicted takes place:
t-1: Indiana 13-5
Michigan 13-5
Ohio State 13-5
Michigan State 13-5
5. Wisconsin 12-6
6. Iowa 9-9
t7. Purdue
Illinois
Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Penn State</em>
In this scenario, here is how the seeding would break out. I have done the math and it matches up with what the <a href="http://www.theb1gtime.com/teams/big-ten/hoosiers-loss-means-confusion-reigns-in-big-ten-seeding-scenarios.html">folks at TheB1GTime laid out in greater detail</a>. If you want more details, click on that link.
<strong>BIG TEN SEEDS</strong>
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Purdue (wins the three-team tiebreaker)
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Penn State
Here is how that bracket looks:
When it looked like Wisconsin was the likely three seed, before it lost at home to Purdue this week and before Ohio State beat Indiana, the six seed was real attractive. Usually the 6 seed is better because it plays the three seed which is a better draw than the one or two. Wisconsin is the best draw for Iowa among the teams currently in contention for the league title, at least in my opinion. However, if Iowa beats Nebraska on Saturday it will be seeded no lower than the seven and I don't think the Badgers get the two seed. They still could, IF they win tonight against Michigan State then on the road at Penn State this weekend and IF Indiana beats Michigan on the road, if Iowa beats Nebraska and Minnesota beats Purdue. Yeah, it's this crazy with four days left. What a zany, nutty year this is.
Again, click on that link above if you want to see what other scenarios could play out among the first five seeds, but know that Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State will be the first five seeds.
If Iowa wins on Saturday, it is no worse than the seven seed. If Iowa wins and Minnesota wins, Iowa is the seven. If Iowa wins and Minnesota loses, Iowa is the six. If Iowa wins, Minnesota wins and Illinois wins at Ohio State, Iowa is the six by virtue of having a 2-1 combined record against Minnesota and Illinois, which is a higher winning percentage than Minnesota and Illinois' combined record against Iowa and the other. Make sense? Good.
As for the above prediction, that would mean a first round game against Northwestern, which I am fine with but a second round game against Michigan. The Wolverines were the only team in the Big Ten to blitz Iowa this year. They beat the Hawks like Todd Lickliter was still on the bench. I just don't like that match up nor do I want any part of seeing Trey Burke again with Iowa's possible NCAA at large life hanging in the balance. Give me Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State, in that order, just not Michigan.
The good news? I won't possibly go eight for eight in this predictions, so something totally different will become the reality, possibly as early as tonight at 10pm.
You would think that with four days remaining in the regular season that one could make a realistic projection of the Big Ten Tournament bracket. Most years you can do just that that, but this year? Not a chance.
Right now it's near impossible to predict which seed is more favorable for Iowa or any team because there is still so much up in the air. It's fascinating and fantastic all at the same time, or the exact opposite of what the Big Ten football season was.
Even though this will likely turn out to be an exercise in futility some three days from now, I don't mind wading into the pool one last time.
First, here are the games that remain in the Big Ten and my predicted result, followed by what the Big Ten standings would look like if I am correct on each outcome.
TONIGHT
Penn State at Northwestern: PENN STATE The BCS Pillow Fight of the Year?
Wisconsin at Michigan State: MICHIGAN STATE This is a loser leave town match; the loser is out of the title chase. The winner could share in the title if Michigan beats Indiana on Saturday and they smoke the cupcake they have on Sunday (MSU v NW, Wis v PSU)
SATURDAY
Minnesota at Purdue: If I believed Minnesota had heart, I'd pick them. PURDUE
Nebraska at Iowa: Iowa wins, gains some revenge.
SUNDAY
Wisconsin at Penn State: Wisconsin
Indiana at Michigan: Wow. Can't wait for this. Head says take Indina, gut is taking Michigan
Illinois at Ohio State: Illini smoked OSU in Champaign in January. This is not then. OSU
Northwestern at Michigan State: Michigan State
Here are the standings if what I just predicted takes place:
t-1: Indiana 13-5
Michigan 13-5
Ohio State 13-5
Michigan State 13-5
5. Wisconsin 12-6
6. Iowa 9-9
t7. Purdue
Illinois
Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Penn State</em>
In this scenario, here is how the seeding would break out. I have done the math and it matches up with what the <a href="http://www.theb1gtime.com/teams/big-ten/hoosiers-loss-means-confusion-reigns-in-big-ten-seeding-scenarios.html">folks at TheB1GTime laid out in greater detail</a>. If you want more details, click on that link.
<strong>BIG TEN SEEDS</strong>
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Purdue (wins the three-team tiebreaker)
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Penn State
Here is how that bracket looks:
When it looked like Wisconsin was the likely three seed, before it lost at home to Purdue this week and before Ohio State beat Indiana, the six seed was real attractive. Usually the 6 seed is better because it plays the three seed which is a better draw than the one or two. Wisconsin is the best draw for Iowa among the teams currently in contention for the league title, at least in my opinion. However, if Iowa beats Nebraska on Saturday it will be seeded no lower than the seven and I don't think the Badgers get the two seed. They still could, IF they win tonight against Michigan State then on the road at Penn State this weekend and IF Indiana beats Michigan on the road, if Iowa beats Nebraska and Minnesota beats Purdue. Yeah, it's this crazy with four days left. What a zany, nutty year this is.
Again, click on that link above if you want to see what other scenarios could play out among the first five seeds, but know that Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State will be the first five seeds.
If Iowa wins on Saturday, it is no worse than the seven seed. If Iowa wins and Minnesota wins, Iowa is the seven. If Iowa wins and Minnesota loses, Iowa is the six. If Iowa wins, Minnesota wins and Illinois wins at Ohio State, Iowa is the six by virtue of having a 2-1 combined record against Minnesota and Illinois, which is a higher winning percentage than Minnesota and Illinois' combined record against Iowa and the other. Make sense? Good.
As for the above prediction, that would mean a first round game against Northwestern, which I am fine with but a second round game against Michigan. The Wolverines were the only team in the Big Ten to blitz Iowa this year. They beat the Hawks like Todd Lickliter was still on the bench. I just don't like that match up nor do I want any part of seeing Trey Burke again with Iowa's possible NCAA at large life hanging in the balance. Give me Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State, in that order, just not Michigan.
The good news? I won't possibly go eight for eight in this predictions, so something totally different will become the reality, possibly as early as tonight at 10pm.
Last edited:
)... Iowa doesn't matchup well against them, doesn't matter how they are playing now. And they looked good during their comeback at Purdue. Didn't get rattled.
