Minnesota's Win Over Indiana Complicates Iowa's Big Ten Tourney Seed?

[JonDMiller]

Minnesota beat Indiana on Tuesday night, an outcome that was not expected. What does that do to my projected Big Ten tournament bracket and the Hawkeyes position?

It moves Minnesota into a better position and drops Iowa down into a worse position. A much worse position.

Here is my projected Big Ten finishes

1. Indiana 15-3 (Hoosiers beat MSU, lost at MN; I picked reverse)
2. Michigan State 13-5 (sweep of Wisconsin)
3. Wisconsin 13-5
4. Michigan 13-5 (L to Wisconsin, MSU wins head to head tie break)
5. Ohio State 12-6
6. Minnesota 9-9 (wins tiebreaker with Iowa)
7. Iowa 9-9
8. Illinois 8-10
9. Purdue 7-11
10. Nebraska 4-14 (wins tie break with NW)
11. Northwestern 4-14
12. Penn State 1-17

Minnesota’s win over Indiana now gives them an extra win I didn’t see coming. Iowa was going to lose a tiebreaker with Minnesota given the Gophers win over Michigan State earlier in the year, regardless of the Indiana win. That hammers it home. Iowa needs to do no worse than 3-1 the rest of the way and hope Minnesota loses an extra game it should win (a possibility, say at Nebraska?) in order to get the #6 seed, which is preferred.

As it sits now, I still have Iowa finishing 3-1 the rest of the season. That includes a win tonight against Purdue, a loss at Indiana (the Hoosiers host Iowa Saturday, their first game back on the court after the Minnesota loss) and wins at home against Illinois and Nebraska to close out the season. If they do that, they should fare no worse than seventh, barring Illinois beat Ohio State in Columbus.

The 7th seed would match Iowa up against Nebraska for the third time in three weeks with the winner facing Michigan State. I don’t mind Iowa playing the Spartans again, as the first time around they did so without Devyn Marble and lost by three in Iowa City. That said, I’d rather play Northwestern in the first round with Wisconsin in the second round. It’s a more favorable matchup to get to the semi’s, in my opinion, and Iowa is going to have to win two games in the Big Ten tournament for NCAA bubble consideration.

In reality, Iowa probably needs to win all of its regular season games, including the game at Indiana, plus win two in Chicago to make the tournament and that just isn’t going to happen. Or, they just need to win four games in four days and secure the league’s automatic bid, another outcome I don’t see happening.

At this point, my preseason prediction of 20-11 & 9-9 with a return trip to the NIT seems to still be on target.

 

[OUTofTOWNHAWK]

I dont think thats much worse as they could beat nebby, sparty, then wisconsin. Sparty is soo overrated. Sparty is playing better but Iowa straight up handed them a game. I would rather play those teams than see OSU, Meeeshegan, or Indy.

 

[BrueCrew3]

I dont think thats much worse as they could beat nebby, sparty, then wisconsin. Sparty is soo overrated. Sparty is playing better but Iowa straight up handed them a game. I would rather play those teams than see OSU, Meeeshegan, or Indy.

It wasn't straight up. The Hawks were missing a key player in RDM. I think Iowa wins that game if he's healthy and in the lineup.

If the Hawks are healthy, I like our chances against either Bucky or Sparty. I'm not saying we win, but either will be a good game.

GO HAWKS!!!

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Rule of thumb - Iowa must always play Michigan teams on Fridays in the BTT.

 

[ssckelley]

Wait a minute, you predicted a 9-9 conference record?

Jon, you are awesome at this. Look into your crystal ball and tell us how the football team will do.

 

[smbhawk1]

Wait a minute, you predicted a 9-9 conference record?

Jon, you are awesome at this. Look into your crystal ball and tell us how the football team will do.

Don't worry. I am sure he will remind us multiple times how good he was at guessing this year.

 

[volhawk50]

If Minnesota loses to Nebraska and Purdue, the bracket will be perfect. Puts us against NW then Wisconsin in the second round, plus Indiana plays Illinois and Michigan plays Ohio St in the second round.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

As I laid it out last week, after the Nebby meltdown, the only thing I differ with Jon on is, I just don't see the Hawks upsetting Illannoy at home. Illannoy is back to playing well enough that they are taking care of business against the teams they should beat. Meanwhile, Iowa continues it's diluted rotations and blown leads.

Illannoy goes 2-1 (home W vs Nebby, road W @ Iowa, road loss @ OSU) to finish 9-9, while Iowa goes 2-2 (home W's vs Purdue and Nebby, home L vs IL, road beat-down @ Indy). Illannoy gets the 7 and Iowa gets the 8.

