Miller: Next Coach In: Who Replaces Parker?

hawkfan33 said:
Chad why do you think Kirk is a percentages guy? He seems like the kind of guy who would be against any kind of advance statistics. I would love for you to show me "the percentages" which show that punting from inside your opponents 40 is ever a good idea, yet we did that at least three times this season. Kirk is overly conservative. And no one gives a **** how much high school football you watch, we're talking about college football here.
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This is almost to rich to sully with commentary...........I'm discussing the merits of the most successful Iowa coach in history on a message board with some chap I don't know and he is going to tell ME who gives a !@@$!@#$......let that sink in a minute??!?!
　
Risk aversion is always percentage based, period!! And that is what you guys call KF, right...risk adversed?!. Never mind what we have all seen him do, some have forgot, some over state obviously, but I have also watched 50 plus Pro games this year and 100 plus College.....seen teams punt at the 40 more often than not. Way more often than not, so have you!
　
Aaaaannnnnnnnnddddd I''ve seen KF go for it on 4th down more this year than EVER...Of course that doesn't fit the facade I know, but true all the same. But of course you know that too.
　
See you guys are desperate to put your finger on it, but you are not....now this is shocking I know....not the best coach for Iowa and you do not...again shocking....know more than the people around kf who give him advice. I know it is hard to imagine that coaches don't know more than the Internet guys calling for their heads, but it is true.
　
Chad
 
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cmhawks99 said:
Of course the Baylor thing surprises you. It doesn't fit the paradigm of what people think.
　
As far as the examples thing, yeah no kidding. Its why I get so dang tired of reading people trying to use them and then they cry foul when you counter them with you own obvious ones.
　
Finally your final question is a loaded one...I propose with under a minute left at your own 30, you'd be shocked the amount of times coaches do indeed go to over time. In fact I've seen it happen a lot in the Pro's just this year, so please....I know you and I have agreed, before, but seriously I'm a pretty aware of any counter argument I may leave out there, and I will give you credit for grabbing what many dont, but although the "over aggressive" thing appears to work, the truth is people have no clue what is or isn't aggressive unless of course it doesn't work. Most of the critics are the benefactors of 20/20 hind sight.
　
I honestly can not tell you how many times just this year I have seen a team (lots in high school obviously) turn it over on the own side of their field near the half.
　
Truly I don't think you get KF....as many have said, he is a percentage kind of guy....if the percentages as you guys often like to pretend were sooooo obvious he'd make the call. You think he is conservative but in reality he plays the percentages for the most part and every now in then he wings it.....
　
Keep in mind I like your stuff and I'm not against you, but please don't act like I'm one of these other cats who is easily duped or thrown off the scent....kf is not nearly as conservative, nor as different as most of the successful coaches. It really saddens me to see people so tricked by this.
　
Chad
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The NFL is sooo much harder to run a successful 2 minute drill because the clock doesn't stop on 1st downs.
Ferentz wants to play the percentages but calculating them is not his strong suit
You kind of dodged my question by changing the situation. Come on man give me an answer :)
 
PCHawk said:
The NFL is sooo much harder to run a successful 2 minute drill because the clock doesn't stop on 1st downs.
Ferentz wants to play the percentages but calculating them is not his strong suit
You kind of dodged my question by changing the situation. Come on man give me an answer :)
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You are seriously saying he calculates them wrong, seriously...?!??! I give up. I hope he gets fired I honestly can't read on more thread like this....that's why I disappear so much.

Then we will start all over with the next guy when he loses....the good news is the same basic tenements will still apply. And do you know how I know....

Because they are saying the same stuff on every board in America after their team loses, because we all know more than the coaches....

What was the question again?

Chad
 
I am not a better coach then Kirk but I am WAY better at figuring percentages then him. He struggles bad at that aspect of his job. It seams like you are trying to argue that Kirk isn't conservative but im not sure that him being conservative is even debatable
 
cmhawks99 said:
You are seriously saying he calculates them wrong, seriously...?!??! I give up. I hope he gets fired I honestly can't read on more thread like this....that's why I disappear so much.