It still comes out the same, tho, as Iowa will beat Purdue, 1st round of BTT, just as they would Nebby. Most likely, they lose 2nd round to Indy, just as they most likely would to MSU.

Then again, maybe the #8 seed, and facing Indy 2nd round, would be better for Iowa.
1) The ol' "tough to beat a team 3 times" cliche;
2) Indy has a tendency to go soft and stray its offense away from Zeller at times.
3) Contain Oladipo and guard the 3 and I like Iowa matching up against Indy better than against MSU.
4) MSU will just beat Iowa up and Iowa has struggled against physical teams.

The more I lay this out, I think the lesser of 2 evils would be the #8 seed for Iowa. I think they have a better chance of beating Indy than MSU to get 2 wins in the BTT.

Not that it really matters in the end but it would secure them a higher seed in the NIT, which means more home games and a better chance at a deep run toward MSG.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Iowa losing at Nebraska complicated our seeding. No game is safe especially for us
Fran always finds a way to this mind numbing rotation McCabe, May, Clemmons, Gabe and Ogelsby. I have no idea why.

As for Illinois they will be coming to Carver motivated to improve seed. That is going to be an interesting game. I would say that Illinois is in even if they finish 8-10.

 

[storminspank]

Iowa losing at Nebraska complicated our seeding. No game is safe especially for us
Fran always finds a way to this mind numbing rotation McCabe, May, Clemmons, Gabe and Ogelsby. I have no idea why.

As for Illinois they will be coming to Carver motivated to improve seed. That is going to be an interesting game. I would say that Illinois is in even if they finish 8-10.

Completely agree.

 

[JonDMiller]

Don't worry. I am sure he will remind us multiple times how good he was at guessing this year.

I might, because 100,000 of you are good at reminding me when I get it wrong

 

[ILHawk]

I wouldn't bank Purdue yet.

 

[ssckelley]

Don't worry. I am sure he will remind us multiple times how good he was at guessing this year.

He reminds us at least once per week.

To be fair we all did give him a pretty hard time when he predicted a 12-0 season for the football team a couple of years ago and they finished 8-5.

 

[djwoody98]

We lost to Nebraska and we're worried about seeding? The league is tough, there will be no easy putts. Beat the Boilers!

 

[DDThompson]

Who's worried about seeding?

Doing the typical thing and making conversation of trying to figure the best matchups to make a run in the BTT.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

As I laid it out last week, after the Nebby meltdown, the only thing I differ with Jon on is, I just don't see the Hawks upsetting Illannoy at home. Illannoy is back to playing well enough that they are taking care of business against the teams they should beat. Meanwhile, Iowa continues it's diluted rotations and blown leads.

Illannoy goes 2-1 (home W vs Nebby, road W @ Iowa, road loss @ OSU) to finish 9-9, while Iowa goes 2-2 (home W's vs Purdue and Nebby, home L vs IL, road beat-down @ Indy). Illannoy gets the 7 and Iowa gets the 8.

It still comes out the same, tho, as Iowa will beat Purdue, 1st round of BTT, just as they would Nebby. Most likely, they lose 2nd round to Indy, just as they most likely would to MSU.

Then again, maybe the #8 seed, and facing Indy 2nd round, would be better for Iowa.
1) The ol' "tough to beat a team 3 times" cliche;
2) Indy has a tendency to go soft and stray its offense away from Zeller at times.
3) Contain Oladipo and guard the 3 and I like Iowa matching up against Indy better than against MSU.
4) MSU will just beat Iowa up and Iowa has struggled against physical teams.

The more I lay this out, I think the lesser of 2 evils would be the #8 seed for Iowa. I think they have a better chance of beating Indy than MSU to get 2 wins in the BTT.

Not that it really matters in the end but it would secure them a higher seed in the NIT, which means more home games and a better chance at a deep run toward MSG.

Let's see if you still feel the same way after Iowa plays @Indiana.. Iowa played MSU & Indiana tough in Carver, so it's hard to say, but I just feel Indiana is the better team, so I think I'd rather see MSU. Just a gut feeling. Either way, Iowa will have a very tough Friday game.

Is there any chance Wisconsin can work its way up to the 2 seed? Just looked at the standings and it's a 3-way tie for 2nd place (MSU, Wisky, Michigan). Three key games:

Wisconsin @MSU
MSU @Michigan
Indiana @Michigan

Not sure what the tiebreakers would be, but it's conceivable Iowa could play Wisconsin in the Friday 2 vs. 7 game.