Then we will start all over with the next guy when he loses....the good news is the same basic tenements will still apply. And do you know how I know....

Because they are saying the same stuff on every board in America after their team loses, because we all know more than the coaches....

What was the question again?

Chad
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Just because he is bad at one aspect of coaching doesn't mean he is a bad coach and it certainly doesn't mean he should be fired. yes he calculates them wrong and anyone who disagrees with that calculates them wrong too. Not a big deal some people just don't understand odds
 
PCHawk said:
Just because he is bad at one aspect of coaching doesn't mean he is a bad coach and it certainly doesn't mean he should be fired. yes he calculates them wrong and anyone who disagrees with that calculates them wrong too. Not a big deal some people just don't understand odds
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Chad doesn't actually know what any percentages are, he just goes by what he sees in his exhaustive high school film study sessions.
 
PCHawk said:
The NFL is sooo much harder to run a successful 2 minute drill because the clock doesn't stop on 1st downs.
Ferentz wants to play the percentages but calculating them is not his strong suit
You kind of dodged my question by changing the situation. Come on man give me an answer :)
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Oh I remember 1st and 10 at their own 20 with 2 minutes left.....I'd say that team wins more often, than note and if you have the stats I'd enjoy them. And oh by the way that ain't what happened at tOSU and KF has often times got froggy in that situation and that again ain't at all what people are comparing too.

Once again I'll say this.....more often than not with around 1 minute left inside your own 35 you are flirting with disaster.

But again that's the problem with fans that switch the variables from what they truly where...

Chad
 
hawkfan33 said:
Chad doesn't actually know what any percentages are, he just goes by what he sees in his exhaustive high school film study sessions.
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And neither do you.......belligerence doesn't strengthen your case, you do know that right?!

Chad
 
The question was if a team has the ball at the 20 with 2 minutes left who wins more often in regulation, the team with the ball or the team without it. I see it all over football. A coach passes up on their best chance to win the game so they can delay the point where they for sure lose. Example, a team down 13 with 4 minutes left has 4th and 10 from their own 15. Teams will punt the ball because if they go for it and don't convert they have no chance to win. It's true that if you don't get the 1st you will for sure lose but teams punt anyway and prey for a miracle that never comes. Going for it there is extremely risky but when you are down 13 with 4 minutes left there shouldn't be an option
 
PCHawk said:
Just because he is bad at one aspect of coaching doesn't mean he is a bad coach and it certainly doesn't mean he should be fired. yes he calculates them wrong and anyone who disagrees with that calculates them wrong too. Not a big deal some people just don't understand odds
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I don't think you get the implication here PC. And yes I understand your calculations and that is smart of you. But not earth shattering to anyone of intelligence and it wouldn't be to KF or one of his people. We have a tendency in life to sit on the outside and think we are on to something that no one has ever seen before or done.

There is nothing new in life anymore...well that's not entirely true, obviously there is advanced physics and meta physics and quantum mechanics and the such that is always being expanded and that is simply because we haven't even tapped the totality of what it all is yet. But in things such as these nothing is new per se......

Back on point here PC.....if.....again IF, KF is losing games because of THIS, then he is a bad coach and he needs fired, period. Now I don't believe it, but if you guys do, he absolutely needs to go and now!! THAT'S the implication.

Chad
 
cmhawks99 said:
Oh I remember 1st and 10 at their own 20 with 2 minutes left.....I'd say that team wins more often, than note and if you have the stats I'd enjoy them. And oh by the way that ain't what happened at tOSU and KF has often times got froggy in that situation and that again ain't at all what people are comparing too.

Once again I'll say this.....more often than not with around 1 minute left inside your own 35 you are flirting with disaster.

But again that's the problem with fans that switch the variables from what they truly where...

Chad
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Define disaster. I would say in Columbus with a freshman quarterback in a game that you are lucky to be tied in, nothing that can happen can be defined disaster. If you try to score and throw a pick six you don't get a chance for a less then 50 % chance to win in overtime. I would not call that disaster I would call that losing a close game
 
PCHawk said:
The question was if a team has the ball at the 20 with 2 minutes left who wins more often in regulation, the team with the ball or the team without it. I see it all over football. A coach passes up on their best chance to win the game so they can delay the point where they for sure lose. Example, a team down 13 with 4 minutes left has 4th and 10 from their own 15. Teams will punt the ball because if they go for it and don't convert they have no chance to win. It's true that if you don't get the 1st you will for sure lose but teams punt anyway and prey for a miracle that never comes. Going for it there is extremely risky but when you are down 13 with 4 minutes left there shouldn't be an option
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Yep saw Bobby Stoops do that very thing last year vs Mizzou....I doubt KF would honestly and in fact it seems he went for it in a similar situation this year ...of course we did lose. Help me, am I all wet.

Chad
 
cmhawks99 said:
I don't think you get the implication here PC. And yes I understand your calculations and that is smart of you. But not earth shattering to anyone of intelligence and it wouldn't be to KF or one of his people. We have a tendency in life to sit on the outside and think we are on to something that no one has ever seen before or done.

There is nothing new in life anymore...well that's not entirely true, obviously there is advanced physics and meta physics and quantum mechanics and the such that is always being expanded and that is simply because we haven't even tapped the totality of what it all is yet. But in things such as these nothing is new per se......

Back on point here PC.....if.....again IF, KF is losing games because of THIS, then he is a bad coach and he needs fired, period. Now I don't believe it, but if you guys do, he absolutely needs to go and now!! THAT'S the implication.

Chad
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I'm not saying i'm on to something new. Actually i'm saying the opposite. This should be common sense and Kirk and apparently no one on is staff seem to understand it.
As far as whether or not he should be fired, again it's a percentage thing. Does Kirk's strong suits win more games then his weak ones lose? I think they do therefore he should not be fired
 
cmhawks99 said:
Yep saw Bobby Stoops do that very thing last year vs Mizzou....I doubt KF would honestly and in fact it seems he went for it in a similar situation this year ...of course we did lose. Help me, am I all wet.

Chad
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We had that situation it the outback bowl where the refs screwed us. We punted down 2 scores late in the game. I was screaming at the tv while we were punting. The Florida guy fumbled the punt and we got it so it actually worked out for us. I'm not one to decide if it was the right move using hind sight so even tho it worked out i still think it was the wrong move
 
PCHawk said:
We had that situation it the outback bowl where the refs screwed us. We punted down 2 scores late in the game. I was screaming at the tv while we were punting. The Florida guy fumbled the punt and we got it so it actually worked out for us. I'm not one to decide if it was the right move using hind sight so even tho it worked out i still think it was the wrong move
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Forgot about that but in that situation, with that team and that D and that punter I'd likley have done the same.

At 4th down with less than 3 minutes left no, because it really doesn't matter at that point. I like my chances in the other scenario.

Chad
 
cmhawks99 said:
Forgot about that but in that situation, with that team and that D and that punter I'd likley have done the same.

At 4th down with less than 3 minutes left no, because it really doesn't matter at that point. I like my chances in the other scenario.

Chad
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It was extremely late in the game. We still needed an onside kick to have a chance
 
PCHawk said:
I'm not saying i'm on to something new. Actually i'm saying the opposite. This should be common sense and Kirk and apparently no one on is staff seem to understand it.
As far as whether or not he should be fired, again it's a percentage thing. Does Kirk's strong suits win more games then his weak ones lose? I think they do therefore he should not be fired
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Listen I do want to thank-you. Obviously you get where I am coming from and you are well read and reasonable with your thoughts and I can get where you are coming from. You are also not hard line and ridiculous like these others and surely you see the difference and what irritates me.

With that said what you are proposing is a trade off and that becomes a lesser of two evils situation or more to the truth are we in these games because of KF and his philosophies or are we actually losing them because of them. If it is the 1st then we need to deal, if not then he needs fired.

Now your thought is obvioulsy if he fixes this, then ...and he can change, of course. And you are right I'm not arguing his conservative nature and it isn't really debatable.....I am arguing that many are missing he does take chances and he is NOT so conservative he is losing games because of this.

Chad
 
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