I wouldn't write of the Illinois game just yet, either. Playing that game at home is much different than a road game.. I think Minnesota can attest to that. That team is Jekyll & Hyde - Dr. Jekyll at home, and Mr. Hyde on the road.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Here's another possibility that's even better for Iowa ...
--Indy could go 2-1 (W's = Iowa, OSU, L= @ Mich) = 14-4;
--Wisky goes 3-0 (Purdue, @MSU, @Psu) = 14-4;
--Mich goes 4-0 (@ PSU, MSU, @ Purdue, Indy) = 14-4;
--MSU goes 1-2 (L= @ Mich and home vs Wisky, W = NwU) = 12-6;
--OSU goes 2-1 (W's = @NwU and Illannoy, L = @ Indy) = 12-6.

Wisky, 1-0 vs both Indy and Michigan jumps to the #1 seed. Indy, split with Mich but 2-0 vs MSU gets the #2 seed. Mich get the #3 seed. Maintaining Iowa at the #8 sees them beat Purdue 1st round, then face #1 Wisky - the best matchup for Iowa of all the top seeds. If Iowa gets past Wisky in round 2, they would face the winner of MSU - OSU in round 3. IF they can catch them on an off day, that puts Iowa in the championship against Indy or Michigan, from the other side.

If it's Indy ... maybe we see Mel get that last second block, ala Reggie in 2001?

If your head's not spinning too much digesting this (unlikely) scenario, cue Aerosmith's "Dream On".

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Here's another possibility that's even better for Iowa ...
--Indy could go 2-1 (W's = Iowa, OSU, L= @ Mich) = 14-4;
--Wisky goes 3-0 (Purdue, @MSU, @Psu) = 14-4;
--Mich goes 4-0 (@ PSU, MSU, @ Purdue, Indy) = 14-4;
--MSU goes 1-2 (L= @ Mich and home vs Wisky, W = NwU) = 12-6;
--OSU goes 2-1 (W's = @NwU and Illannoy, L = @ Indy) = 12-6.

Wisky, 1-0 vs both Indy and Michigan jumps to the #1 seed. Indy, split with Mich but 2-0 vs MSU gets the #2 seed. Mich get the #3 seed. Maintaining Iowa at the #8 sees them beat Purdue 1st round, then face #1 Wisky - the best matchup for Iowa of all the top seeds. If Iowa gets past Wisky in round 2, they would face the winner of MSU - OSU in round 3. IF they can catch them on an off day, that puts Iowa in the championship against Indy or Michigan, from the other side.

If it's Indy ... maybe we see Mel get that last second block, ala Reggie in 2001?

If your head's not spinning too much digesting this (unlikely) scenario, cue Aerosmith's "Dream On".

I'll have to take your word for it on the seeding.

That would sound like a pretty good setup for the Hawks. Indiana is a terrific team, obviously, but has shown they are not invincible, and Iowa has shown the ability to play with most anybody, so you never know?

That's the beauty of the conference tournament - everybody will be going to Chicago with something to play for. A lucky break here, an upset there, get hot and anything can happen. I remember a very medicore Georgia team winning the SEC Tournament a couple years back and stealing the automatic bid.

The year Alford's team won 4 games in 4 days, PSU upset MSU and helped clear the path for Iowa a little bit. So things can definitely break your way in tournament play.

 

[storminspank]

Here's another possibility that's even better for Iowa ...
--Indy could go 2-1 (W's = Iowa, OSU, L= @ Mich) = 14-4;
--Wisky goes 3-0 (Purdue, @MSU, @Psu) = 14-4;
--Mich goes 4-0 (@ PSU, MSU, @ Purdue, Indy) = 14-4;
--MSU goes 1-2 (L= @ Mich and home vs Wisky, W = NwU) = 12-6;
--OSU goes 2-1 (W's = @NwU and Illannoy, L = @ Indy) = 12-6.

Wisky, 1-0 vs both Indy and Michigan jumps to the #1 seed. Indy, split with Mich but 2-0 vs MSU gets the #2 seed. Mich get the #3 seed. Maintaining Iowa at the #8 sees them beat Purdue 1st round, then face #1 Wisky - the best matchup for Iowa of all the top seeds. If Iowa gets past Wisky in round 2, they would face the winner of MSU - OSU in round 3. IF they can catch them on an off day, that puts Iowa in the championship against Indy or Michigan, from the other side.

If it's Indy ... maybe we see Mel get that last second block, ala Reggie in 2001?

If your head's not spinning too much digesting this (unlikely) scenario, cue Aerosmith's "Dream On".

From what I understand, Wisconsin still has a chance to win the BTT with the Indiana loss to Minnesota.
I haven't played out all the possibilities, but would be interesting to see the line w/ Wisc as the #1 seed.

 

[tksirius]

Don't worry people. I got the non-con record right and I predicted 10-8 conf so we'll finish 4-0. Can't wait for that win at Indy!!